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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: Switch will sell over 100 million units

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Skeeuk said:

its going to go out of fashion soon just you watch

Hm, People said the exact same thing 10 years ago. 



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Skeeuk said:

its going to go out of fashion soon just you watch

You also just said, "switch will be dropping a lot in coming months..." in another thread.

 

Just because you want it to happen, doesn't mean it's going to.



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j.thomaz said:
100 m is 210k per week during 4 years. It is way too much, I still go with my 70-80 million.
Lawlight said:
j.thomaz said:
100 m is 210k per week during 4 years. It is way too much, I still go with my 70-80 million.

It's actually 480k per week for 4 years.

Yes because simple division over time is how we do all predictions and we don't bother to account for any possible high weeks... such as maybe the holidays.

Skeeuk said:

its going to go out of fashion soon just you watch

Noted.



TheWPCTraveler said:
Anfebious said:

Still waiting on that one.

You can bet your ass that Sony will counter the Switch. But it won't come out at least until a couple of years down the road.

The one I was trying to finish downloading was a torrent on nyaa. Unfortunately, I found out two days ago that nyaa is down, forever. There is a replacement, but I'm still checking whether the seeders kept up their work.

Get your ass in motion I want my damn touhou music.



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Slarvax said:

But Nintendo does force new models into the market. The 2DS didn't do them any favours, same with GBA micro and to some extent the DSi XL.

Newer models could be very favourable because they use resources more efficiently. I doubt they'll introduce a Switch Lite before Q4 2018, but there's no doubt in my mind they will make a new model.

The 2DS was a response to the 3DS struggling in the West. It was designed to be a low-price Pokemon machine for NA and Europe and it absolutely served that purpose.

Immediate response to the Switch has been much warmer than to the 3DS in the West. I can't predict the future but I don't yet see the need to be discussing a new model so soon.

Also the original 3DS hardware was kinda crappy and it needed a redesign. The Switch is pretty solid by comparison.



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j.thomaz said:
zorg1000 said:

If we were strictly talking about home consoles you may have a point but you said "Nintendo as a whole" so you can't just ignore the side of their business that has made up about 70% of their hardware sales in the last 20 years.

 

NES+G&W-104 million

SNES+GB-113 million

N64+GBC-87 million

GC+GBA-103 million

Wii+DS-255 million

Wii U+3DS-will finish over 85 million

 

I dont see a constant decline, i see relative stability (85-115 million) in 5/6 generations with one that did significantly better.

I like your analysis. Thank you for it.

thank you for liking it



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Back in January, a couple of weeks after the Switch’s low point (That janky January conference), I said the switch would sell 80M Lifetime.

This is assuming they discontinue the 3DS, Vita, and Wii U, and developers from all 3 platforms move over to the Nintendo Switch.

The Wii U has already ended, and I think the Vita has to be close to ending production. The last piece is when will Nintendo finish the 3DS. I think it will be before 2019.

Once that happens the Switch is the de facto handheld console, which, historically, has always done very well for Nintendo.

The sweet creme filling is that they have successfully raised the price ceiling of handheld games to $60. This is a great opportunity for larger games to expand the handheld market (such as Breath of the Wild).

And, the Switch is very capable hardware with very good middleware support.

Plus, being portable and always multiplayer ready with 2 joycon makes this system the most social gaming system yet. It is so so easy to jump in and start playing with friends without any additional cost, hardware, or preparation. Natural viral marketing at its finest.

Oh and icing on the cake, it is also a Home Console. :P

If Nintendo hits a home run at e3 I will revise my prediction to 100M Lifetime.



Soundwave said:

Switch is a very different product than even the Wii or DS ... it is not being driven by casual evergreen type fads, it will have a very different lifecycle IMO, it will be quite interesting.

It's the first Nintendo system to sell this well out of the gate mainly off well just regular software in a long, long time. 

"Evergreen fads" has to be a first.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

A big prediction

I think it has the potential, though I'm still doubtful



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RolStoppable said:
VGPolyglot said:

I don't see it doing that well for that long.

Well, it's a prediction for 125m units.

Still, why wouldn't Switch be around for a long time? Are you falling into the same trap as many others and believe that processing power is a cause for concern?

It's a combination of power, age and cost effectiveness. Devices still sporting a Tegra X1 chip in 2024? That's not going to happen, the chip won't even be manufactured anymore, it'll have been replaced several times over.

A Switch successor or a more powerful switch will be on the market by the end of 2021.