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Shontel Brown the Est Dem supported candidate for the upcoming Ohio elections against the popular Progressive Dem Nina Turner was uncovered using fake applause at her rally event 

Nina Turner is a strong advocate for M4A, including much stronger action on the Climate Crisis which fly's in the face of the Establishment Dems of Biden/Hillary that support the watered down policies of Shontel Brown, fortunately so far Nina is clearly ahead by far in the polls with Dem voters 

See where this goes, Brown having such strong backing of the Establishment big hitters like Hillary Clinton, even though Turner is popular with Dem Voters, this concerted effort by the Est Dems (backed by Est Media like CNN) may put Nina Turner in a difficult position in the Ohio race       

Last edited by Rab - on 27 July 2021

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Rep Senator Adam Kinzinger is one of the last Republicans left taking responsibility for January 6, the incredibly worrying/sad thing is, he is almost alone :/ 

The GOP have become a partly that looks to Conspiracy Movements and the toxic governance of its people   



Rab said:

Rep Senator Adam Kinzinger is one of the last Republicans left taking responsibility for January 6, the incredibly worrying/sad thing is, he is almost alone :/ 

The GOP have become a partly that looks to Conspiracy Movements and the toxic governance of its people.

I believe many republican lawmakers do not realize in the slightest yet how big the can of worms truly is that they're unleashing. They are so dead-set at stopping and harming the democrats in every which way that they don't see the fallout of what they're doing, really as if they were wearing blinkers.



Rab said:

Shontel Brown the Est Dem supported candidate for the upcoming Ohio elections against the popular Progressive Dem Nina Turner was uncovered using fake applause at her rally event 

Nina Turner is a strong advocate for M4A, including much stronger action on the Climate Crisis which fly's in the face of the Establishment Dems of Biden/Hillary that support the watered down policies of Shontel Brown, fortunately so far Nina is clearly ahead by far in the polls with Dem voters 

See where this goes, Brown having such strong backing of the Establishment big hitters like Hillary Clinton, even though Turner is popular with Dem Voters, this concerted effort by the Est Dems (backed by Est Media like CNN) may put Nina Turner in a difficult position in the Ohio race       

I think the real news here is you found a Dimwit Discount David Pakman channel, except his content is trivial outrage bait.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Jumpin said:
Rab said:

Shontel Brown the Est Dem supported candidate for the upcoming Ohio elections against the popular Progressive Dem Nina Turner was uncovered using fake applause at her rally event 

Nina Turner is a strong advocate for M4A, including much stronger action on the Climate Crisis which fly's in the face of the Establishment Dems of Biden/Hillary that support the watered down policies of Shontel Brown, fortunately so far Nina is clearly ahead by far in the polls with Dem voters 

See where this goes, Brown having such strong backing of the Establishment big hitters like Hillary Clinton, even though Turner is popular with Dem Voters, this concerted effort by the Est Dems (backed by Est Media like CNN) may put Nina Turner in a difficult position in the Ohio race       

I think the real news here is you found a Dimwit Discount David Pakman channel, except his content is trivial outrage bait.



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Well it's now been just over six months since Joe Biden was sworn in as president. Thought I'd check Real Clear Politics to see his latest polling average. In doing so every few months, we see a trajectory emerging.

Biden's first polling average a week after being sworn in:

+18

55% approve
37% disapprove

After three months:

+11

53.1% approve
42.1% disapprove

Now, after six months:

+6.4

51.3% approve
44.9% disapprove

That downward trend line is nothing too shocking really. It's pretty normal for any new president to start out broadly popular and then lose a lot of support over the first two or three years of their presidency, only to rebound in the face of overreach by the resurgent rival party in time to win re-election. That's just kind of a normal historical pattern. Trump was an exception to this rule in that even his first RCP average was below 50%. Of course, HE didn't get re-elected. That's because he was never actually popular and in fact had lost the popular vote even in 2016. He never legitimately represented this country or what it believes in. Anyway though, while this downward trajectory we're seeing for Biden so far looks normal on the surface, the details aren't so normal. First of all, Biden's starting polling average to begin with was lower than that of either of the last couple Democratic presidents we've had: lower than Obama's and also lower than Clinton's. And secondly, but just as importantly, something else abnormal is the groups he's losing support among and who he's making up some of the difference with.

Speaking to that second point about the groups, I took a look at the recent survey most representative of overall public opinion at present: the most recent poll by Politico and Morning Consult, which has Biden above water by a margin of 7 percentage points; the closest in the current sample to his present average. Checking out pages 14 to 16, you'll find some remarkable demographic data that should, for any Democrat anyway (I being one of those), be deeply concerning. The first thing I noticed was right at the top, where it showed Biden now more popular with men than women, which is significant when you consider that 58% of registered Democrats are women and even more so when you consider that, frankly, I've never seen another poll before up to now in which a modern Democratic president was better liked by men than by women. Democrats who lack the support of women lose. The second thing I noticed was his drastically increased support among the wealthiest Americans coupled with falling -- indeed now far lower -- support among both middle class and especially working class people. Finally, I also noticed that his support among white Americans has increased compared to last year's presidential election while his support among black and Hispanic Americans has weakened. It cumulatively forms a picture wherein Biden is increasingly supported primarily by wealthy white men and viewed more critically mainly by working class women (hi!), increasingly including the non-white ones. This is very distressing because it suggests that the Democratic Party here in this country appears to be, however more belatedly, on the same basic trajectory as the British Labour Party, which is no longer able to win major elections because they've, ironically, lost the support of the country's working class.

2020 election vs. now:

57% of women voted for Biden
50% of women currently approve of Biden's job performance

45% of men voted for Biden
54% of men currently approve of Biden's job performance

59% of Americans making over $100,000/year approve of Biden's job performance
51% of Americans making between $50,000 and $100,000 approve
49% of Americans making under $50,000 approve

In last year's election, by contrast, Biden got 55% of the working class vote, 56% of the middle class vote, and lost the upper class vote.

41% of white people voted for Biden
45% of white people currently approve of Biden's job performance

87% of black people voted for Biden
78% of black people currently approve of Biden's job performance

65% of Hispanic people voted for Biden
59% of Hispanic people currently approve of Biden's job performance

(2020 exit poll data for reference)

You might've guessed that I've been continuing to follow polling data closely throughout the year. Well I have and what they cumulatively say is that the reasons working class, and increasingly even middle class, people are losing faith in Biden and the Democrats have to do with the fact that they've experienced less economic recovery and also are much more concerned about surging rates of violent crime than wealthier people are, being as they tend to be more directly affected. Women in general are also more concerned about rising crime than men, as are black and Hispanic people more so than white people. The recent resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic in recent weeks is also starting to weigh on support for the nation's current leadership overall, mostly among working class and middle class voters with fewer work-from-home options and often more public-facing occupations.

Let's take the issue of crime, for example. According to the most recent survey by The Economist and YouGov, wherein Americans are asked how serious an issue they consider crime to be at present, here are...

The percentages of people, by demographic group, who replied that they regard crime as a "very important" issue (see page 146):

67% of people making under $50,000/year
67% of people making between $50,000 and $100,000
55% of people making over $100,000

67% of women
63% of men

76% of black people
71% of Hispanic people
Something like 60% of white people

Overall, 65% of respondents described crime as a "very important" issue, compared to 52% who felt the same way about criminal justice reform (see page 147).

Likewise with the coronavirus, according to the aforementioned Politico/Morning Consult poll, Biden is now above water on his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic by a margin of just 5 percentage points (51% approve, 46% disapprove), whereas up until recent weeks this was by far his best issue. He had consistently averaged over 60% job approval on the issue before the delta variant began to dramatically escalate cases in recent weeks. Here again, the demographic breakdown is revealing.

Approval of Biden's Covid response (see page 122):

60% of those making over $100,000/year still approve of Biden's Covid response
51% of those making between $50,000 and $100/000 still approve
47% of those making under $50,000 approve

53% of men still approve of Biden's Covid response
49% of women approve <-- more public-facing jobs here, typically

Economic optimism/pessimism (see page 208):

54% of those making over $100,000/year believe the economy will improve in the next year
41% of those making between $50,000 and $100,000 believe the economy will improve
34% of those making under $50,000/year believe the economy will improve

44% of men believe the economy will improve in the next year
36% of women believe the economy will improve

The bottom line here is that the Rescue Plan (a.k.a. the March Covid relief bill) is really the only notable thing that's been done legislatively by this administration to date and the Biden Administration's once-successful vaccination program has pretty much ground to a halt of late amid broad complacency; a combination of realities for which many people are to blame that has allowed the delta variant to take hold in every U.S. state. But leadership is expected of presidents. More needs to be done in general on a wide variety of issues. The "Biden blitz" that progressives used to talk about back in the early days so far remains one bill passed after six months, most provisions of which will expire by the end of the year. The next Franklin Roosevelt this president is not exactly. And also, the Democrats really need to start taking the recent upswing in violent crime across urban and even suburban America more seriously than wokeness credentials. Wealthy and privileged people who are largely removed from the harsher realities faced by ordinary people might be fine with a lax administration that mainly just virtue signals and talks a lot more than it acts on serious problems facing the nation, but here on the ground people are growing more fearful and pessimistic about both the present state of affairs and the future alike again. Especially people who form the core of the Democratic Party base and whom Biden and the Democrats cannot well afford to keep losing like they're starting to now. Don't be the UK Labour Party. Don't posture. Care! Do something! Listen to what your core constituents are telling you loud and clear! This downward trajectory can be changed or it can become structural. The choice is there before you.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 31 July 2021

Jaicee said:

Well it's now been just over six months since Joe Biden was sworn in as president. Thought I'd check Real Clear Politics to see his latest polling average. In doing so every few months, we see a trajectory emerging.

Biden's first polling average a week after being sworn in:

+18

55% approve
37% disapprove

After three months:

+11

53.1% approve
42.1% disapprove

Now, after six months:

+6.4

51.3% approve
44.9% disapprove

That downward trend line is nothing too shocking really. It's pretty normal for any new president to start out broadly popular and then lose a lot of support over the first two or three years of their presidency, only to rebound in the face of overreach by the resurgent rival party in time to win re-election. That's just kind of a normal historical pattern. Trump was an exception to this rule in that even his first RCP average was below 50%. Of course, HE didn't get re-elected. That's because he was never actually popular and in fact had lost the popular vote even in 2016. He never legitimately represented this country or what it believes in. Anyway though, while this downward trajectory we're seeing for Biden so far looks normal on the surface, the details aren't so normal. First of all, Biden's starting polling average to begin with was lower than that of either of the last couple Democratic presidents we've had: lower than Obama's and also lower than Clinton's. And secondly, but just as importantly, something else abnormal is the groups he's losing support among and who he's making up some of the difference with.

Speaking to that second point about the groups, I took a look at the recent survey most representative of overall public opinion at present: the most recent poll by Politico and Morning Consult, which has Biden above water by a margin of 7 percentage points; the closest in the current sample to his present average. Checking out pages 14 to 16, you'll find some remarkable demographic data that should, for any Democrat anyway (I being one of those), be deeply concerning. The first thing I noticed was right at the top, where it showed Biden now more popular with men than women, which is significant when you consider that 58% of registered Democrats are women and even more so when you consider that, frankly, I've never seen another poll before up to now in which a modern Democratic president was better liked by men than by women. Democrats who lack the support of women lose. The second thing I noticed was his drastically increased support among the wealthiest Americans coupled with falling -- indeed now far lower -- support among both middle class and especially working class people. Finally, I also noticed that his support among white Americans has increased compared to last year's presidential election while his support among black and Hispanic Americans has weakened. It cumulatively forms a picture wherein Biden is increasingly supported primarily by wealthy white men and viewed more critically mainly by working class women (hi!), increasingly including the non-white ones. This is very distressing because it suggests that the Democratic Party here in this country appears to be, however more belatedly, on the same basic trajectory as the British Labour Party, which is no longer able to win major elections because they've, ironically, lost the support of the country's working class.

2020 election vs. now:

57% of women voted for Biden
50% of women currently approve of Biden's job performance

45% of men voted for Biden
54% of men currently approve of Biden's job performance

59% of Americans making over $100,000/year approve of Biden's job performance
51% of Americans making between $50,000 and $100,000 approve
49% of Americans making under $50,000 approve

In last year's election, by contrast, Biden got 55% of the working class vote, 56% of the middle class vote, and lost the upper class vote.

41% of white people voted for Biden
45% of white people currently approve of Biden's job performance

87% of black people voted for Biden
78% of black people currently approve of Biden's job performance

65% of Hispanic people voted for Biden
59% of Hispanic people currently approve of Biden's job performance

(2020 exit poll data for reference)

You might've guessed that I've been continuing to follow polling data closely throughout the year. Well I have and what they cumulatively say is that the reasons working class, and increasingly even middle class, people are losing faith in Biden and the Democrats have to do with the fact that they've experienced less economic recovery and also are much more concerned about surging rates of violent crime than wealthier people are, being as they tend to be more directly affected. Women in general are also more concerned about rising crime than men, as are black and Hispanic people more so than white people. The recent resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic in recent weeks is also starting to weigh on support for the nation's current leadership overall, mostly among working class and middle class voters with fewer work-from-home options and often more public-facing occupations.

Let's take the issue of crime, for example. According to the most recent survey by The Economist and YouGov, wherein Americans are asked how serious an issue they consider crime to be at present, here are...

The percentages of people, by demographic group, who replied that they regard crime as a "very important" issue (see page 146):

67% of people making under $50,000/year
67% of people making between $50,000 and $100,000
55% of people making over $100,000

67% of women
63% of men

76% of black people
71% of Hispanic people
Something like 60% of white people

Overall, 65% of respondents described crime as a "very important" issue, compared to 52% who felt the same way about criminal justice reform (see page 147).

Likewise with the coronavirus, according to the aforementioned Politico/Morning Consult poll, Biden is now above water on his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic by a margin of just 5 percentage points (51% approve, 46% disapprove), whereas up until recent weeks this was by far his best issue. He had consistently averaged over 60% job approval on the issue before the delta variant began to dramatically escalate cases in recent weeks. Here again, the demographic breakdown is revealing.

Approval of Biden's Covid response (see page 122):

60% of those making over $100,000/year still approve of Biden's Covid response
51% of those making between $50,000 and $100/000 still approve
47% of those making under $50,000 approve

53% of men still approve of Biden's Covid response
49% of women approve <-- more public-facing jobs here, typically

Economic optimism/pessimism (see page 208):

54% of those making over $100,000/year believe the economy will improve in the next year
41% of those making between $50,000 and $100,000 believe the economy will improve
34% of those making under $50,000/year believe the economy will improve

44% of men believe the economy will improve in the next year
36% of women believe the economy will improve

The bottom line here is that the Rescue Plan (a.k.a. the March Covid relief bill) is really the only notable thing that's been done legislatively by this administration to date and the Biden Administration's once-successful vaccination program has pretty much ground to a halt of late amid broad complacency; a combination of realities for which many people are to blame that has allowed the delta variant to take hold in every U.S. state. But leadership is expected of presidents. More needs to be done in general on a wide variety of issues. The "Biden blitz" that progressives used to talk about back in the early days so far remains one bill passed after six months, most provisions of which will expire by the end of the year. The next Franklin Roosevelt this president is not exactly. And also, the Democrats really need to start taking the recent upswing in violent crime across urban and even suburban America more seriously than wokeness credentials. Wealthy and privileged people who are largely removed from the harsher realities faced by ordinary people might be fine with a lax administration that mainly just virtue signals and talks a lot more than it acts on serious problems facing the nation, but here on the ground people are growing more fearful and pessimistic about both the present state of affairs and the future alike again. Especially people who form the core of the Democratic Party base and whom Biden and the Democrats cannot well afford to keep losing like they're starting to now. Don't be the UK Labour Party. Don't posture. Care! Do something! Listen to what your core constituents are telling you loud and clear! This downward trajectory can be changed or it can become structural. The choice is there before you.

Great post!

Just wanted to add this 538 page which tracks and charts the approval/disapproval rating of a president over his/her entire tenure. As such, rather than just have some specific points in time, there's a graph with all the ups and down - though truth been told, Biden's approval has been surprisingly stable so far and just the disapproval has risen out of the formerly undecided: 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

And just for comparison, here's Trump's old chart:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/



Jaicee said:

Well it's now been just over six months since Joe Biden was sworn in as president. Thought I'd check Real Clear Politics to see his latest polling average. In doing so every few months, we see a trajectory emerging.

Polling really only works in aggregate (and even then it has issues), so it is hard for me to really accept the results of a single poll/pollster as proof of any big changes in preferences. Further, you can't really just put approval numbers over voting trends and expect a 1:1 trend. As voting is a comparison, you may disapprove of someone and still vote for them because the other candidate is worse.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

Great post!

Just wanted to add this 538 page which tracks and charts the approval/disapproval rating of a president over his/her entire tenure. As such, rather than just have some specific points in time, there's a graph with all the ups and down - though truth been told, Biden's approval has been surprisingly stable so far and just the disapproval has risen out of the formerly undecided: 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

And just for comparison, here's Trump's old chart:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Thanks!

I wish RCP did that kind of tracking over time. It'd make things easier for me 'cause I've come to trust their averages slightly more than Nate Silver's. Compared to election results, it seems like 538 tends to overestimate Democratic support more by excluding Republican-leaning polls like the Rasmussen ones because he's a liberal and thus concludes that conservative pollsters are often incredulous and not worth including in his averaging. The final tabulations on 538 on election day predicted an 8-point Biden win, while RCP's suggested 7.2. Biden actually won by 4.5. Both (again) underestimated Trump support slightly was the main reason, but RCP's gauged Biden's support almost exactly, however. Their final average had Biden pegged at 51.2% support on election day and he wound up with 51.4%. Nate Silver's had Biden at 52.6% at the same point, resulting in a less accurate prediction overall. RCP doesn't try to be as "scientific" about which polls are credible or not, they just average and typically land on slightly more accurate predictions.

sundin13 said:

Polling really only works in aggregate (and even then it has issues), so it is hard for me to really accept the results of a single poll/pollster as proof of any big changes in preferences. Further, you can't really just put approval numbers over voting trends and expect a 1:1 trend. As voting is a comparison, you may disapprove of someone and still vote for them because the other candidate is worse.

*shrugs* Well nothing is perfect. I just go based on the best data I can find that's available. Dunno what else you want. Thought the snapshot was worthy of mention and note.



Jaicee said:
sundin13 said:

Polling really only works in aggregate (and even then it has issues), so it is hard for me to really accept the results of a single poll/pollster as proof of any big changes in preferences. Further, you can't really just put approval numbers over voting trends and expect a 1:1 trend. As voting is a comparison, you may disapprove of someone and still vote for them because the other candidate is worse.

*shrugs* Well nothing is perfect. I just go based on the best data I can find that's available. Dunno what else you want. Thought the snapshot was worthy of mention and note.

Worth mention, sure, but I'm not sure if there is much beyond that. I would hypothesize that on a scale of a few months, we shouldn't expect significant partisan shifts. Partisanship tends to be a pretty strong force so I'd presume that these shifts you are seeing since election day are largely polling variation and enthusiasm shifts and not partisan shifts.