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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - NPD sales: Switch (2018) VS Wii (2008)

 

Switch sales in USA in 2018?

4 million or less 6 8.00%
 
4-5 million 4 5.33%
 
5-6 million 14 18.67%
 
6-7 million 16 21.33%
 
7-8 million 11 14.67%
 
8-9 million 7 9.33%
 
9-10 million 7 9.33%
 
over 10 million 10 13.33%
 
Total:75
Barkley said:
Mbolibombo said:

So you're not sure about that 4.5? ;)

No problems, I can take that 5.2 bet.

Just a reminder in case you've forgotten about this, only two months till you'll get the result of this bet.

well see, i won all my bets so far, this one i think is 50/50.



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quickrick said:
RolStoppable said:

Looks like another instance of a wrong call.

LOL another win for me :).

There's still Smash month. If your bet supposedly still has a 50/50 chance, then Switch beating Wii in December is definitely at least a 50/50 chance as well.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
quickrick said:

LOL another win for me :).

There's still Smash month. If your bet supposedly still has a 50/50 chance, then Switch beating Wii in December is definitely at least a 50/50 chance as well.

it won't. remember having a strong November means a weaker december these days.



Completely forgot this thread was a thing lol

Now that i think about that i have many threads to bump... Anyway, update!



quickrick said:
RolStoppable said:

There's still Smash month. If your bet supposedly still has a 50/50 chance, then Switch beating Wii in December is definitely at least a 50/50 chance as well.

it won't. remember having a strong November means a weaker december these days.

That's not the truth though.

What is true is that a huge deal in November shifts sales from December into November. Since Nintendo doesn't offer such deals, their Decembers continue to be notably bigger than their Novembers.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Around the Network
quickrick said:
RolStoppable said:

There's still Smash month. If your bet supposedly still has a 50/50 chance, then Switch beating Wii in December is definitely at least a 50/50 chance as well.

it won't. remember having a strong November means a weaker december these days.

Nintendo's bigger November will because of Pokemon, not $100 off like Sony and Microsoft. And there's that little indie game Smash coming out in December as well. 



Mnementh said:
Barkley said:

Well, this thread never got updated after January! xD


Here's updated table.

NPD Switch (2018) Wii (2008)
January 270,000 274,000
February 279,000 432,000
March 308,000 721,000
April 171,000 714,000
May 166,000 675,000
June 325,000 667,000
July 263,000 555,000
August 203,000 453,000
September 259,000 667,000
October 255,000 803,000
November
2,040,000
December
2,150,000
 Total 2,499,000 10,151,000

My current prediction for November is 1.25m and December 2m. Which would mean the Switch reached 5.75m for the year.

It has a small chance to beat Wii in December I think, but other then that January is the only month it came close.

Thanks for updating the numbers. The Wii was truly a beast. Strangely in December the sales were flat compared to November. Was the Wii supply limited?

I am pretty sure Wii was supply limited.  It was pretty infamous in the US for being supply limited during 2006-2008, especially during the holidays.  Ironically this will probably mean Switch will beat the Wii in December.  Nintendo only has 2 big guns this year, Pokemon and Smash, and they saved them both for the end of the year.  If they end up running some of their many bundles at $299 during December, then I think its a guarantee that Switch will win this last month.  We'll just have to wait and see.



quickrick said:
Ryng_Tolu said:
While i don't see Switch winning, i'm sure results will be closer than what people expect.

I vote for the 7-8 million range.

switch won't even win one month.

Great prediction! 

 

November it won't win so that just leaves December. God you're good at this numbers game. 



quickrick said:
RolStoppable said:

There's still Smash month. If your bet supposedly still has a 50/50 chance, then Switch beating Wii in December is definitely at least a 50/50 chance as well.

it won't. remember having a strong November means a weaker december these days.

I thought the Switch had a stronger December than November last year.