Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 46 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - November 12-18, 2018

Megiddo said:
nero said:
W47: 190k

Expecting basically no drop in this week's MC numbers? Wow, that is quite bold.

The momentum is there, Smash is around the corner. If it keeps the stock going I think they will mantain it. If not, as rumour has it that it's having shortages ala 2017, it might drop 



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From what I've read on Era, only the Pokemon bundles are having shortages. The main Grey/Neon SKUs and Smash bundle has plenty of stock.



OTBWY said:

I mean, you can stop pretending that I said that all support would stop. Like I explained before, the amount of games (triple A) that will trickle onto the system will become less as a "gen" goes on. Why? Because as hardware progresses and games become bigger, more complex and ultimately more complex, more time and money will have to be put into it. As I said before too, Japan primarily develops games for the Japanese audience first, then ports it over. When the audience becomes less, what do you think they will invest in? A cheaper and less costly device? Or a expensive device that requires more work and time and might not have the Japanese audience? The truth is, Nintendo is going to be more and more dominant in Japan. And as time goes on, this upset will generate more exclusives that might not come to other platforms as fast. Because 1: the audiences interest and 2: the appeal and association of these platforms. And it doesn't really mean big games perse, maybe a very very early example of such game is Octopath Traveler. And let me remind you, I am talking about Japan and the Japanese oriented market only. What goes on outside of that market is completely different.

TBH you are making a lot of assumptions. Just being a weaker system doesn’t translate to ease of developments right away.

Just being a powerful machine doesn’t translate costly for them by default.

 

Why would we limit our discussion in Japan sales only? 

I can name you games that are doing great outside Japan. 

Cold Steel in Asia (China), Super Robot Wars in asia, Persona, Yakuza, Nier, Naruto, DragonBall, Final Fantasy, Monster Hunter World, Tekken, Resident evil, Nioh 

outside Japan. 

Multi-plat is the most viable option.

Why limit your sales on one System if you can sell more with PS-Ninty combo. 

 

You cited octopath but that is just one example of the few. 

 

I will asked you again, what games  are we talking about? Publishers?

Mnementh said:
NoCtiS_NoX said:

What's not traditional about MHW?

It's simplified and streamlined. I don't say that is bad, for more casual players it is actually a good thing. But there is also the more traditional core group of players like me, who wants to take more care, learn more about the monsters behaviour (for instance where it does flee to instead of using an instacheat showing you the direction), preparing for a hunt with careful consideration and so on. Actually - funny enough - the situation is comparable with Pokemon core and Pokemon Let's Go. Let's Go is great as a spinoff for more casual players and new players to the franchise. Still the core group of players remains and what's why it is great next year the core Pokemon drops. If Capcom does similar things - releasing MonHun World and classic MonHun in parallel, then this is great. If they drop one group of players like hot potatoes, then it is stupid. But well, Capcom does stupid regularly, so it is possible.

I see it as Traditional with improve mechanics. I don’t see it as casualized because I don’t consider it as a casual game. It’s still a hard game.

Just because it’s easier doesn’t mean it easy for the casual crowd to play. I think we just to agree to disagree then. 

 

And I see why they did it because it’s really easy to get lost on the areas especially with Coral Highlands



Miyamotoo said:

But that doesnt go against what I said, if Switch install base for Splatoon2 launch was higher, Splatoon2 would also had even higher sales than it did, same like Pokemon. There is no need for explanation, we talking about very clear logic, higher install base means higher number of potential buyers for any game, that means higher sales in any case if we talk about same game and same platform, if Switch had lower install base than it did, lower sales would be for Pokemon, if it did had higher install base, higher sales would be for Pokemon, its simply as that.

I dont see how I prove your point, that list just shows that Pokemon Lets Go had good launch compared to its install base and very similar compared to other Pokemon games.

It seems , I failed to explain it better.

What you fail to realize with comparison with Splatoon 2. It manage to sell 600k with 1m installbase. Yes you are correct that if the installbase is higher Splatoon 2 could have sold more than 600k so if we compare it directly with pokemon with 600k with 5m install base then Let’s go sales is not really that great because using your arguments Let’s go should have sold more. It’s on a higher installbase right? 

As for your examples yes, you didn’t notice you prove my point with it. Take a 2nd look with your examples. X&Y outsold S&M with less install base so using your logic. A higher installbase means higher sales but it didn’t happen with sun and moon.

 

hence proving my point that install base doesn’t really matter with Pokemon. 

 

 

This sucks. Posting in mobile is really a mess. :(



nero said:
Megiddo said:

Expecting basically no drop in this week's MC numbers? Wow, that is quite bold.

The momentum is there, Smash is around the corner. If it keeps the stock going I think they will mantain it. If not, as rumour has it that it's having shortages ala 2017, it might drop 

7 SKUs consistently above any other console and all in the top 50 on Amazon Japan basically all through out the past  weeks as well. I second you in expecting another Switch landslide this week.



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NoCtiS_NoX said:
Miyamotoo said:

But that doesnt go against what I said, if Switch install base for Splatoon2 launch was higher, Splatoon2 would also had even higher sales than it did, same like Pokemon. There is no need for explanation, we talking about very clear logic, higher install base means higher number of potential buyers for any game, that means higher sales in any case if we talk about same game and same platform, if Switch had lower install base than it did, lower sales would be for Pokemon, if it did had higher install base, higher sales would be for Pokemon, its simply as that.

I dont see how I prove your point, that list just shows that Pokemon Lets Go had good launch compared to its install base and very similar compared to other Pokemon games.

It seems , I failed to explain it better.

What you fail to realize with comparison with Splatoon 2. It manage to sell 600k with 1m installbase. Yes you are correct that if the installbase is higher Splatoon 2 could have sold more than 600k so if we compare it directly with pokemon with 600k with 5m install base then Let’s go sales is not really that great because using your arguments Let’s go should have sold more. It’s on a higher installbase right? 

As for your examples yes, you didn’t notice you prove my point with it. Take a 2nd look with your examples. X&Y outsold S&M with less install base so using your logic. A higher installbase means higher sales but it didn’t happen with sun and moon.

hence proving my point that install base doesn’t really matter with Pokemon. 

 

This sucks. Posting in mobile is really a mess. :(

Well its obvious Splatoon2 that had much better debut than PLG, but that isnt point, point is that PLG would be sell better if Switch had higher install base (same goes for Splatoon2 or any other game really), and that's definitely point should be taken in consideration when we comparing it to sales of other Pokemon games, because this Pokemon game was launched on lowest install base, if Switch had install base few millions more than it did, PLG would definitely sell more in any case than it did.

No, thats not my logic, Its not same thing, I was talking about same game and same platform, both X&Y and S&M would again sell more than than they did if 3DS install base in that period was higher when those games were launched, and they would sell less if install base of 3DS was smaller.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 26 November 2018

Miyamotoo said:

Well its obvious Splatoon2 that had much better debut than PLG, but that isnt point, point is that PLG would be sell better if Switch had higher install base (same goes for Splatoon2 or any other game really), and that's definitely point should be taken in consideration when we comparing it to sales of other Pokemon games, because this Pokemon game was launched on lowest install base, if Switch had install base few millions more than it did, PLG would definitely sell more in any case than it did.

No, thats not my logic, Its not same thing, I was talking about same game and same platform, both X&Y and S&M would again sell more than than they did if 3DS install base in that period was higher when those games were launched, and they would sell less if install base of 3DS was smaller.

How is it obvious? Using your arguments. Higher install base equals higher sales so if we use Splatoon as an example then Let’s go sales should be higher correct? then why it didn’t sold more than Splatoon FW? 

and as for you examples  why didn’t sun and moon out sold X and Y with higher install base then can you please explain that to me?

why a 5 million install base limit a fw sales  of Pokemon when it didn’t limit Splatoon 2  in selling 600k with 1M install base?



NoCtiS_NoX said:
Miyamotoo said:

Well its obvious Splatoon2 that had much better debut than PLG, but that isnt point, point is that PLG would be sell better if Switch had higher install base (same goes for Splatoon2 or any other game really), and that's definitely point should be taken in consideration when we comparing it to sales of other Pokemon games, because this Pokemon game was launched on lowest install base, if Switch had install base few millions more than it did, PLG would definitely sell more in any case than it did.

No, thats not my logic, Its not same thing, I was talking about same game and same platform, both X&Y and S&M would again sell more than than they did if 3DS install base in that period was higher when those games were launched, and they would sell less if install base of 3DS was smaller.

How is it obvious? Using your arguments. Higher install base equals higher sales so if we use Splatoon as an example then Let’s go sales should be higher correct? then why it didn’t sold more than Splatoon FW? 

and as for you examples  why didn’t sun and moon out sold X and Y with higher install base then can you please explain that to me?

why a 5 million install base limit a fw sales  of Pokemon when it didn’t limit Splatoon 2  in selling 600k with 1M install base?

Great assessment. You really debunked his post with solid facts. 



NoCtiS_NoX said:
Miyamotoo said:

Well its obvious Splatoon2 that had much better debut than PLG, but that isnt point, point is that PLG would be sell better if Switch had higher install base (same goes for Splatoon2 or any other game really), and that's definitely point should be taken in consideration when we comparing it to sales of other Pokemon games, because this Pokemon game was launched on lowest install base, if Switch had install base few millions more than it did, PLG would definitely sell more in any case than it did.

No, thats not my logic, Its not same thing, I was talking about same game and same platform, both X&Y and S&M would again sell more than than they did if 3DS install base in that period was higher when those games were launched, and they would sell less if install base of 3DS was smaller.

How is it obvious? Using your arguments. Higher install base equals higher sales so if we use Splatoon as an example then Let’s go sales should be higher correct? then why it didn’t sold more than Splatoon FW? 

and as for you examples  why didn’t sun and moon out sold X and Y with higher install base then can you please explain that to me?

why a 5 million install base limit a fw sales  of Pokemon when it didn’t limit Splatoon 2  in selling 600k with 1M install base?

Simple, if we talk about same platform and same game, higher base means higher potential number of buyers for that game, and offcourse that with higher install base for same game on same platform higher sales would be for that game, its opposite with lower install base. Its not how that works, every game has different apealing and sales, point that Splatoon 2 had similar sales like PLG with much lower install base that doesnt go against my point, like I wrote, with higher install base both games would have higher launch numbers. I gave you simple question, PLG was launched on install base of around 5.5m, do you think that sales numbers for PLG would be same if install base was 10m or maybe 2m? Lets said that install base was just 1m higher than it was, do you think that not one single owner from that extra 1m wouldn't buy PIG game at launch? 

Because they didnt have same appealing, they are not same games, they were launched in different point of console life, different order...but again, that doesnt go against my point, that both those games would sell more if they install base was higher and less if install base is lower. Fact that Splatoon 2 was more popular than PLG on launch doesnt go against my point.

Thats a point and I already said several times to you, install base was limit for Splatoon 2 also, install base affecting on every game release not just on PLG or Splatoon2, and when you comparing PLG sales with other Pokemon games, and fact is that Switch has lowest install base on which some Pokemon game was launched and that should be one of points when we comparing sales with other Pokemon games. Also, PLG had attach rate of 12% (whithout digital sales) on install base of around 5.5m, and thats around 660k, same attach rate with install base of around 10m maybe could be around 1.2m.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 28 November 2018

Miyamotoo said:

Simple, if we talk about same platform and same game, higher base means higher potential number of buyers for that game, and offcourse that with higher install base for same game on same platform higher sales would be for that game, its opposite with lower install base. Its not how that works, every game has different apealing and sales, point that Splatoon 2 had similar sales like PLG with much lower install base that doesnt go against my point, like I wrote, with higher install base both games would have higher launch numbers. I gave you simple question, PLG was launched on install base of around 5.5m, do you think that sales numbers for PLG would be same if install base was 10m or maybe 2m? Lets said that install base was just 1m higher than it was, do you think that not one single owner from that extra 1m wouldn't buy PIG game at launch? 

Because they didnt have same appealing, they are not same games, they were launched in different point of console life, different order...but again, that doesnt go against my point, that both those games would sell more if they install base was higher and less if install base is lower. Fact that Splatoon 2 was more popular than PLG on launch doesnt go against my point.

Thats a point and I already said several times to you, install base was limit for Splatoon 2 also, install base affecting on every game release not just on PLG or Splatoon2, and when you comparing PLG sales with other Pokemon games, and fact is that Switch has lowest install base on which some Pokemon game was launched and that should be one of points when we comparing sales with other Pokemon games. Also, PLG had attach rate of 12% (whithout digital sales) on install base of around 5.5m, and thats around 660k, same attach rate with install base of around 10m maybe could be around 1.2m.

It's simple as this. It's a pokemon game. Pokemon is popular with Kids and core fans a like. If this is gen 8. Even if the install base is 5.6 M it will  sell like X and Y and Sun and moon or even more because NSW is doing great.

Let's use FFXIII as an example it sold 1.5M on an install base of 4.7M.  Then FFXV sold 690K on an install base of 3.7M.  What's the difference of the 2?  Do you think another 1M will help FFXV's sales  to match FFXIII's sale? The simple answer is no. I will not explain it, I think you are old enough to understand.  

Now let's use your example. Sun and moon sold 1.9 on an install base of 20M compare it to X and Y that sold 2.1 on an install base of 13M.  Can you tell me straight on my face install base matters on a game like Pokemon? You are already ignoring this because it debunks  all of your arguments against me.  

As for Splatoon. Don't put words in my mouth. I already said with higher install base it will sell more, The key difference is when Splatoon was release it was limited by shortages of NSW but it manage to sell 600K so again with an install base of 5.6M Let's go sales is somewhat disappointing when install base is higher and not plagued with shortages. 

Anyway, we will see the charts soon. Hopefully it will have great legs not just in Japan but worldwide because the more I saw game play vids the more I am getting excited to play it. 

Last edited by NoCtiS_NoX - on 28 November 2018