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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 92.87m by September 30th, Forecast for Current Fiscal Year Revised Down to 24.0m (Semiconductor Shortages)

Intrinsic said:
RolStoppable said:

And no, you couldn't argue the points that I've made, because you are already displaying struggles with the basics. You judge how many Nintendo fans remain by pointing towards Wii U sales, completely ignoring the 3DS. And you imply that the claim that the Wii sold because of Nintendo games is outrageous; may god help us all.

Ok... lets try this.....

I judge how many nintendo fans remain by referencing the wiiU. Yes thats tru, and I won't fault you for jumping at that cause i didnt take the time to elaborate. As far as nintendo goes, you have their home console and their handheld console divisions. Lets start with handhelds.

Its easy looking at the 3DS and say but it sold 60M. But to do that and not mention that in sold only half as much as the 2DS would be to not see the full picture. The 2ds competed with eth PSP and still hadily won. The 3DS competed with the vita and also won. but the full picture is that there was in increasing presence in mobile gaming on smartphones that had taken up most of that handheld market and still does till this day. Proof is in the sales difference between the 2DS and the 3DS. And nintendo had always been dominant in the handheld space. If nintendo made a dedicated handheld gaming console today, no matter how good it is.... it will sell less than the 3DS, and we have smartphones to thank for that.

(...)

I snipped your post because you seriously don't know much about Nintendo. You think the 2DS sold more than the 3DS. You are struggling with the basics, like I said.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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Nintendo has once again released an underpowered console. Their only hope is to reclaim the Wii casual fad or I think the console will end up performing worse than the WiiU in both software output and hardware sales. I don't think mobile handheld gaming will be enough to save Switch.



RolStoppable said:
Intrinsic said:

Ok... lets try this.....

I judge how many nintendo fans remain by referencing the wiiU. Yes thats tru, and I won't fault you for jumping at that cause i didnt take the time to elaborate. As far as nintendo goes, you have their home console and their handheld console divisions. Lets start with handhelds.

Its easy looking at the 3DS and say but it sold 60M. But to do that and not mention that in sold only half as much as the 2DS would be to not see the full picture. The 2ds competed with eth PSP and still hadily won. The 3DS competed with the vita and also won. but the full picture is that there was in increasing presence in mobile gaming on smartphones that had taken up most of that handheld market and still does till this day. Proof is in the sales difference between the 2DS and the 3DS. And nintendo had always been dominant in the handheld space. If nintendo made a dedicated handheld gaming console today, no matter how good it is.... it will sell less than the 3DS, and we have smartphones to thank for that.

(...)

I snipped your post because you seriously don't know much about Nintendo. You think the 2DS sold more than the 3DS. You are struggling with the basics, like I said.

oh pls that was a typo. Meant the nintendo DS

i will go and correct it in my original post..... so still think i don't know anyhing about nintendo?

hell, if you knew as much as you seem to suggest you do you would have known that was what i meant.

But you know what, Its clear you aren't even trying to have a discussion. To you everyone that doesn't agrree with you must be a ninty hater and wants them to fail. Thats why you dismiss all that anyone says that contradicts what you are saying. So lets leave it as is and i will resort to what i tell everyone else like you on this matter.

Just wait and see.



Intrinsic said:
RolStoppable said:

I snipped your post because you seriously don't know much about Nintendo. You think the 2DS sold more than the 3DS. You are struggling with the basics, like I said.

oh pls that was a typo. Meant the nintendo DS

i will go and correct it in my original post..... so still think i don't know anyhing about nintendo?

hell, if you knew as much as you seem to suggest you do you would have known that was what i meant.

Yes, I am still convinced that you don't know much about Nintendo. You argue that smartphones will make it increasingly harder for Nintendo to sell hardware, yet we already got the proof with Pokémon Go and rising 3DS sales that your assertion cannot be true. You also let Nintendo off the hook by pretending the 3DS on its own was perfectly executed, so all the damage that was done was caused by smartphones when really Nintendo themselves did most of the job.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

The 3DS is up a bit YoY, but I feel this "boost" is a bit overstated. It's not like it's magically now selling double what it was before Pokemon Go.

It's a decent 20% bump for a few months and not every mobile app is going to be like Pokemon GO, Mario Run isn't finding the same level of success.

There are always alternatives too, saying there's no alternative so Nintendo can charge what they want ... well people can choose not to buy the system or choose a cheaper 3DS or just keep using their phones/tablets for whatever free time they have on the road. At home many people have a PS4/XB.

Many people were given the option of a $250 3DS and they chose simply not to buy the device period.

I hope Switch does well but none of those points in the OP really dissuade some of the issues the system could face.

The pre-orders/first wave of systems will sell out for sure because there's an easy 2-3 million really hardcore Nintendo fans who also know Nintendo underships a lot, so those first batch of systems will go quick, but after that I dunno.

Also I would say as cool as Mario Kart, Splatoon, and a new 3D Mario are ... the Wii U had all three of these too, and they only got the system to 15 million. DS/Wii were driven in sales by new IP like Wii Sports and Brain Training, there was nothing like that before, is 1,2 Switch going to drive hardware sales like Wii Sports did? I have my doubts. 

They need to get the price down to appeal to the 3DS audience, $360 with a game is too expensive I don't think they can hold out long at that price for long, not even with the MK8 port and Splatoon 2. IMO pushing the system like a home console and trying to price this as a premium product is a mistake. 



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RolStoppable said:
Intrinsic said:

oh pls that was a typo. Meant the nintendo DS

i will go and correct it in my original post..... so still think i don't know anyhing about nintendo?

hell, if you knew as much as you seem to suggest you do you would have known that was what i meant.

Yes, I am still convinced that you don't know much about Nintendo. You argue that smartphones will make it increasingly harder for Nintendo to sell hardware, yet we already got the proof with Pokémon Go and rising 3DS sales that your assertion cannot be true. You also let Nintendo off the hook by pretending the 3DS on its own was perfectly executed, so all the damage that was done was caused by smartphones when really Nintendo themselves did most of the job.

Wait what? What has pokemon go proved? That people that own smartphones will download a game?

so wait.... you saying that smartphones have not so far been carnibalizing handheld sales?  And what rising 3DS sales? you talking abot the holiday season? 

You know what nvm..... I agree, I don't know anything about nintendo...... but there is no point dragging this on. I've said wht i think will happen. In time we will see if I am right or wrong.



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Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

If Rol (as he says over and over again) doesn't care about developer support (because they all make crappy games except Nintendo), really who even care what the system sells? Does it affect your enjoyment of games *that* much?

Like I'm not understanding the motivation to be so invested in sales if that's your POV. 

The system will sell enough for Nintendo to make a nice profit, what difference does it make in that scenario if its 40, 50, 60, 70 million etc. etc.

It's not like Nintendo is going to give you any of that money.



pcstation4 said:
Nintendo has once again released an underpowered console. Their only hope is to reclaim the Wii casual fad or I think the console will end up performing worse than the WiiU in both software output and hardware sales. I don't think mobile handheld gaming will be enough to save Switch.

I don't see why it's so hard for people to realize that the Switch will be getting every single console and handheld game. That means it's gonna get main series Zelda, Mario, Pokémon, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing, etc along with tons of Japanese third party support, the only software it will more than likely lose out on is western third party support (unless it sells like hot cakes, then it'll get either exclusive western third party to fit the hardware like the Wii did, or somewhat dumbed down triple A games).



Soundwave said:

If Rol (as he says over and over again) doesn't care about developer support (because they all make crappy games except Nintendo), really who even care what the system sells? Does it affect your enjoyment of games *that* much?

Like I'm not understanding the motivation to be so invested in sales if that's your POV. 

The system will sell enough for Nintendo to make a nice profit, what difference does it make in that scenario if its 40, 50, 60, 70 million etc. etc.

It's not like Nintendo is going to give you any of that money.

I didn't see him state that he doesn't care about developer support. Though you don't know about the last part, they may actually be employed by Nintendo, or may have stock in the company lol, ya never know (though I doubt it).