Forums - Gaming Discussion - 2017 is not ps4's peak year!

UltimateGamer1982 said:
CGI-Quality said:

If Switch was going to have that kind of impact, 2017 would have been the year to do it. Instead, with both the Switch and Xbox One X releases, they had no effect on the PS4 (with the system having its highest sales in a calendar year yet). I expect 2018 to be better to it. God of War and Spider-Man will surely move units and the $199 price drop is likely. No, it was not already used. Temp price cuts don't work like that and a $100 price drop will have a significant impact on system sales, regardless of last holiday.

Of course, a very slight decline is still possible, but it will not be on the terms you proposed.

True but was switch not heavily supply constrained for much of 2017? Nintendo even stated late summer I believe just they were gonna be ramping up production a bit more. It also won several months of npd last year despite the supply shortage. Not to mention the switch had no good deals in America this Christmas and was full price against a $199-$249 PS4 and $189 Xbox S. If memory serves, PS4 also didn’t have any good deals in 2014 other than a gta5 bundle at full price whereas Xbox was heavily discounted with the Assassin creed bundle and beat PS4 handily. 

Personally I see switch having a much better 2018 now that they have a more steady stream of units hitting shelves. 

Even under a better production outcome for the Switch, it's not likely to effect the PS4 in any significant way. They sell to two different demographics. 

Next, the Xbox One only gave the PS4 some trouble in the US during the holiday 2014 period (and that was only after a temp price cut - to which the PS4 wiped all of those US gains out the following year). The latter destroyed Xbox overall. Here, I'm talking the peak of a system worldwide. And, remember, demographics dictate a lot.

Last edited by CGI-Quality - on 10 January 2018

                                                                                                             

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CGI-Quality said:
UltimateGamer1982 said:

True but was switch not heavily supply constrained for much of 2017? Nintendo even stated late summer I believe just they were gonna be ramping up production a bit more. It also won several months of npd last year despite the supply shortage. Not to mention the switch had no good deals in America this Christmas and was full price against a $199-$249 PS4 and $189 Xbox S. If memory serves, PS4 also didn’t have any good deals in 2014 other than a gta5 bundle at full price whereas Xbox was heavily discounted with the Assassin creed bundle and beat PS4 handily. 

Personally I see switch having a much better 2018 now that they have a more steady stream of units hitting shelves. 

Even under a better production outcome for the Switch, it's not going to effect the PS4 in any significant way. They sell to two different demographics. 

Next, the Xbox One only gave the PS4 some trouble in the US during the holiday 2014 period (and that was only after a temp price cut - to which the PS4 wiped all of those US gains out the following year). The latter destroyed Xbox overall. Here, I'm talking the peak of a system worldwide. And, remember, demographics dictate a lot.

Very true. But here’s my thing. Not even ps2 was up in its 5th full year which you’re thinking PS4 might be and others are too. The only consoles I think were up YoY were maybe the Wii or 360 with Kinect. But PS4 doesn’t have anything to spur sales to a greater threshold like Kinect did. 

So even though I predicted a decline from 2017, it wouldn’t surprise me if PS4 proves me wrong. I’m hopeful it does. I’m curious how close it comes to that 155m sold by its grandpa. 



UltimateGamer1982 said:
CGI-Quality said:

-snip

Very true. But here’s my thing. Not even ps2 was up in its 5th full year which you’re thinking PS4 might be and others are too. The only consoles I think were up YoY were maybe the Wii or 360 with Kinect. But PS4 doesn’t have anything to spur sales to a greater threshold like Kinect did. 

So even though I predicted a decline from 2017, it wouldn’t surprise me if PS4 proves me wrong. I’m hopeful it does. I’m curious how close it comes to that 155m sold by its grandpa. 

Continuing to ignore what a $199 price drop will do means you're missing the bigger picture (never mind key exclusive titles that will make for a solid year) - and if you sincerely think that price can't do what Kinect did for the 360, then I don't know what else to say. And this is on top of the shift in your argument. 

So, we should just wait till January 2019 and revisit this discussion.

Last edited by CGI-Quality - on 10 January 2018

                                                                                                             

UltimateGamer1982 said:
I’m inclined to believe 2017 was the peak year and 2018 will see a small decline. PS4 sold 20.2m in 2017. I see it selling less of about 17-19m just on the basis of Switch and the console getting long in the tooth. Same goes for 2019. Probably another 16-17m. Of course I could be wrong but I don’t see it keeping these kind of sales up. The $199 was already used so I don’t think it’ll have that big of an impact the second time. It should have stayed $199 imo. But overall 2018 will still be a very good year for PS4. Of course I could be wrong but I don’t think I am. Feel free to bump this comment this time next year. :)

If Ps4 in 2018 drops to 17M it will be very improbable for it to hold to 16-17M on 2019. After the peak the drop is more probable than flat years



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I guess no one necroed this one either.



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The one thing that has always been perplexing in these past couple of years was the expectation of a $100 price cut after Sony had cut the price by $50 twice. Price drops have the same or smaller values over time, they don't get bigger than early on.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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