Forums - Gaming Discussion - "The Nintendo Switch Is Selling Exactly As Fast As Sony's PS4" - Forbes

Do you agree with the article?

Yes, Switch will KILL the PS4! 18 12.95%
 
No, PS4 will remain champion! 74 53.24%
 
Hard to tell right now, time will only tell. 47 33.81%
 
Total:139
DonFerrari said:
SpokenTruth said:

He does make an interesting point.

PS4 sold a tremendously respectful ~70 million in 4 years.  Can it really sell ~80 million more in the next 3 years before PS5 launches?  That's a rate of almost 27 million per year. This is PS4's best year and it will be hard to even hit 20 million.

PS2 enjoyed a massive amount of expanded territory growth after PS3 launched.  I don't see PS4 getting that same kind of territory growth after PS5 releases. PS3 fell off sharply after PS4 released and now PS4 is already available in China and India. It won't have that untapped market potential that drove PS2 to 150 million. 

120 million is the zone. That's an average of 13.3 million over the next 3 years before PS5. It may push to 130 million but that will be tough.


Of course, this is all based on common console generation cycles.  They could release a PS4 Super Pro in 2019 for all we know.

Well PS4 won't stop selling after PS5 releases, but yes, by current situation I expect PS4 to reach 120Mm at most 130M. PS3 died quicker after PS4 released because its gen was very long and it never got to the 100-150 pricepoint really. PS4 may achieve that. PS1 and PS2 both sold very large amounts after successor release.

But I agree with you that Sony launching on others territories later in the lifetime than they do now will probably make the tail smaller as well.

Just for comparison, PS1 and PS2 both very early in life were chipped for pirate games so those consoles were popular even in much weaker markets for consoles and they were selling because of that were long time. That isnt and want be case with PS4.



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Miyamotoo said:
DonFerrari said:

Well PS4 won't stop selling after PS5 releases, but yes, by current situation I expect PS4 to reach 120Mm at most 130M. PS3 died quicker after PS4 released because its gen was very long and it never got to the 100-150 pricepoint really. PS4 may achieve that. PS1 and PS2 both sold very large amounts after successor release.

But I agree with you that Sony launching on others territories later in the lifetime than they do now will probably make the tail smaller as well.

Just for comparison, PS1 and PS2 both very early in life were chipped for pirate games so those consoles were popular even in much weaker markets for consoles and they were selling because of that were long time. That isnt and want be case with PS4.

X360, Wii also were, so?

And considering PS2 sold over 1.5B SW the notion of CD/DVD and pirating making PS1/2 succeed is false. It's attach ratio was just as good as the best consoles, even more considering the late adopters would have lower attach ratio and drive it down.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:
SpokenTruth said:

He does make an interesting point.

PS4 sold a tremendously respectful ~70 million in 4 years.  Can it really sell ~80 million more in the next 3 years before PS5 launches?  That's a rate of almost 27 million per year. This is PS4's best year and it will be hard to even hit 20 million.

PS2 enjoyed a massive amount of expanded territory growth after PS3 launched.  I don't see PS4 getting that same kind of territory growth after PS5 releases. PS3 fell off sharply after PS4 released and now PS4 is already available in China and India. It won't have that untapped market potential that drove PS2 to 150 million. 

120 million is the zone. That's an average of 13.3 million over the next 3 years before PS5. It may push to 130 million but that will be tough.


Of course, this is all based on common console generation cycles.  They could release a PS4 Super Pro in 2019 for all we know.

Well PS4 won't stop selling after PS5 releases, but yes, by current situation I expect PS4 to reach 120Mm at most 130M. PS3 died quicker after PS4 released because its gen was very long and it never got to the 100-150 pricepoint really. PS4 may achieve that. PS1 and PS2 both sold very large amounts after successor release.

But I agree with you that Sony launching on others territories later in the lifetime than they do now will probably make the tail smaller as well.

PS1 and Ps2 both sold high numbers (around 20-25m) in Japan though something I don't think PS4 will achieve and will impact that, both those prior systems had very different situations in the industry to what PS4 has today as well.



DonFerrari said:
Miyamotoo said:

Just for comparison, PS1 and PS2 both very early in life were chipped for pirate games so those consoles were popular even in much weaker markets for consoles and they were selling because of that were long time. That isnt and want be case with PS4.

X360, Wii also were, so?

And considering PS2 sold over 1.5B SW the notion of CD/DVD and pirating making PS1/2 succeed is false. It's attach ratio was just as good as the best consoles, even more considering the late adopters would have lower attach ratio and drive it down.

Yes they are, and Wii also was quite popular on weaker markets also, cheap and pirated console is great recipe for selling good even on weak markets.

One of reasons why PS2 was so popular even in weaker markets is definitely fact that is completely pirated for very long time and very cheap in same time. I talking about weak markets, offocurse that on West and stronger markets people usually don't pirate in any case, I live in Balkan in Europe and plenty of people had PS2 here but almost nobody both even one original game, I personally didn't both one single original PS1 or PS2 game. :)

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 21 December 2017

Wyrdness said:
DonFerrari said:

Well PS4 won't stop selling after PS5 releases, but yes, by current situation I expect PS4 to reach 120Mm at most 130M. PS3 died quicker after PS4 released because its gen was very long and it never got to the 100-150 pricepoint really. PS4 may achieve that. PS1 and PS2 both sold very large amounts after successor release.

But I agree with you that Sony launching on others territories later in the lifetime than they do now will probably make the tail smaller as well.

PS1 and Ps2 both sold high numbers (around 20-25m) in Japan though something I don't think PS4 will achieve and will impact that, both those prior systems had very different situations in the industry to what PS4 has today as well.

Sure PS4 won't reach similar numbers to those in Japan, perhaps half. But at the same time, Europe and RotW growth a lot and will offset the Japan loses. But on this gen PS4 have faced strong competition from X1 on USA and that with Japan will make a great diffence.

Miyamotoo said:
DonFerrari said:

X360, Wii also were, so?

And considering PS2 sold over 1.5B SW the notion of CD/DVD and pirating making PS1/2 succeed is false. It's attach ratio was just as good as the best consoles, even more considering the late adopters would have lower attach ratio and drive it down.

Yes they are, and Wii also was quite popular on weaker markets also, cheap and pirated console is great recipe for selling good even on weak markets.

One of reasons why PS2 was so popular even in weaker markets is definitely fact that is completely pirated for very long time and very cheap in same time. I talking about weak markets, offocurse that on West and stronger markets people usually don't pirate in any case, I live in Balkan in Europe and plenty of people had PS2 here but almost nobody both even one original game, I personally didn't both one single original PS1 or PS2 game. :)

Brazil was similar up to X360 (that also sold great because of pirating, but with XBL there were a lot that forfeit pirating to play online). Sony didn't even officially launch PS1 and 2 here due to pirating.

But all summed, those sales were the smaller part of the pie, and in Brazil and probably a lot of other countries gone by grey market on USA imports.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

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DonFerrari said:
Wyrdness said:

PS1 and Ps2 both sold high numbers (around 20-25m) in Japan though something I don't think PS4 will achieve and will impact that, both those prior systems had very different situations in the industry to what PS4 has today as well.

Sure PS4 won't reach similar numbers to those in Japan, perhaps half. But at the same time, Europe and RotW growth a lot and will offset the Japan loses. But on this gen PS4 have faced strong competition from X1 on USA and that with Japan will make a great diffence.

Miyamotoo said:

Yes they are, and Wii also was quite popular on weaker markets also, cheap and pirated console is great recipe for selling good even on weak markets.

One of reasons why PS2 was so popular even in weaker markets is definitely fact that is completely pirated for very long time and very cheap in same time. I talking about weak markets, offocurse that on West and stronger markets people usually don't pirate in any case, I live in Balkan in Europe and plenty of people had PS2 here but almost nobody both even one original game, I personally didn't both one single original PS1 or PS2 game. :)

Brazil was similar up to X360 (that also sold great because of pirating, but with XBL there were a lot that forfeit pirating to play online). Sony didn't even officially launch PS1 and 2 here due to pirating.

But all summed, those sales were the smaller part of the pie, and in Brazil and probably a lot of other countries gone by grey market on USA imports.

Yeah, pirated and cheap consoles were especially popular on markets that didn't had official release of those platform, because they didn't need to care about games, and PS2 was selling great on those markets even couple of year after relase PS3.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 21 December 2017

Miyamotoo said:
DonFerrari said:

Sure PS4 won't reach similar numbers to those in Japan, perhaps half. But at the same time, Europe and RotW growth a lot and will offset the Japan loses. But on this gen PS4 have faced strong competition from X1 on USA and that with Japan will make a great diffence.

Brazil was similar up to X360 (that also sold great because of pirating, but with XBL there were a lot that forfeit pirating to play online). Sony didn't even officially launch PS1 and 2 here due to pirating.

But all summed, those sales were the smaller part of the pie, and in Brazil and probably a lot of other countries gone by grey market on USA imports.

Yeah, pirated and cheap consoles were especially popular on markets that didn't had official release of those platform, because they didn't need to care about games, and PS2 was selling great on those markets even couple of year after relase PS3.

Yep... And Brazil is so unique that we still have Tectoy manufacturing Genesis to this days =]



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:
Miyamotoo said:

Yeah, pirated and cheap consoles were especially popular on markets that didn't had official release of those platform, because they didn't need to care about games, and PS2 was selling great on those markets even couple of year after relase PS3.

Yep... And Brazil is so unique that we still have Tectoy manufacturing Genesis to this days =]

We we specify didn't had Genesis but I can swear I saw PS2 Slim in shops like around two years ago. :)



Miyamotoo said:
DonFerrari said:

Yep... And Brazil is so unique that we still have Tectoy manufacturing Genesis to this days =]

We we specify didn't had Genesis but I can swear I saw PS2 Slim in shops like around two years ago. :)

And from what I heard besides the special NES/SNES Nintendo is doing these couple years the original NES was still being produced in Japan some years ago. (Besides the knock-offs that Dynavision produced since the early 90's in Brazil that are still somewhat being sold). It's funny to think that considering the price of the HW, the price of original SW (that may not be easy to find) so many still go and buy those as their main consoles and not collector or enthusiast people.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Miyamotoo said:
DonFerrari said:

X360, Wii also were, so?

And considering PS2 sold over 1.5B SW the notion of CD/DVD and pirating making PS1/2 succeed is false. It's attach ratio was just as good as the best consoles, even more considering the late adopters would have lower attach ratio and drive it down.

Yes they are, and Wii also was quite popular on weaker markets also, cheap and pirated console is great recipe for selling good even on weak markets.

One of reasons why PS2 was so popular even in weaker markets is definitely fact that is completely pirated for very long time and very cheap in same time. I talking about weak markets, offocurse that on West and stronger markets people usually don't pirate in any case, I live in Balkan in Europe and plenty of people had PS2 here but almost nobody both even one original game, I personally didn't both one single original PS1 or PS2 game. :)

I wouldn't lump ps1 and ps2 together. Here in the UK ps1 had very high levels of piracy but that was much reduced for ps2 due to the greater complexity of modding the console. The original xbox was by far the most hacked/modded console of that generation. A mod was easier to install but you didn't even need to when a softmod came along. People even fitted larger hard drives and installed all their games directly to the hard drive so didn't have to muck about with disk swopping. Most multiformat games were best on original xbox too with proper 5.1 sound, 32bit colour and many other enhancements. If I remember rightly it was often a complaint that many ps2's wouldn't read pirate discs and many of the early mod chips only supported ps1 games on the ps2 console. You used to be able to buy a mod cartridge for ps1 that plugged in the back and allowed you to play copied games and it was ridiculously cheap like £3.99.