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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Republican Party Discussion

While most eyes are on the Democratic caucus, the Republicans also held a caucus in Iowa tonight.

Due to the incumbent nature of this race and the limited impact of his challengers, the results are already in.

2020 Iowa Republican caucuses
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Donald Trump (incumbent) 18,945 97.0
Republican Bill Weld 256 1.3
Republican Joe Walsh 231 1.2
Republican Other 92 0.5
Total votes 19,524 100%


Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

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What I'm really curious about is 2024 (assuming Trump wins 2020 and can't run in 2024. If he loses 2024 he may just pull a Grover Cleveland and go for a non-consecutive second term).

Current frontrunners Prediction in no particular order:
Nikki Haley
Donald Trump Jr.
Ivanka Trump (could you imagine?)

Guys who think they will have a shot but really don't:
Mike Pence (too serious, he needs to lighten up a little)
Mitt Romney (too Mormon)
Mike Huckabee (too Baptist, for the record I mostly identify as a Southern Baptist and supported this guy in 2008 primaries)

Hilarious troll candidacy that will either be a laugh or somehow win the whole thing:
Kanye West

Any others I'm missing in these categories?



Serious candidates with the most potential at the moment are definitely Nikki Hailey and Ron DeSantis. I think Mitt Romney burned his bridge with the impeachment trial vote. While it definitely gave the centrists something to consider, it might be too much for mainstream Republicans to accept.

Pence...I just don't know. For some reason I can't see him following Trump. There just doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for him.

I could see Matt Gaetz eventually going for it. Perhaps not 2024 but maybe 2028 running against....AOC (that would certainly make for one wild election cycle).

Mark Cuban maybe.

I'd like to see Jon Huntsman Jr or John Kasich run again. I think they had a lot of potential.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

NightlyPoe said:
SpokenTruth said:
I'd like to see Jon Huntsman Jr or John Kasich run again. I think they had a lot of potential.

I never like hearing people say stuff like this.  It's like a Republican saying that the Democrats should nominate Tulsi Gabbard.  It only makes sense if you're standing in the opposite camp.

It might surprise you but I have been known to change my party registration.  And yes, I liked both of those candidates.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

NightlyPoe said:
SpokenTruth said:

It might surprise you but I have been known to change my party registration.  And yes, I liked both of those candidates.

Either way.  Neither would stand a chance.  Personally, I can't stand Kasich.  Dude refused to drop out until the day after Ted Cruz conceded the nomination to Trump.  He literally stayed in the race just to play spoiler and split the anti-Trump vote.  And, yes, it could have made a difference.  Not with certainty, but there was still a chance until Trump swept the 2nd Super Tuesday.  Cruz* would have won at least 2 of the 4 states up for grabs, and possibly 3 of the 4 if Kasich had only stepped aside.

Then he turns into a Never Trumper after his ego personally ensures Trump's nomination.  Guy's just ridiculous.

*Say what you will about Cruz, but his personal character is nowhere near as morally objectionable as Trump's.

Cruz is definitely a better option than Trump.  Same with Rubio.  I can understand Trump supporters not liking Kasich given all that but for those on the right that really didn't want Trump he was their guy.

What are you thoughts on Huntsman?  Imagine his take on Chinese trade right now.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

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NightlyPoe said:
SpokenTruth said:

Cruz is definitely a better option than Trump.  Same with Rubio.  I can understand Trump supporters not liking Kasich given all that but for those on the right that really didn't want Trump he was their guy.

It's more the sense I got from Kasich that if he couldn't be the nominee, then he'd ensure Trump would win so that the whole party would burn to the ground out of spite.

I don't know.  Even if I were a moderate independent, I don't imagine that's the attitude I'd be looking for.

What are you thoughts on Huntsman?  Imagine his take on Chinese trade right now.

Huntsman, I really haven't though much of lately.  As a public servant, he's fine.  If he wins governor of Utah again, I don't think anyone would complain.  But, let's be honest, the guy doesn't have it in him to be in the brawl that's a modern presidential primary.

I mean, he couldn't even break out in 2012.  Literally, everyone on the debate stage led the race at one point or another except Huntsman and Bachmann.  And even Bachmann had a few weeks where she was a solid #2.  Huntsman never got above 5% in any poll.  Granted the relatively weak frontrunner also just so happened to be a nice Mormon guy from Utah, so he had some trouble finding a contrast.  But still, if there was ever a primary where voters didn't like their options and were shopping around giving everyone a look it was 2012.  And still, the voters pretended he was invisible.

Putting it that way, I wonder if that is one of the reasons I liked him.  He was calm, wasn't boisterous and was never the flavor of the week media darling like Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Santorum or Perry.  It was quite ridiculous how every week was a different "front runner" in 2011.   Overall, Paul was my guy the whole way though.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

NightlyPoe said:
Dulfite said:
What I'm really curious about is 2024 (assuming Trump wins 2020 and can't run in 2024. If he loses 2024 he may just pull a Grover Cleveland and go for a non-consecutive second term).

Current frontrunners Prediction in no particular order:
Nikki Haley
Donald Trump Jr.
Ivanka Trump (could you imagine?)

Guys who think they will have a shot but really don't:
Mike Pence (too serious, he needs to lighten up a little)
Mitt Romney (too Mormon)
Mike Huckabee (too Baptist, for the record I mostly identify as a Southern Baptist and supported this guy in 2008 primaries)

Hilarious troll candidacy that will either be a laugh or somehow win the whole thing:
Kanye West

Any others I'm missing in these categories?

The big ones in my view are:

  • Nikki Haley
  • Ron DeSantis
  • Ted Cruz
  • Tom Cotton
  • Greg Abbott
  • Mike Pence
  • Ben Sasse
  • Dan Crenshaw

Nikki Haley's the early frontrunner I think though.  She's literally the only politician I know of that's managed to stay on good terms with the Trump crowd while also being able to publicly criticize him from time to time.  That alone should tell you she's a formidable politician.

Ben Sasse is a personal favorite of mine, but I'll admit he doesn't have much of a chance.

Ron DeSantis has been making some waves down in Florida.  Surprising since the state has been dominated by Republicans since the 90s (Charlie Crist notwithstanding), but he hasn't been afraid to step on some toes in order to get stuff done.  Wouldn't surprise me if he nudges Rubio out of the way.

Darkhorse would be Dan Crenshaw.  Young, quick witted, and that eyepatch just gives him a unique look.

I likedRubio a bit until he started giving the same speech wherever he went. That just makes someone seem fake.

I think Nikki could be really good, plus electable. If it was a younger woman vs. an old white guy (Sanders, Bloomberg, Biden) she'd get a lot more of the women vote. And if it's her vs. Warren it takes away Warren's women advantage.

The other guys would probably lose simply because we don't usually have three terms of the same party.

(Unless the competition picks an extremist. No way they will win, in my mind, blue collar workers in industry jobs with a socialist candidate. I assume by 2024 the socialist experiment will have fizzled and they will have more realistic candidates by then. If not, no way a socialist will win against a normal candidate).



Dulfite said:
NightlyPoe said:

The big ones in my view are:

  • Nikki Haley
  • Ron DeSantis
  • Ted Cruz
  • Tom Cotton
  • Greg Abbott
  • Mike Pence
  • Ben Sasse
  • Dan Crenshaw

Nikki Haley's the early frontrunner I think though.  She's literally the only politician I know of that's managed to stay on good terms with the Trump crowd while also being able to publicly criticize him from time to time.  That alone should tell you she's a formidable politician.

Ben Sasse is a personal favorite of mine, but I'll admit he doesn't have much of a chance.

Ron DeSantis has been making some waves down in Florida.  Surprising since the state has been dominated by Republicans since the 90s (Charlie Crist notwithstanding), but he hasn't been afraid to step on some toes in order to get stuff done.  Wouldn't surprise me if he nudges Rubio out of the way.

Darkhorse would be Dan Crenshaw.  Young, quick witted, and that eyepatch just gives him a unique look.

I likedRubio a bit until he started giving the same speech wherever he went. That just makes someone seem fake.

I think Nikki could be really good, plus electable. If it was a younger woman vs. an old white guy (Sanders, Bloomberg, Biden) she'd get a lot more of the women vote. And if it's her vs. Warren it takes away Warren's women advantage.

The other guys would probably lose simply because we don't usually have three terms of the same party.

(Unless the competition picks an extremist. No way they will win, in my mind, blue collar workers in industry jobs with a socialist candidate. I assume by 2024 the socialist experiment will have fizzled and they will have more realistic candidates by then. If not, no way a socialist will win against a normal candidate).

It was almost sad the way Rubio kept repeating the same line over and over at the debates.  Even Chris Christie started pointing it out.  I'm not sure if he just got nervous or ran out of talking points but it basically ended his campaign.

Haley has been getting groomed for a candidacy.  And she has the ability to get nominated.  Sarah Palin she is not.  So glad she's no longer relevant.  She made me want to punch baby seals every time she talked. I don't know what McCain was thinking putting her on the VP pedestal like that.  Had he picked someone more competent, we might have had a very different turnout.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

NightlyPoe said:
SpokenTruth said:

It was almost sad the way Rubio kept repeating the same line over and over at the debates.  Even Chris Christie started pointing it out.  I'm not sure if he just got nervous or ran out of talking points but it basically ended his campaign.

That was never really fair to Rubio.  It's only remembered BECAUSE Chris Christie pointed it out.  It's hardly unusual for candidates to give the same speech over and over again.  There's an actual word for it, a stump speech.  You talk to any journalist that follows a candidate around and they'll tell you that they hear the same lines and corny jokes a hundred times.

For debates, Rubio was doing what most candidates do.  He was pivoting from the question to the message that he wanted to send.  Such message discipline is usually lauded.  Christie and Trump are a bit different.  Both of them are a lot less rehearsed and willing to wing it.  Christie, being faster on his feet and targeting Rubio, pointed out that he was doing what most of the candidates were doing in that debate.  But when Rubio made the mistake of going back to his main talking points again, he fell into a trap without realizing it and Christie jumped on him.

All that said, Rubio's never really impressed me.  He's always struck me as someone chasing after the next job instead of doing his current job correctly.  The whole immigration reform debacle is a prime example.  He let himself get roped into trying to sell a deal negotiated between McCain and Schumer (basically negotiating just how open the borders would be between those two) because he wanted to have a big accomplishment on his resume.  He's actually gotten a little better since his presidential aspirations have been punctured.

Haley has been getting groomed for a candidacy.  And she has the ability to get nominated.  Sarah Palin she is not.  So glad she's no longer relevant.  She made me want to punch baby seals every time she talked. I don't know what McCain was thinking putting her on the VP pedestal like that.  Had he picked someone more competent, we might have had a very different turnout.

Eh.  The only bit of juice and excitement that ever came to McCain's campaign was his selection of Palin.  I suspect he would have lost by even more if he'd pick Joe Lieberman like he'd wanted to.

Funny thing about Palin, she actually wasn't all that terrible a pick based on how she presented herself in Alaska.  She ran as an outside reformer trying to clean things up in the state.  That actually fits very well with McCain.  If she'd maintained that persona, she might well have been fine.  But the combination of the insta-vetting that was the most intense I have ever seen and Palin getting caught up in her own hype and stepping out of her reformer ways and just trying to be a political star were what really sunk her.  If she'd turned her folksy charm into admitting that she was playing catch-up on foreign policy and just supported McCain, she might well have still worked.

Again, though, it wouldn't have mattered.  McCain barely even tried to campaign after the primaries.  He let Obama off the hook from plenty of potential scandals and didn't even fight during the debates.  Considering 2008 was already a year of economic crisis and an unpopular Republican president, he might as well have just conceded in September.

Yes but you don't stump speech like that in a debate.  Save those for rallies, campaign speeches and such. Do that in a debate and you're going to look unprepared. And no, it's not remembered just because Christie pointed it out.  We all heard Rubio do it live...4 times. The fact Christie called him out on it only drove the point home.  Can you point out another candidate that has done that 4 times in 1 debate?  Even more specifically where at least 2 of those times it wasn't even relevant to the question he was being asked?

But you're on point about his intentions being higher and higher office and then getting humbled after the elections.  He definitely comes across as simply wanting the title at whatever costs.  The fact he won Puerto Rico is not surprising but winning DC definitely suggests he had long held talks with DC insiders before the election cycle. And he won Minnesota for some reason. I don't know if he is any better of a senator now than before the 2016 elections but his drive for office seems to have subsided.

Lieberman wouldn't have been much better in terms of helping McCain.  You're right.  But he wouldn't have hurt McCain like Palin did.  Lieberman has plenty of experience....in losing presidential elections. But then again we don't have much historical data to look at with cross-party tickets in the modern era.  Not sure if he would have alienated Republicans or gained Democrats for McCain.  I personally haven't liked Lieberman for a very long time given his ambition to get violent video games banned in the early 90s.

As for Palin, I never really knew anything about her until after her VP selection. I just think she was a mix of not being ready for that kind of spot light, not being experienced enough in federal level politics and going full bore with the folksy persona just devastated McCain's campaign.  She was the reality TV politico of the era. I think McCain kind of gave up.  He knew he blew it on the VP choice too much to expect a realistic chance.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

NightlyPoe said:

Eh, I'd have to actually rewatch a debate to give an example, but the "Answer the question, pivot to tonight's message" two-step is a very common debate strategy.  Maybe it's not the most genuine debate tactic, but Rubio is far from alone in using it.

And it's not like Rubio was pulling a Bloomberg and just sitting there lost and unprepared as people used him as a punching bag.  He was taking fairly strong swipes back at Christie, accusing him of abandoning his state and being shamed into returning after a snowstorm.  Christie just scored a knock-out blow in by pointing out the talking point.

Regardless, there is no way we would still be talking about a repeated talking point four years later and treating it as a defining moment of Rubio's career if Christie hadn't pointed it out.

That's what I mean.  This wasn't just reusing a talking point a few times but a rehearsed damn near word for word statement.  And it wasn't just Christie that pointed it out and made fun it, everybody that watched that debate did.

8:30 pm: "And let's dispel once and for all with this fiction that Barack Obama doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what he's doing."
8:32 pm: "Let's dispel with this fiction that Barack Obama doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what he's doing."
8:34 pm: "This notion that Barack Obama doesn't know what he's doing is just not true. He knows exactly what he's doing."
9:21 pm: "I think anyone who believes that Barack Obama isn't doing what he's doing on purpose doesn't understand what we're dealing with here. Okay?"

Notice the first 3 times come within just 4 minutes overall? It was nuts.

Bloomberg was on a completely different level of failure last week. That one will go down in history as a prime example of both how to get your ass handed to you and how to not do a damn thing about it. But Rubio was his own problem back in Feb 2016. Yes, Christie took the golden opportunity (as they all should have) to lay into him for it but we were all in over our heads in laughter when we heard him say the canned line the 4th time.   I did laugh harder at Bloomberg being repeatedly eviscerated though.  I don't know if you watched that in real time or not but my gosh it was brutally beautiful.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."