Forums - Gaming Discussion - Will the XBOX One outsell the SNES?

Will XBOX One outsell the SNES?

Yes 55 51.89%
 
No 51 48.11%
 
Total:106
Bofferbrauer2 said:
CGI-Quality said:

But, that's like saying if the PS3 had performed similar to the PS2, the Xbox wouldn't have ever been in the discussion at all. Besides, the 360 did perform halfway decently (for an Xbox, anyway).

Really, the problem goes beyond one system for Microsoft. It's a brand issue.

And an IP issue on top of that in Japan. Xbox simply doesn't have many games that Japanese players want to play. Unless Microsoft wants to make Minecraft an Xbox exclusive, they'll need to get a lot of Japanese games onto their console, and many of them exclusive to their console.

That didn't work last time they tried it on the 360. Almost every Japanese developer that got in bed with Microsoft for exclusivity ended up regretting it badly. US sales didn't make up for lost Japanese sales. Namco used the money Microsoft paid them for 360 games like Eternal Sonata and Tales of Vesperia to make better versions for PS3 to try and make up what they lost in sales by being 360 exclusive.  Vesperia did so poorly on 360 that the Tales studio got shut down.

Microsoft honestly needs to face the facts about the Xbox in Japan. It's never going to happen. They need to content themselves with the handful of multinational-focused Japanese developers willing to port their popular-in-the-US games and focus on the Western market otherwise. Other than that, they need to leave Japanese games to Nintendo and Sony.



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SanAndreasX said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

And an IP issue on top of that in Japan. Xbox simply doesn't have many games that Japanese players want to play. Unless Microsoft wants to make Minecraft an Xbox exclusive, they'll need to get a lot of Japanese games onto their console, and many of them exclusive to their console.

That didn't work last time they tried it on the 360. Almost every Japanese developer that got in bed with Microsoft for exclusivity ended up regretting it badly. US sales didn't make up for lost Japanese sales. Namco used the money Microsoft paid them for 360 games like Eternal Sonata and Tales of Vesperia to make better versions for PS3 to try and make up what they lost in sales by being 360 exclusive.  Vesperia did so poorly on 360 that the Tales studio got shut down.

Microsoft honestly needs to face the facts about the Xbox in Japan. It's never going to happen. They need to content themselves with the handful of multinational-focused Japanese developers willing to port their popular-in-the-US games and focus on the Western market otherwise. Other than that, they need to leave Japanese games to Nintendo and Sony.

I see your point, but I actually meant games they develop themselves for the Japanese market, new IPs, not games where they just bought the exclusivity for from another publisher.

And I agree that it will be very hard for Xbox, but it could at least reach 360 levels again next gen that way. Not great or even good, but at least not as abysmal as the XBO is doing.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
SanAndreasX said:

That didn't work last time they tried it on the 360. Almost every Japanese developer that got in bed with Microsoft for exclusivity ended up regretting it badly. US sales didn't make up for lost Japanese sales. Namco used the money Microsoft paid them for 360 games like Eternal Sonata and Tales of Vesperia to make better versions for PS3 to try and make up what they lost in sales by being 360 exclusive.  Vesperia did so poorly on 360 that the Tales studio got shut down.

Microsoft honestly needs to face the facts about the Xbox in Japan. It's never going to happen. They need to content themselves with the handful of multinational-focused Japanese developers willing to port their popular-in-the-US games and focus on the Western market otherwise. Other than that, they need to leave Japanese games to Nintendo and Sony.

I see your point, but I actually meant games they develop themselves for the Japanese market, new IPs, not games where they just bought the exclusivity for from another publisher.

And I agree that it will be very hard for Xbox, but it could at least reach 360 levels again next gen that way. Not great or even good, but at least not as abysmal as the XBO is doing.

They've tried that too. Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey didn't help much, and Blue Dragon had Sakaguchi, Uematsu, and Akira Toriyama. I don't think either Microsoft or Mistwalker liked how that partnership went. Those were original IPs for the 360. There was supposed to be a third game, Cry On, that ended up never going anywhere. A generation earlier, they tried to make a MMO for the original Xbox with Level-5, and that relationship ended with Akihiro Hino vowing that he would never work with Microsoft again.  They simply don't have a clue when it comes to Japan, and there's more to MS's failures there than can be dismissed by writing it off as Japanese nationalism.



SanAndreasX said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I see your point, but I actually meant games they develop themselves for the Japanese market, new IPs, not games where they just bought the exclusivity for from another publisher.

And I agree that it will be very hard for Xbox, but it could at least reach 360 levels again next gen that way. Not great or even good, but at least not as abysmal as the XBO is doing.

They've tried that too. Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey didn't help much, and Blue Dragon had Sakaguchi, Uematsu, and Akira Toriyama. I don't think either Microsoft or Mistwalker liked how that partnership went. Those were original IPs for the 360. There was supposed to be a third game, Cry On, that ended up never going anywhere. A generation earlier, they tried to make a MMO for the original Xbox with Level-5, and that relationship ended with Akihiro Hino vowing that he would never work with Microsoft again.  They simply don't have a clue when it comes to Japan, and there's more to MS's failures there than can be dismissed by writing it off as Japanese nationalism.

Those are just 2 IP, and just one game for each IP. I would consider that a start, but certainly not nearly enough for an entire console generation. For an entire console generation, I would consider at least half a dozen IPs and about a dozen games for each and any of the 3 main markets (North America, Europe and Japan) the bare minimum a console should push to have success in all regions.

But without a serious improvement of their image in Japan, even that won't be able to do much. Which brings us back to their brand issue...



Microsoft is in the market primarily to bar control of Sony's living room as an entertainment center. Microsoft's games division has long been in deficit, just look at the numbers or financial juggling he did in the games division. Despite the big company it is outside of the gaming market, inside  is just a rich man with an almost infinite pile of money.

I believe that in the next console Microsoft will perform much better than this Generation.



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Sales on it are slowing down, and I don't imagine there's a whole lot of people out there who do not yet have the system who still intend to purchase one... especially with the successor on the horizon.



*My signature from 2011 which I'm too lazy to change*

Currently awaiting the arrivals of:
Kid Icarus Uprising
Resident Evil: Revelations
Tekken 3D: Prime Edition
Metal Gear Solid: Snake Eater 3D
Beyond the Labyrinth
Heroes of Ruin
Luigi's Mansion 2

It's looking very likely. Less than 5m to go now. Should sell 1.5-2m between Black Friday and December this year. Then it has next year, which will likely have permanent price drops for both S and X early in the year, and maybe a further temporary price drop for Holiday 2020. Then it has post-successor sales in 2021, which will be small, but still decent. Should be discontinued in early 2022. 

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 27 November 2019

shikamaru317 said:

It's looking very likely. Less than 5m to go now. Should sell 1.5-2m between Black Friday and December this year. Then it has next year, which will likely have permanent price drops for both S and X early in the year, and maybe a further temporary price drop for Holiday 2020. Then it has post-successor sales in 2021, which will be small, but still decent. Should be discontinued in early 2022. 

I don't see the XBO getting anywhere near close to 2M this BF through holiday season. XBO is about 40-50% in the latest weeks YoY and last year the console one sold 1.8M during that period. It will probably be more like 1.1-1.4M during that time frame.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
shikamaru317 said:

It's looking very likely. Less than 5m to go now. Should sell 1.5-2m between Black Friday and December this year. Then it has next year, which will likely have permanent price drops for both S and X early in the year, and maybe a further temporary price drop for Holiday 2020. Then it has post-successor sales in 2021, which will be small, but still decent. Should be discontinued in early 2022. 

I don't see the XBO getting anywhere near close to 2M this BF through holiday season. XBO is about 40-50% in the latest weeks YoY and last year the console one sold 1.8M during that period. It will probably be more like 1.1-1.4M during that time frame.

I do think will be be down some from last year, but we’ll have to wait and see by how much. I know that Benji said that the Xbox S All Digital edition for $150 is selling very well this week.

Also, VGC has XB1 from Black Friday week to end of December last year at 2.82m. Black Friday was a week earlier last year because Thanksgiving moves around, it doesn’t have a set numbered date. XB1 sold 1.03m last year on Black Friday week.