By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 24 November 2018

Nate4Drake said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Great boost WoW and YoY for NS, both in USA and WW. XBOne has a decent YoY boost and obviously an excellent WoW one, and it's second again in USA, but it's not enough to keep the second place WW it had last year, this year NS is too strong. PS4 has a small drop YoY WW, but a small boost YoY in USA and it's still first WW by a large margin, but much smaller than the previous BF. Anyway, things go very well for Sony and Ninty and more than decently for MS, no need at all for Sony to rush PS5 launch, the only thing PS4 really needs is better sales in Japan (although its current Japan sales aren't even vaguely as bad as XBOne ones).

Yep.

 Japan is a "special market", not easy to capture the attention of Japanese.   They don't care about 4K, or massive power and teraflops, or spectacular graphics like God of War, Forza Horizon4, etc.  They prefer to play their puzzle-games, sexy games, their j-rpg, and sure they prefer cool little lovely hardware like Switch, which is also portable. How to blame them ?

 On the other hand, it appears that both Sony and MS don't care that much, focusing 95% on the West, and this is the result.

Japanese are as old fashioned as their old fashioned Japanese websites.



God bless You.

My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?


Around the Network
Amnesia said:

I have added the 2017 Q4 to see the whole curve : it needs to be ~33% higher than the final spot of the blue curve (15,06M --> 20M) by March 30th 2019.

It is already 26% higher by today (8,12M from 6,42M). It is done. I will put half of my money on Nintendo Share, if they confirm 20M the share will explode.

Hi, can I ask you to update this graph with week 48 and 49? maybe even make a thread out of it?

I think it's very interesting to see the gap with last year and the growth in percentage. It's a good way to see if the 20mil are possible for FY 2018 IMO

As of december 8th the growth is ~+27.5%. With NSMBUDX releasing later this week it's going to be very interesting to see what numbers january will bring.



Supermario28 said:
Amnesia said:

I have added the 2017 Q4 to see the whole curve : it needs to be ~33% higher than the final spot of the blue curve (15,06M --> 20M) by March 30th 2019.

It is already 26% higher by today (8,12M from 6,42M). It is done. I will put half of my money on Nintendo Share, if they confirm 20M the share will explode.

Hi, can I ask you to update this graph with week 48 and 49? maybe even make a thread out of it?

I think it's very interesting to see the gap with last year and the growth in percentage. It's a good way to see if the 20mil are possible for FY 2018 IMO

As of december 8th the growth is ~+27.5%. With NSMBUDX releasing later this week it's going to be very interesting to see what numbers january will bring.

Hi ! I have not really updated it more because I don't trust the last Hardware result here with the Smash week. I think it is pretty difficult to estimate this intensive period but as you wish. If we keep this 1.2M for the switch, sure the 20M are doomed. I would really bet a lot that Switch was much higher than the PS4 for this week even in Europe.
There is a mistake in my prediction that I should stop to do : I consider a constant ratio of 1.10 between the FY2017 and the tracked total sales of VGChartz (15,06/13,68), but this is not a ratio, it is rather a constant gap of ~1,5M, the size of the stores, retailers and warehouse is not growing as the Switch is increasing its sales.

Last edited by Amnesia - on 07 January 2019

Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TGM3 MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Western record on TGM3 EASY : 1484
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Amnesia said:
Supermario28 said:

Hi, can I ask you to update this graph with week 48 and 49? maybe even make a thread out of it?

I think it's very interesting to see the gap with last year and the growth in percentage. It's a good way to see if the 20mil are possible for FY 2018 IMO

As of december 8th the growth is ~+27.5%. With NSMBUDX releasing later this week it's going to be very interesting to see what numbers january will bring.

Hi ! I have not really updated it more because I don't trust the last Hardware result here with the Smash week. I think it is pretty difficult to estimate this intensive period but as you wish. If we keep this 1.2M for the switch, sure the 20M are doomed. I would really bet a lot that Switch was much higher than the PS4 for this week even in Europe.
There is a mistake in my prediction that I should stop to do : I consider a constant ratio of 1.10 between the FY2017 and the tracked total sales of VGChartz (15,06/13,68), but this is not a ratio, it is rather a constant gap of ~1,5M, the size of the stores, retailers and warehouse is not growing as the Switch is increasing its sales.

Thanks a lot!

I think it's still interesting, even if the estimates for smash week are way off. I mean, as it stands with 1.2M in week 49, switch will ship 19.17M. 

A little hyped Nintendo Direct and Yoshi release in march to close this gap maybe?

EDIT: week 50 is in. 1'323'000. it brings the growrh YOY to 28.5% so an estimate of 19.34M shipped FY2018

Last edited by Supermario28 - on 08 January 2019

Supermario28 said:
Amnesia said:

Hi ! I have not really updated it more because I don't trust the last Hardware result here with the Smash week. I think it is pretty difficult to estimate this intensive period but as you wish. If we keep this 1.2M for the switch, sure the 20M are doomed. I would really bet a lot that Switch was much higher than the PS4 for this week even in Europe.
There is a mistake in my prediction that I should stop to do : I consider a constant ratio of 1.10 between the FY2017 and the tracked total sales of VGChartz (15,06/13,68), but this is not a ratio, it is rather a constant gap of ~1,5M, the size of the stores, retailers and warehouse is not growing as the Switch is increasing its sales.

Thanks a lot!

I think it's still interesting, even if the estimates for smash week are way off. I mean, as it stands with 1.2M in week 49, switch will ship 19.17M. 

A little hyped Nintendo Direct and Yoshi release in march to close this gap maybe?

EDIT: week 50 is in. 1'323'000. it brings the growrh YOY to 28.5% so an estimate of 19.34M shipped FY2018

I can send you my EXCEL if you want to play with :D



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TGM3 MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Western record on TGM3 EASY : 1484
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary