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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 84.59m by March 31st, Forecast for Next Fiscal Year is 25.5m

NS has done all of this with out a single price cut it could become the first platform to get 100m with out one.



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Well look at this. This thread was a most excellent read. I think I'll read it again, lol. Most epic data here, and the snapshotting of opinions, this thread is why forums are the way.



I don't need your console war.
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
You're power hungry, spinnin' stories, and bein' graphics whores.
I don't need your console war.

NO NO, NO NO NO.

ZenfoldorVGI said:

Well look at this. This thread was a most excellent read. I think I'll read it again, lol. Most epic data here, and the snapshotting of opinions, this thread is why forums are the way.

Long time no see! Good to know some old members are still hanging around.



Signature goes here!

As a point of comparison, I would like to put my current predictions out for the Switch. Hopefully, this will explain some of my rationale behind why beating the PS2 is quite likely:

Culminative FY Total % Change
FY 2020 84.59 28.82 +37%

FY 2021 (Pro)

110.6 26.00 -10%
FY 2022 133.6 23.00 -12%
FY 2023 151.6 18.00 -22%
FY 2024 (Q3 Replacement) 160.6 9.00 -50%
FY 2025+ 165.1 4.50 -50%

As is apparent from this graph, the Switch does not need to sell anywhere close to 30M this year to get past the finish line. In fact, simply meeting Nintendo's conservative expectations would be enough, reaching 110M by the end of this fiscal year. After this, the only obstacle that would remain would be maintaining sales for the next 2 years.

2022 should see only a minor dropoff, as the presence of large 1st party titles such as Pokemon and Splatoon should be enough to maintain interest in the platform, not to mention, demand for the Pro model will continue to be fulfilled going into next year, as the launch of the Pro, if it happens at the end of this fiscal quarter, will probably resemble the shortages that we have seen with the PS5 due to the semiconductor shortages, thereby prolonging the peak sales period for the Switch Pro.

A minor decline in sales in 2023 is also easily achievable, as Nintendo still has an entire arsenal of tricks up its sleeve such as price cuts, doorbuster holiday bundles, and even potentially game discounts, meaning that a figure of 18 million is not a hard task.

Therefore by 2024 by the time the Switch 2 comes out, even with some rather moderate figures provided for the next 2 years and 7.4 years before replacement (shorter than the Xbox 360 mind you), the prospect of the Switch passing the PS2 will have become inevitable, as even with Switch sales dropping off of a cliff following the release of its successor (50% drops per year is as conservative as it gets), the Switch still beats the PS2 by a margin of over 6 million, despite the fact that the numbers I have provided here are rather moderate all things considered. 

This prediction also allows for flexibility. For one, the Switch here can underperform my predictions by over 5 million and still end up on top. In addition, with the trajectory that the switch seems to be heading this year, it seems that 26 million in 2021 may turn out to be a rather conservative projection. If the Switch this year were to say 30 million per se, that's 4 million more units that would not have to be sold later down the line to still meet the target.

I hope it is clear by now that Switch's path to the all-time record is clear as day, and in fact, quite probable if even a moderate/ conservative projection for the next 2 Fiscal years can get us to 165 Million. To conclude, I would kindly urge many who currently hold reservations against the Switch to at the very least read the argument to get an idea of where such bullish predictions can come from. 

Last edited by CheddarPlease - on 07 May 2021

CheddarPlease said:

As a point of comparison, I would like to put my current predictions out for the Switch. Hopefully, this will explain some of my rationale behind why beating the PS2 is quite likely:

CulminativeFY Total% Change
FY 202084.5928.82+37%

FY 2021 (Pro)

110.626.00-10%
FY 2022133.623.00-12%
FY 2023151.618.00-22%
FY 2024 (Q3 Replacement)160.69.00-50%
FY 2025+165.14.50-50%

As is apparent from this graph, the Switch does not need to sell anywhere close to 30M this year to get past the finish line. In fact, simply meeting Nintendo's conservative expectations would be enough, reaching 110M by the end of this fiscal year. After this, the only obstacle that would remain would be maintaining sales for the next 2 years.

2022 should see only a minor dropoff, as the presence of large 1st party titles such as Pokemon and Splatoon should be enough to maintain interest in the platform, not to mention, demand for the Pro model will continue to be fulfilled going into next year, as the launch of the Pro, if it happens at the end of this fiscal quarter, will probably resemble the shortages that we have seen with the PS5 due to the semiconductor shortages, thereby prolonging the peak sales period for the Switch Pro.

A minor decline in sales in 2023 is also easily achievable, as Nintendo still has an entire arsenal of tricks up its sleeve such as price cuts, doorbuster holiday bundles, and even potentially game discounts, meaning that a figure of 18 million is not a hard task.

Therefore by 2024 by the time the Switch 2 comes out, even with some rather moderate figures provided for the next 2 years and 7.4 years before replacement (shorter than the Xbox 360 mind you), the prospect of the Switch passing the PS2 will have become inevitable, as even with Switch sales dropping off of a cliff following the release of its successor (50% drops per year is as conservative as it gets), the Switch still beats the PS2 by a margin of over 6 million, despite the fact that the numbers I have provided here are rather moderate all things considered. 

This prediction also allows for flexibility. For one, the Switch here can underperform my predictions by over 5 million and still end up on top. In addition, with the trajectory that the switch seems to be heading this year, it seems that 26 million in 2021 may turn out to be a rather conservative projection. If the Switch this year were to say 30 million per se, that's 4 million more units that would not have to be sold later down the line to still meet the target.

I hope it is clear by now that Switch's path to the all-time record is clear as day, and in fact, quite probable if even a moderate/ conservative projection for the next 2 Fiscal years can get us to 165 Million. To conclude, I would kindly urge many who currently hold reservations against the Switch to at the very least take a look at this argument to get an idea of where such bullish prediction can come from. 

The title of this thread is "Open Your Eyes" for good reason. People will see what they want to see, even if that means to put blinders on. This attitude doesn't go away easily, so despite the ever-increasing evidence that Switch won't have a short lifespan, there are still a lot of people who refuse to believe it that Switch could go six or more years before it gets replaced, because they have it in their heads that Nintendo consoles have short lifespans. Which in and of itself is already based on selective perception of data where the Wii U is considered the norm and mostly everything else is seen as an anomaly.

The approach to let people run the numbers themselves is promising at first glance, but more often than not they either refuse to provide a forecast for sales or hamfist the numbers to arrive at the desired conclusion. It was only about 15 months ago that someone left this site because he got mocked for his sub-100m lifetime prediction made in early 2020. What I am trying to say is that even the best arguments in the world can and will fall on deaf ears.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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TruckOSaurus said:
ZenfoldorVGI said:

Well look at this. This thread was a most excellent read. I think I'll read it again, lol. Most epic data here, and the snapshotting of opinions, this thread is why forums are the way.

Long time no see! Good to know some old members are still hanging around.

Thanks! This thread is...pretty awesome actually. I'm always trying to post more.

I actually kinda abandoned the site during the Wii-U years and I've always regretted that. Mostly I see VGChartz data has become a lot more accepted across the entire community since the old days, but of course there is still the random person behind on their talking points, but overall imho the site is really now much less refuted across the spectrum.

I love a thread like this, because it captures the minds and attitudes in gaming at the time these snapshots were created. I can read something I wrote years ago and completely disagree with it now. It would be very easy to forget the Switch wasn't always predicted to be a huge sales success, and just looking at how passionately we might have expected it to flop, over time, it's a trip.



I don't need your console war.
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
You're power hungry, spinnin' stories, and bein' graphics whores.
I don't need your console war.

NO NO, NO NO NO.

I don't know if anyone really cares, but I'm going to go ahead and give some context to Nintendo Life Spans starting at the Nintendo Entertainment System.

NES SNES N64 Gamecube Wii Wii U Switch
Japan Release Date July 15, 1983 November 21, 1990 June 23, 1996 September 14, 2001 December 2, 2006 December 8, 2012 March 3, 2017
North America Release Date October 18, 1985 August 23, 1991 September 29, 1996 November 18, 2001 November 19, 2006 November 18, 2012 March 3, 2017
European Release Date September 1, 1986 April 11, 1992 (UK and IRL) March 1, 1997  May 3, 2002 December 8, 2006 November 30, 2012 March 3, 2017
Japanese Replacement Time 7 years, 4 months (2686 days) 5 Years, 7 Months (2041 Days) 5 Years, 2 Months (1909 Days) 5 Years, 2 Months (1905) 6 Years (2198 Days) 4 Years, 2 Months (1546 Days)
North American Replacement Time 5 Years, 10 Months (2135 Days) 5 Years, 1 Month (1864 Days) 5 Years, 1 Month (1876 Days) 5 Years (1827 Days) 6 Years (2203 Days) 4 Years, 3 Months (1554 Days)
European Replacement Time 5 Years, 7 Months (2049 Days) 4 Years 10 Months (1785 Days) 5 Years, 2 Months (1889 Days) 4 Years, 7 Months (1680 Days) 5 Years, 11 Months (2184 Days) 4 Years 3 Months (1554 Days)

A. Europe consistently had the shortest life cycle, though this is due to later releases that slowly got closer to the actual launch of the console

B. The time window to most often appear was 5-6 Years, with the Wii U being the only exception

C. The Wii, Nintendo's most highest selling home console had the longest lifespan, that is if we ignore the NES's long lifespan in Japan

D. The average number in days is about 2047, note I just did the 1983 launch to the Switch Launch and divided by 6 for 6 full lifecycles

Now I will do the Handhelds (I think I will count Gameboy Color as an upgrade just to make the numbers more even all around, and it does strike me as a large enough upgrade to get it's own generational leap for release date)

Gameboy Gameboy Color Gameboy Advance DS 3DS Switch
Japan Release Date

April 21, 1989

October 21, 1998 March 21, 2001

December 2, 2004

February 26, 2011

March 3, 2017
North America Release Date

July 31, 1989

November 18, 1998

June 11, 2001

November 21, 2004

March 27, 2011 March 3, 2017
European Release Date

September 28, 1990

November 23, 1998

June 22, 2001

March 11, 2005 March 25, 2011 March 3, 2017
Japanese Replacement Time 9 years, 6 months (3470 Days) 2 Years 5 Months (882) 3 Years, 8 months (1352) 6 years, 2 months (2277) 6 Years (2197 Days)
North American Replacement Time 9 Years 3 Months (3397) 2 Years, 6 months (936) 3 Years, 5 Months (1259) 6 Years, 4 Months (2317) 5 Years, 11 months (2168)
European Replacement Time 8 years, 1 month (2978) 2 years, 6 months (942) 3 Years, 8 months (1358) 6 Years (2205) 5 Years, 11 months (2170)

I have now gotten lazy, and my computer is acting up, so I will come back to this at sometime in the future to finish it

EDIT: Computer fixed and the chart is finished, its uneven just as I expected, honestly I thought the GBC came out a years or two before it actually did. Lets look at some trends

A. Only the GBC and GBA featured extraordinarily short lifecycles

B. The Gameboy to the surprise of nobody is the longest spanning handheld console

C. After the GBA it appears lifecycles have become a standard six years, though this is only accounting for the two most recent handhelds.

D. Recently handhelds have started to last for longer than their home console counterparts.

My takeaway: Switch will probably not be replaced till 2023, but no later than Holiday 2025

Last edited by badskywalker - on 17 May 2021

Thank you for doing all that.  It is very helpful.  I’ve come back to look at this a few times.



Personally, I can see Switch being on track to sell more than 140 million, but I don’t see 150 million being guaranteed.
I can see it falling just short of the DS on 154 million if they’re still shipping units during FY 2025, but I haven’t seen anything that convinces me it’s going to outsell the DS by selling over 154.9 million.

For instance, I’m expecting slightly worse sales for FY 2021 and FY 2022, then expecting FY 2023 to be lower than FY 2018 sales.  I can’t see Switch still being a hot item during FY 2023, but it can definitely still outsell the Wii U lifetime sales during that year.