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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - 80+ Million Switches Need to be Sold in 5 Years or it's a Failure

zorg1000 said:
Norion said:

Yep I do wonder what Quickrick would've said in response to the Switch taking off in 2020. While too much of it is bad a bit of ridiculousness can add a lot of entertainment value.

Clearly those sales don’t count because of the pandemic. People were forced to buy a video game console they didn’t want because everything was shut down.

Exactly. It's still only at about 50m so there's no way it's gonna reach the 3DS let alone the Wii at this point.



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Norion said:
zorg1000 said:

People like Quickrick, Lawlight & Potatohamster being gone has made this site so much more boring.

Yep I do wonder what Quickrick would've said in response to the Switch taking off in 2020. While too much of it is bad a bit of ridiculousness can add a lot of entertainment value.

I made a record of some of his greatest hits for my own amusement back in the old days. A few I noted down:

- Switch won't win any NPD in 2018
- Smash Ultimate will sell 8-10 million lifetime (Currently at 28.17m)
- Pokémon Let's Go will sell 6-8 million lifetime (Currently at 14.53m)

And of course, the Granddaddy of them all:
- Switch will fall of a cliff in 2018



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
Norion said:

Yep I do wonder what Quickrick would've said in response to the Switch taking off in 2020. While too much of it is bad a bit of ridiculousness can add a lot of entertainment value.

I made a record of some of his greatest hits for my own amusement back in the old days. A few I noted down:

- Switch won't win any NPD in 2018
- Smash Ultimate will sell 8-10 million lifetime (Currently at 28.17m)
- Pokémon Let's Go will sell 6-8 million lifetime (Currently at 14.53m)

And of course, the Granddaddy of them all:
- Switch will fall of a cliff in 2018

Brilliant. One of the greatest minds the world has been blessed with.



Just looked through this whole thread and there are some massively stupid posts here.
Like HOLY SHIT!



DroidKnight said:

With the Nintendo Switch being both a, handheld and home console (hybrid); it will need to have an increase in hardware sales when factoring in the last 5-6 years of the 3DS and Wii U sales combined.  A Switch Mini will probably take over the handheld console slot, but what's different is the same cartridge will be utilized on both devices (no need to purchase software twice).  Less software being sold means more hardware sold is needed to offset potential losses from the previous generation.  80 million is being conservative, when factoring in 2 console's hardware sales. 

This line of reasoning never made sense, even in 2017.

The whole Switch was setup to maximize profitability (unique development environment instead of being split, push toward higher margin digital sales and additional revenue through cheap DLCs, online subscription bring in recurring revenue etc.).

Switch is going to sell less hardware and software than Wii+DS yet the Switch era is going to be much much more profitable than the Wii/DS era.



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Endymion said:

This line of reasoning never made sense, even in 2017.

The whole Switch was setup to maximize profitability (unique development environment instead of being split, push toward higher margin digital sales and additional revenue through cheap DLCs, online subscription bring in recurring revenue etc.).

Switch is going to sell less hardware and software than Wii+DS yet the Switch era is going to be much much more profitable than the Wii/DS era.

Pretty funny that the PS3 is now considered a decent success and the Wii U is considered as a huge failure. The losses that Sony made in 2007 alone were larger than a losses of Nintendo over the lifetime of the Wii U generation combined and it took until 2018 for Sony to make up for the losses they had in the PS3 generation.



zorg1000 said:
RolStoppable said:

Ah yes, one of these old threads that were filled with hamster posts.

As for the topic itself, 80m turned out to be a low hurdle.

People like Quickrick, Lawlight & Potatohamster being gone has made this site so much more boring.

Certainly, but at the same time there's always the lingering question how the mod team would handle a spiritual successor to any of them. The discussions with these people look hilarious in hindsight, but at the time they occured, it was common that they were exhausting because they were spread over multiple threads concurrently.

More generally speaking, the site has become more boring because the most prominent critics of Nintendo - the PS fanbase - has eroded over the years. Part of it has to be that Switch sold too well to get away with trolling, but another part of it is also their involvement in pre-Switch launch threads where they embarrassed themselves with their strong opinions.

Then there's the lack of software sales estimates due to digital games growing more important, so since the start of 2019 more and more people in general left the VGC forum. This did not only affect sales discussion, but general gaming discussions as well. Nowadays we have the situation that the number of comments on articles is commonly higher than in the corresponding threads on the forum; that is, if the forum even gets a corresponding thread made.

The bottom line is that far fewer active people overall means a lot less interesting characters, be it good or bad.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

curl-6 said:
Norion said:

Yep I do wonder what Quickrick would've said in response to the Switch taking off in 2020. While too much of it is bad a bit of ridiculousness can add a lot of entertainment value.

I made a record of some of his greatest hits for my own amusement back in the old days. A few I noted down:

- Switch won't win any NPD in 2018
- Smash Ultimate will sell 8-10 million lifetime (Currently at 28.17m)
- Pokémon Let's Go will sell 6-8 million lifetime (Currently at 14.53m)

And of course, the Granddaddy of them all:
- Switch will fall of a cliff in 2018

Can you link me one of those threads? Would be an interesting read.



holzi said:
Endymion said:

This line of reasoning never made sense, even in 2017.

The whole Switch was setup to maximize profitability (unique development environment instead of being split, push toward higher margin digital sales and additional revenue through cheap DLCs, online subscription bring in recurring revenue etc.).

Switch is going to sell less hardware and software than Wii+DS yet the Switch era is going to be much much more profitable than the Wii/DS era.

Pretty funny that the PS3 is now considered a decent success and the Wii U is considered as a huge failure. The losses that Sony made in 2007 alone were larger than a losses of Nintendo over the lifetime of the Wii U generation combined and it took until 2018 for Sony to make up for the losses they had in the PS3 generation.

It depends on how you define success and failure.  If you define success as "was this console fun to play", then I would pick the PS3 over the Wii U.  On the other hand if you define success as "how profitable was this console", then the PS3 might be the biggest failure in the history of gaming.  (Although, we don't know how much money any of these XBox console lost....)

I personally think it is easier to make a console that people like if you are willing and able to lose billions of dollars in the process, and that makes the PS3's install base somewhat less impressive.  It takes more business skill to make a highly profitable console that is also well loved by consumers.  However, we tend to get at least one console like this in every generation, and I think everyone can agree the consoles that are both highly profitable and popular are successful.



Nah, Switch needs to sell 200m lifetime or it's a failure.

Take this early L + ratio.