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Forums - Sales Discussion - June NPD prediction thread (who will win this months NPD). PS4 Wins (leaked results in OP)

 

Which console will win this month's NPD?

Xbox One 27 4.17%
 
PS4 545 84.10%
 
Nintendo Switch 76 11.73%
 
Total:648
Shadow1980 said:

CHART TIME!

I'm going to start off with some basic monthly data. Quarterly and LTD charts are still being updated.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The PS4 has experienced its best first half to date (+12.4% YoY), while the XBO has experienced its worst. The PS4 Slim & Pro haven't had as big of an effect on PS4 sales as the PS3 Slim did on PS3 sales, but there's still a clear effect, plus the Gold Slim probably helped a lot for June. Meanwhile, the boost provided by the XBO S has clearly fizzled out and then some. The XBO needs a big boost from the X1X this holiday season, because at this point it's looking like the XBO is past its peak, with YTD sales being down 10.6% YoY.

The Switch is doing okay considering the supply shortages, but we still have no idea what its true sales potential is at this point and at this price. We could be looking at a Wii-like situation where sales steadily improve not due to big games or price cuts, but to improvements to supply.

@Bold can you do a chart of H1? Comparing each year that is.



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Farsala said:

@Bold can you do a chart of H1? Comparing each year that is.

Ask and ye shall receive:



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Shadow1980 said:
Farsala said:

@Bold can you do a chart of H1? Comparing each year that is.

Ask and ye shall receive:

Thanks.

This really demostrates the unhealthiness of XB1 lately. It peaked in 2015 and I would also argue 2014 since that was a $500 XB1 with kinect, so much more revenue then 2016 and maybe even 2015. While lately it has been a solid drop and the PS4 is directly benefiting from it.



Farsala said:

Thanks.

This really demostrates the unhealthiness of XB1 lately. It peaked in 2015 and I would also argue 2014 since that was a $500 XB1 with kinect, so much more revenue then 2016 and maybe even 2015. While lately it has been a solid drop and the PS4 is directly benefiting from it.

Combined first-half sales of the two are actually up just shy of 3% YoY, so the XBO's YoY losses have been offset by the PS4's gains. However, their best combined showing was the H1 2015, which was about 3% bigger than H1 2017. Oddly enough, that was the XBO's best first half and the PS4's worst (though the PS4 was down only abou 1.7% YoY in H1 2015, essentially flat, while the XBO was up nearly 6% thanks to the residual effects of its first proper price cut).



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Shadow1980 said:
Farsala said:

Thanks.

This really demostrates the unhealthiness of XB1 lately. It peaked in 2015 and I would also argue 2014 since that was a $500 XB1 with kinect, so much more revenue then 2016 and maybe even 2015. While lately it has been a solid drop and the PS4 is directly benefiting from it.

Combined first-half sales of the two are actually up just shy of 3% YoY, so the XBO's YoY losses have been offset by the PS4's gains. However, their best combined showing was the H1 2015, which was about 3% bigger than H1 2017. Oddly enough, that was the XBO's best first half and the PS4's worst (though the PS4 was down only abou 1.7% YoY in H1 2015, essentially flat, while the XBO was up nearly 6% thanks to the residual effects of its first proper price cut).

Yea I would say PS4 was essentially flat for those 3 years, since it could have been down due to post holiday adjustments that NPD probably does. When in actuality it might have sold more. We don't get the full details, and even people who pay for the NPD reports might not get full details either. And of course the deals change every year.

The trend is clear though for 2017, PS4 up yoy massively and XB1 struggling in the now 3 console market.



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Pretty interesting graph. The Xbox One had a pretty bad first half and it will probably be down up until November.
The PS4 is doing very well, probably because of the Pro because in the past few years PS4 has also had a solid first half lineup so the big boost could be the Pro. I think the PS4 will overall be up YOY for the rest of the year but I'm not sure of it can be its peak year because it would still need to sell around 4 million units from July-December.



Gotta hand it to Sony, not only is the PS4 performing great but the software ecosystem (just as important if not moreso than install base) is extremely vibrant and diverse. Crash Bandicoot and things like Tekken 7, Persona V, Injustice, and Nier showing well on PS4 even in the US shows a wide depth of userbase that's buying more than just shooters.

Playstation has basically just become the go-to console brand and it looks like it's going to be extremely hard to remove Sony from that perch.



Soundwave said:
Gotta hand it to Sony, not only is the PS4 performing great but the software ecosystem (just as important if not moreso than install base) is extremely vibrant and diverse. Crash Bandicoot and things like Tekken 7, Persona V, Injustice, and Nier showing well on PS4 even in the US shows a wide depth of userbase that's buying more than just shooters.

Playstation has basically just become the go-to console brand and it looks like it's going to be extremely hard to remove Sony from that perch.

It's back to its old self, namely its ps1/ps2 self that dominated the competition. And assuming they don't pull a PS3 with PS5, they should remain at the top. 



jason1637 said:

All software ranks are coming this Thursday. With lots of PS4s sold in June I want to see how Crash did.

Edit: Nvm



Nvm