Forums - General Discussion - NeoGAF in shambles (now back, no OT discussion, statement from Evilore)

Torillian said:
Aura7541 said:

NPD gets 95% of its data from retailers with the remaining 5% estimated with their proprietary algorithm. Just because both VGC and NPD extrapolate, the nature of the extrapolation is not identical nor is it even close to being identical. In addition, we have to take into account that VGC frequently makes adjustments to its numbers whereas NPD does not. This last point is what makes NPD and VGC extremely different from each other. The former's data are robust enough that the numbers do not have to be changed down the line. The latter's data are inaccurate that the site has to change its numbers often so that they are not horribly off from data from NPD, GFK, press release numbers, and Media Create.

I would be curious to see a source for this 95% claim.

I learned this from Aquamarine. In fact, I can PM him/her for more information if you like.



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Aura7541 said:
Torillian said:

I would be curious to see a source for this 95% claim.

I learned this from Aquamarine. In fact, I can PM him/her for more information if you like.

Sure, I'd like to know the evidence they put forth. Like "we get direct data from 1250 retailers out of the nation's 1300" (obvious fake numbers).



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Torillian said:
RJ_Sizzle said:

NPD is using more empirical data, which VGChartz just plain doesn't have access to. The difference is damn near science vs. magic. Did we ever get an official formula on how Chartz gets their numbers, or is it still pretty much an old woman using tea leaves? You don't ever see NPD having to go back and adjust figures based on VGChartz numbers, no? One of these sources is more reliable than the other.

My description would indeed mean that one of those sources would be reliable than the other. That doesn't make the two processes different processes. They are the same process with different resources. Have you ever been told NPD's official formula?

It's right on their site. What's the one for VGChartz? Jimmies don't get rustled over VGC figures being out in the wild. NPD on the other hand... I wonder why that is.



Torillian said:
Aura7541 said:

I learned this from Aquamarine. In fact, I can PM him/her for more information if you like.

Sure, I'd like to know the evidence they put forth. Like "we get direct data from 1250 retailers out of the nation's 1300" (obvious fake numbers).

There is actually a figure from Aquamarine that has a line similar to that. IIRC, NPD gets data from the majority of retailers like Amazon, Best Buy, Target, and Gamestop. The data that NPD is not able to receive from non-participating retailers are estimated by its algorithm. If by some miracle I can find it, I can put it up here.

EDIT: And I miraculously managed to find the figure just moments later :D. Here's the link because the image is very large:

http://abload.de/img/npdmarch2015finalt3yqu.png



RJ_Sizzle said:
Torillian said:

My description would indeed mean that one of those sources would be reliable than the other. That doesn't make the two processes different processes. They are the same process with different resources. Have you ever been told NPD's official formula?

It's right on their site. What's the one for VGChartz? Jimmies don't get rustled over VGC figures being out in the wild. NPD on the other hand... I wonder why that is.

Show me the equation, I haven't found it through a quick google but you know where it is so make it easy for me. 

I don't wonder, it's because NPD's numbers are more accurate, which I never questioned. What I question is your claim that NPD uses estimates while VGC uses guesses from a hat. Both use estimates, it's a question of degrees of estimate and accuracy, which can be debated. 



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sethnintendo said:
Loving the fallout. Karma is a bitch.

The fallout is what exactly though? Instead of 1 NeoGaf, now there's 2, lol. 



Aura7541 said:
Torillian said:

Sure, I'd like to know the evidence they put forth. Like "we get direct data from 1250 retailers out of the nation's 1300" (obvious fake numbers).

There is actually a figure from Aquamarine that has a line similar to that. IIRC, NPD gets data from the majority of retailers like Amazon, Best Buy, Target, and Gamestop. The data that NPD is not able to receive from non-participating retailers are estimated by its algorithm. If by some miracle I can find it, I can put it up here.

EDIT: And I miraculously managed to find the figure just moments later :D. Here's the link because the image is very large:

http://abload.de/img/npdmarch2015finalt3yqu.png

Thanks, an interesting read. 



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Torillian said:
RJ_Sizzle said:

It's right on their site. What's the one for VGChartz? Jimmies don't get rustled over VGC figures being out in the wild. NPD on the other hand... I wonder why that is.

Show me the equation, I haven't found it through a quick google but you know where it is so make it easy for me. 

I don't wonder, it's because NPD's numbers are more accurate, which I never questioned. What I question is your claim that NPD uses estimates while VGC uses guesses from a hat. Both use estimates, it's a question of degrees of estimate and accuracy, which can be debated. 

Right on the front page of the site.

"How do we do it? Only NPD combines consumer and retail data with industry expertise and business solutions to give you a winning advantage.

We cover more than 20 industries, with unique information assets, based on:

  • Actual point-of-sale (POS) data from retailers, distributors, and foodservice operators
  • More than 1,250 retailers, representing 300,000 stores worldwide, provide point-of-sale data to us.
  • Millions of receipts through all channels (including e-commerce)
  • More than 12 million consumer surveys annually"


RJ_Sizzle said:
Torillian said:

Show me the equation, I haven't found it through a quick google but you know where it is so make it easy for me. 

I don't wonder, it's because NPD's numbers are more accurate, which I never questioned. What I question is your claim that NPD uses estimates while VGC uses guesses from a hat. Both use estimates, it's a question of degrees of estimate and accuracy, which can be debated. 

Right on the front page of the site.

"How do we do it? Only NPD combines consumer and retail data with industry expertise and business solutions to give you a winning advantage.

We cover more than 20 industries, with unique information assets, based on:

  • Actual point-of-sale (POS) data from retailers, distributors, and foodservice operators
  • More than 1,250 retailers, representing 300,000 stores worldwide, provide point-of-sale data to us.
  • Millions of receipts through all channels (including e-commerce)
  • More than 12 million consumer surveys annually"

So when you say "formula" you mean just generalities of coverage? I thought we were talking about their formula for estimating the data they don't get directly. You're correct then, VGC has not, to my recollection, posted specifics on the number of retailers they get direct data from. We know from Brett talking about this previously that there are some, and therefore the difference is in coverage and therefore accuracy. 



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Torillian said:
RJ_Sizzle said:

It's right on their site. What's the one for VGChartz? Jimmies don't get rustled over VGC figures being out in the wild. NPD on the other hand... I wonder why that is.

Show me the equation, I haven't found it through a quick google but you know where it is so make it easy for me. 

I don't wonder, it's because NPD's numbers are more accurate, which I never questioned. What I question is your claim that NPD uses estimates while VGC uses guesses from a hat. Both use estimates, it's a question of degrees of estimate and accuracy, which can be debated. 

I do. If Media Create and Famitsu can publicly release their numbers on a weekly basis then there's no reason at all NPD couldn't be doing the same.



Bet Shiken that COD would outsell Battlefield in 2018. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8749702