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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Panic Button about Switch’s future, next PlayStation/Xbox effect

Ljink96 on 08 July 2018
zorg1000 said:
Ljink96 said:
If Nintendo's successful devices relied on heavy western 3rd party support, I'd be concerned for the Switch's future. But since the best selling titles on Nintendo platforms are historically:

A.) Nintendo 1st Party Games

B.) Japanese 3rd Party Games

and

C.) Indie Games

I feel Nintendo will have it's own little niche area to itself. I don't need my Switch to be a PS5. I'm excited to see what developers get out of it as the console is very young. Square Enix has created a specific division just for Switch titles, Level 5 said all their upcoming games will be made with Switch in mind, Sega, Capcom, etc. have to support it in Japan by default. It'll be fine.

Now, would it be nice to have day and date AAA western 3rd party games on Switch? Hell yeah, but it's not part of Nintendo's successful DNA, for the most part. I see the Switch performing like the SNES, DS, Gameboy and 3DS. It'll continue to get great 1st party support from their rich library of IP, Japanese 3rd parties will make software to appeal to the Switch as it is dominating in Japan, and indie titles continue to sell the best on the Switch, even more than others combined. And that's fine because those platforms seem to favor more western styled, AAA games. I feel Nintendo just needs to focus on pleasing their largest demographic.

A lot of people may not see it now, but I think Switch, even in the midst of PS5 and Xbox 2 will have a bright future. It probably wont' get many next gen games at all, but it will get enough support because the device is selling well.

Basically any type of small-medium sized title (A-AA) is well suited for Switch, this includes

1. Indie games

2. Japanese games

3. Kid/family games

4. Last gen remasters

5. Retro compilations

6. Mobile conversions

7. Free to play games

8. Late PS4/XBO downports

These are currently the type of games Switch gets and for the most part they seem to be performing pretty decently and despite what some people are saying, the release of PS5/XB4 will have little affect on this type of support.

People need to realize that Switch is the successor to Wii U, 3DS and in a way Vita so we should be looking at it receiving the consolidated support of those devices.

I agree for the most part, but from time to time we do get and will get day and date PS4/Xbone ports that have parity with other versions. For example, Dragonball Fighter Z.  But I guess that falls under Japanese games, so yeah I agree.

But yeah, the Switch does not need to be a PS5 or Xbox 2 to be a success. The categories that you've named basically cover what I expect from the Switch along with Nintendo's own 1st party killer library. I mean, we might be looking at the most robust library on a Nintendo platform in history when its all said and done and coming off the Wii U, that's a huge win. 

With the projected support, I see Switch at least hitting 80 million units. Nintendo kind of created a market for themselves and I think it's going to go well for them. Like you said, with this support, Switch will exist and thrive just fine. 



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zorg1000 on 08 July 2018
Ljink96 said:
zorg1000 said:

Basically any type of small-medium sized title (A-AA) is well suited for Switch, this includes

1. Indie games

2. Japanese games

3. Kid/family games

4. Last gen remasters

5. Retro compilations

6. Mobile conversions

7. Free to play games

8. Late PS4/XBO downports

These are currently the type of games Switch gets and for the most part they seem to be performing pretty decently and despite what some people are saying, the release of PS5/XB4 will have little affect on this type of support.

People need to realize that Switch is the successor to Wii U, 3DS and in a way Vita so we should be looking at it receiving the consolidated support of those devices.

I agree for the most part, but from time to time we do get and will get day and date PS4/Xbone ports that have parity with other versions. For example, Dragonball Fighter Z.  But I guess that falls under Japanese games, so yeah I agree.

But yeah, the Switch does not need to be a PS5 or Xbox 2 to be a success. The categories that you've named basically cover what I expect from the Switch along with Nintendo's own 1st party killer library. I mean, we might be looking at the most robust library on a Nintendo platform in history when its all said and done and coming off the Wii U, that's a huge win. 

With the projected support, I see Switch at least hitting 80 million units. Nintendo kind of created a market for themselves and I think it's going to go well for them. Like you said, with this support, Switch will exist and thrive just fine. 

Well actually Fighter Z is releasing like 8 months later on Switch, it released in Jan for PS4/XBO and is coming in Sept for Switch.

And ya i agree, as long as Nintendo doesnt make any major fuckups than i see 80 million being the minimum for Switch.

If you look at the sales of 3DS, Wii U & Vita, they add up to over 100 million so if they can successfully consolidate the support and audience of those devices than i think 100 million is possible.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Ljink96 on 08 July 2018
zorg1000 said:
Ljink96 said:

I agree for the most part, but from time to time we do get and will get day and date PS4/Xbone ports that have parity with other versions. For example, Dragonball Fighter Z.  But I guess that falls under Japanese games, so yeah I agree.

But yeah, the Switch does not need to be a PS5 or Xbox 2 to be a success. The categories that you've named basically cover what I expect from the Switch along with Nintendo's own 1st party killer library. I mean, we might be looking at the most robust library on a Nintendo platform in history when its all said and done and coming off the Wii U, that's a huge win. 

With the projected support, I see Switch at least hitting 80 million units. Nintendo kind of created a market for themselves and I think it's going to go well for them. Like you said, with this support, Switch will exist and thrive just fine. 

Well actually Fighter Z is releasing like 8 months later on Switch, it released in Jan for PS4/XBO and is coming in Sept for Switch.

And ya i agree, as long as Nintendo doesnt make any major fuckups than i see 80 million being the minimum for Switch.

If you look at the sales of 3DS, Wii U & Vita, they add up to over 100 million so if they can successfully consolidate the support and audience of those devices than i think 100 million is possible.

Yeah, I was talking more about visual parity than day and date for DBFZ, I think we'll get more games around that threshold with parity and same day in the future however. The only thing about the Vita is, it's still getting decent support in Japan so I don't know when they cut that cord, if they do at all anytime soon. 



zorg1000 on 08 July 2018
Ljink96 said:
zorg1000 said:

Well actually Fighter Z is releasing like 8 months later on Switch, it released in Jan for PS4/XBO and is coming in Sept for Switch.

And ya i agree, as long as Nintendo doesnt make any major fuckups than i see 80 million being the minimum for Switch.

If you look at the sales of 3DS, Wii U & Vita, they add up to over 100 million so if they can successfully consolidate the support and audience of those devices than i think 100 million is possible.

Yeah, I was talking more about visual parity than day and date for DBFZ, I think we'll get more games around that threshold with parity and same day in the future however. The only thing about the Vita is, it's still getting decent support in Japan so I don't know when they cut that cord, if they do at all anytime soon. 

Ok i gotcha, but still i would consider Fighter Z to be a mid-teir release, not really a big AAA title so i think it still falls into the categories we are speaking of.

As for Vita, its support has really died down alot this year, its still getting new releases but its significantly lower than it was a year or two ago and will basically be gone by next year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Zach808 on 09 July 2018

I'm thinking that up until 2023 or so, support will either increase, or stay as is. However, I doubt it's gonna drop off before then. Since every AAA game released for the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X has to run on the base models, it won't depend on when the next gen consoles release, but when support ends for the current gen ones. Devs supported the PS3 and 360 for a couple years after the PS4 and Xbox One released due to the install base, so we're probably gonna be getting current gen games until around 2023, which will have to be cut down to Switch power as usual. After that is when things will get sketchy, unless the install base is crazy high.



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Shiken on 09 July 2018
curl-6 said:

Did the DS stop selling when PS3 and 360 came out?

Did the 3DS stop selling when PS4/Xbone came out?

The Switch does not depend on AAA third party games or being graphically competitive drive sales, so PS5/Nextbox won't really affect it. The only thing that can derail the Switch now is if Nintendo themselves fail to maintain its momentum with price cuts, hardware revisions, and killer app software.

This is all true...if the Switch starts getting treated more like a handheld and not a console it will still do just fine.

 

However the idea of current gen console games on the go will die withe the release of PS5/next box unless we see a NEW Switch that will still get those games at a scaled down level.

 

It is not a question of whether or not it can still do well.  It is a question of whether or not it can keep the very foundation of being a true hybrid console when the time comes for hardware upgrades.



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Shiken on 09 July 2018
Zach808 said:
I'm thinking that up until 2023 or so, support will either increase, or stay as is. However, I doubt it's gonna drop off before then. Since every AAA game released for the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X has to run on the base models, it won't depend on when the next gen consoles release, but when support ends for the current gen ones. Devs supported the PS3 and 360 for a couple years after the PS4 and Xbox One released due to the install base, so we're probably gonna be getting current gen games until around 2023, which will have to be cut down to Switch power as usual. After that is when things will get sketchy, unless the install base is crazy high.

Well this is true, but at that point the PS4 and X1 will be pushed more than they are now, even the base models.  This still presents a problem when it comes to ports on a base model Switch.

 

It is a fair point, but we will not know for sure how easily it can be done.  I do believe Japanese support will still be heavily present however as they are not as demanding anyway.



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NoirSon on 09 July 2018

I can see Nintendo making an upgraded Switch to boost performance while still playing Switch games, I mean aside from the fact that they have done it in nearly every handheld generation themselves, MS and Sony bother did the same with the Pro and X.

Time will tell but so far the Switch is poised to devour Japan as the top console, so outside of a few developers most Japanese content will land there and securing domestic strength at home is one of Nintendo's usual focuses.



Miyamotoo on 09 July 2018
jardesonbarbosa said:

Switch is their meal ticket, of course they will say that. But we all know it's not the truth. Switch is not really driving third parties crazy as it is and things will get worse in the near future. Let's just accept the fact that it's not powerful enough and that Nintendo's relationship with most publishers is not the best.

No we dont know that. How Switch keep selling good and install base is getting bigger, I think we will see more and more 3rd party ports (I dont talk only about new games).



jardesonbarbosa on 09 July 2018
Miyamotoo said:
jardesonbarbosa said:

Switch is their meal ticket, of course they will say that. But we all know it's not the truth. Switch is not really driving third parties crazy as it is and things will get worse in the near future. Let's just accept the fact that it's not powerful enough and that Nintendo's relationship with most publishers is not the best.

No we dont know that. How Switch keep selling good and install base is getting bigger, I think we will see more and more 3rd party ports (I dont talk only about new games).

We just came from an E3 where there was basically no third party Switch game announced, but some smartphone games and the usual Just Dance/FIFA/game with toys. Of course we will see more third party support, there are hundreds of PS360/Wii/smartphone games available to port and some japanese developers will move their teams from 3DS/Vita, but that's nothing like Panic Button is suggesting. Switch will always be its own separated thing, home of late gen ports, japanese niche titles and Just Dance, no matter how big the install base is.