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Forums - Sales Discussion - EA with PS4/Xbox One install base estimates

AlfredoTurkey on 11 May 2018
3sexty said:

So Microsoft have come out themselves saying that the EA estimates are wrong. So we are back to where we were before this thread, - our own best estimates. So why are we still trying to continue on with this assumption and convince ourselves that is is correct?

If we can't argue over how many times the pieces of plastic that we own have sold, how are we to judge our own self worth? 



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kirby007 on 11 May 2018
CosmicSex said:
RolStoppable said:

You mean perfectly logical.

That is not logical because it's like saying EA doesn't make money on properties in the region.  Even as speculation for deals in Japan.  At the very least they wouldn't assert the entire volume of PS4s as a function of their business.   Unless they are really taking active consoles into account.   You can just make sales disappear from someone else's count.

Out of 33.8 million units of software sold in japan in 2017 ea sold 170k with fifa and star wars its a niche market for them. I could see why they would exclude japan. Since the installbase in japan isnt their target installbase



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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BraLoD on 11 May 2018

Didn't they estimate a pretty close number to XBO based on what we knew for PS4 last year?
Someone here said 26M for XBO, which would mean they were either pulling XBO from their ass last time or this time, 3M in 2017 is so wrong that it makes VGC estimates valid as solid truth.



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DonFerrari on 11 May 2018
AlfredoTurkey said:
DonFerrari said: If you only care about games that are target to USA ok, but if you want the diverse IPs them you are in trouble.

I own all three, so I don't have such troubles. 

You aren't the market, but ok.

 

and @MS saying the numbers aren't accurate, who would guess they wouldn't say the right numbers right?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

kirby007 on 11 May 2018
DonFerrari said:
AlfredoTurkey said:

I own all three, so I don't have such troubles. 

You aren't the market, but ok.

 

and @MS saying the numbers aren't accurate, who would guess they wouldn't say the right numbers right?

goshdarn EA gives an estimate and we pray hossana, MS says those are wrong and MS is the devil.



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

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RolStoppable on 11 May 2018
CosmicSex said:
RolStoppable said:

You mean perfectly logical.

That is not logical because it's like saying EA doesn't make money on properties in the region.  Even as speculation for deals in Japan.  At the very least they wouldn't assert the entire volume of PS4s as a function of their business.   Unless they are really taking active consoles into account.   You can just make sales disappear from someone else's count.

EA has excluded Japanese console sales before, so concluding that they are doing it again is not a stretch in the least. It is the most reasonable conclusion to make, because that way all the numbers add up.

The only thing left that's questionable is their estimate for 2018 sales (27m combined between PS4 and XB1), but they might just be very confident that both Sony and Microsoft have an official price cut on all SKUs this year and great holiday deals again, ultimately leading to only a slight decline for the PS4 (17m compared to last year's ~18m; remember, Japan is excluded) and an increase from ~8m to 10m for the XB1 with the expectation that the Xbox One X helps in 2018 like the PS4 Pro helped the PS4 in 2017. It's not an impossible forecast, but it's clearly on the optimistic end of the range.



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3sexty on 11 May 2018
AlfredoTurkey said:
3sexty said:

So Microsoft have come out themselves saying that the EA estimates are wrong. So we are back to where we were before this thread, - our own best estimates. So why are we still trying to continue on with this assumption and convince ourselves that is is correct?

If we can't argue over how many times the pieces of plastic that we own have sold, how are we to judge our own self worth? 

That is an amazing comment. 



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Errorist76 on 11 May 2018
jason1637 said:
MS said the numbers are inaccurate.https://mspoweruser.com/ea-suggests-that-microsoft-sold-around-30-million-xbox-one-consoles-by-the-end-of-2017/
“The projections are inaccurate,” a spokesperson told Variety. “Regardless, we are focused on delivering amazing gaming experiences to players on all devices and engagement is our measure of progress. We just announced a record start to the year with Xbox Live monthly active users up 13% to 59 million.”

It doesn’t matter what MS says unless they finally release some numbers, cowardly snakes that they are. This statement sounds just like another deception, nothing more.

Those XBox Live numbers mean nothing, since they count every PC user that has made an account in there.

Last edited by Errorist76 - on 11 May 2018

DonFerrari on 11 May 2018
kirby007 said:
DonFerrari said:

You aren't the market, but ok.

and @MS saying the numbers aren't accurate, who would guess they wouldn't say the right numbers right?

goshdarn EA gives an estimate and we pray hossana, MS says those are wrong and MS is the devil.

Of course he should appreciate their estimate since it's the only one we get besides VGC. And MS did say they aren't accurate... but for like 3 or 4 years refuse to say the numbers, so not the devil, but why should they receive any positive remarks for saying "it isn't accurate"?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

p53sionix on 11 May 2018
CosmicSex said:
p53sionix said:

EA doesn't know, it's estimating, and so are we. Of course we can't know for sure what the Xbox numbers are.

EA estimation is no way as contrived as ours.  You think they would form partnerships with Microsoft without first knowing?  That's not how business works.  You don't for partnerships in utter ignorance.   

I assumed you previously said EA didn't know - as in for sure - when I made that comment. Your use of double negatives was quite confusing... Yes EA definitely knows something - but logically if they know both pieces of information (the PS4 sales minus Japan and the total PS4 and Xbox1 sales) then we can work out what Xbox1 sales would be. We have a very small error margin for Xbox1 worldwide, but for Japan mathematically we have a 0% error margin (that is if we assume EA themselves are 100% correct).