I am extrapolating month 3 sales based on month 2 sales and the knowledge that Switch is still selling through its stock quickly. There's no good reason to assume that month 3 sales will be notably lower than month 2 sales. But even ignoring that. VGC has been showing weekly sales of ~200k after the launch month. Wii U had weekly sales of ~40k. That's a huge gap.
You're right about that. Maybe my prediction doesn't seem so realistic right now. But keep in mind that console sales tend to become more frontloaded as the generations pass by. I still think my prediction has a good chance to be close to reality.
Your Wii U breakdown combines 2012 and 2013 for a period of 14 months that includes two holiday seasons. This skews the numbers and is not an accurate or honest representation of how Wii U performed.
13 months and that includes one and a half (or less) Christmas seasons. It skews the numbers a little bit but it's still far better than 2012 being 1 month.
My prediction for Switch lifetime sales is more than 100m units. I am obviously factoring in that Switch is the successor to both the Wii U and 3DS and that's the most blatant mistake in your prediction. You are aware that your prediction will be very wrong if Switch is also replacing the 3DS.
Yes I am. I had to accept the risk. As you are accepting the opposite risk by assuming NS is replacing 3DS.
You're aware that you're predicting for NS less than a half of the 7th gen and little more than the 8th gen (worst gen in Nintendo's history), right?
My signature contains the link to one of my threads, but I post it for convenience because many members have disabled signatures in their VGC settings.
The thread was created shortly after the Switch presentation in January and calls out all predictions of 50m or less. This means that I was and am so confident in Switch that I consider anything below 60m ridiculous.
Very interesting. I didn't have the time to read it yet but I've noticed there's a topic just for NS's lifetime sales predictions. The poll isn't actually well conceived because the higher numbers are naturally more spread. Anyway, I thought people were more optimistic about NS. It seems that I'm not that isolated.
Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 100M XOne: 70M WiiU: 25M
Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 100M XOne: 50M WiiU: 18M
Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 90M XOne: 40M WiiU: 15M Switch: 20M
Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 110M XOne: 50M WiiU: 14M Switch: 65M