Tagging. Shitz be getting real

In Rol we trust

Brilliant.

I like this GAF post. Shows the early success of the Switch. http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=235336573

This thread reminds me of the Splatoon prediction threads from 2 years ago.

Interesting thread, and it should be a very interesting few years to see where Switch sales go.

Though it is a small sample size, between my friends, family and a few co workers that are gamers I see a definite interest in the switch and Nintendo that hasn't been there for multiple generations.

Of the 15 people I know as gamers, only 3 bought a Wii U (and i'm pretty sure one was a used one).

I know that ten of them intend on getting the Switch within its first year, with three of them already buying one ( including a PC gamer who hasn't owned a console since PS2/Wii).

Like i said, its a small sample , but Nintendo is doing something interesting or different enough to get the attention of people who haven't played their consoles for years.

i personally think even getting to 40-50 million, which is possible, would be a great success, but that's just my opinion.

Nice predictions.

It's still really early, but I think 100 million looks very feasible now, and as Rol's commented, the low end predictions are dissipating. No way Switch will sell less than 20 million.

In my opinion, Nintendo has set the pace for Gen 9 and it's hard to imagine where Sony and MS will go from here. With PS4 Pro and Scorpio...is there any point in putting out a PS5 or XBox 4 in the next 18 months? Sony has already failed to beat Nintendo in the handheld market twice, MS just doesn't seem interested.

Well, I better tag this for later.

Ouch. The Switch hasn't received its first true exclusive yet and it's shattering all expectations. Evident by the perception so far, the price isn't too high, so I was wrong on that as well.

My eyes are opened.

Still early to make reliable predictions. I don't think Nintendo have satisfied their core audience yet in numbers, that might be 6 million and then we have to see how it attracts a wider more casual audience. It still feels to me that like the DS and DS lite situation the real Switch seller will not be the mk1 console but a smaller cheaper mk2 version.

However the reality is its based on a scalable architecture that will improve with time. The wii u was end of line and the last powerpc based console we will ever see. Nintendo have adopted pretty standard technology with Switch so what would have been a standalone model can now be updated with newer more powerful systems with fallback compatibility modes. By this nature alone the Switch will sell far more than wii u because it represents a range of gradually improving models rather than a single model.

Really the debate is how many mk1 Switches will be sold before the new improved mk2 model will be launched. I can see the Switch brand being used many years into the future so difficult to predict numbers for the complete Switch range. What if Switch models are still being produced into 2030 but those models are 10-30x more powerful than the current models do they still count in the numbers which could for the complete range lets say be 100-200 million or perhaps even more.

As ever it will be interesting to see how it unfolds with Nintendo.

I do feel the current success of the Switch is fragmented which isn't uncommon in gaming, some markets have taken to it strongly others more resistant to it. Sometimes you see one person stating its not selling too well in their country and another saying it's selling very well in their country and there is denial about the other's opinion which is a bit ridiculous because clearly both can be true.