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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 84.59m by March 31st, Forecast for Next Fiscal Year is 25.5m

yo33331 said:
zorg1000 said:

This analysis makes absolutely no sense.

FY21-30 million (LTD-113 million)

FY22-30 million (LTD-143 million)

FY23-10 million (LTD-153 million)

FY24-2 million (LTD-155 million)

No console in the history of ever has had such a drastic drop off in sales from its peak.

Look at DS which had double 30 million years.

FY08-30.31 million

FY09-31.18 million

FY10-27.11 million

FY11-17.52 million

Or Wii which is known for having a quick drop from its peak.

FY09-25.95 million

FY10-20.54 million

FY11-15.08 million

FY12-9.84 million

Or look at PS4s steady drop from its peak

FY16-20.0 million

FY17-19.0 million

FY18-17.8 million

FY19-13.6 million

There is a high chance that Switch does not reach DS or PS2 sales but it absolutely does not need to sell 30 million in each of the next 2 years to reach it.

FY21-27 million (LTD-110 million)

FY22-21 million (LTD-131 million)

FY23-15 million (LTD-146 million)

FY24-8 million (LTD-154 million)

FY25-3 million (LTD-157 million)

FY26-1 million (LTD-158 million)

Here is a potential trajectory that is far more likely than going from 30 million in a year to 10 million the next.

Okay.

Why even respond if that's all you're going to say?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
yo33331 said:

Okay.

Why even respond if that's all you're going to say?

The response shows that he isn't scared of you. If he had said nothing, you'd have believed that you owned him.

But with this, you now believe that you aren't worth it to be taken seriously.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
zorg1000 said:

Why even respond if that's all you're going to say?

The response shows that he isn't scared of you. If he had said nothing, you'd have believed that you owned him.

But with this, you now believe that you aren't worth it to be taken seriously.

ha ha, I don't know if this is irony or not, but I liked it



RolStoppable said:
zorg1000 said:

Why even respond if that's all you're going to say?

The response shows that he isn't scared of you. If he had said nothing, you'd have believed that you owned him.

But with this, you now believe that you aren't worth it to be taken seriously.

That bastard!



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Ryng said:
Torpoleon said:

How much do you think they will sell in Q1?

Japan alone i expect a bit less than 2 million units.

America is harder to predict but i would expect the same amount, and EU+RW should be higher than that.

Shipments i think will be higher than 5 million

I suppose it is certainly possible for the Switch to reach shipments close to or over 5 million this quarter, but I just can't help but feel that it will miss that mark. Maybe 4 million is how much it can sell in the first quarter. I do hope for over 5, but I also thought 80m by the end of the year was a sure-fire thing and they just narrowly missed that mark.

The Switch is getting big exclusives like 3D World & Monster Hunter this quarter, as well as new hardware designs based on those games, so it's a possibility.



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zorg1000 said:
yo33331 said:

Okay.

Why even respond if that's all you're going to say?

He's agreeing that you were right, and he was wrong.



Based on the Hardware Sales Data from Nintendo's Shipments, we have the following figures with the 3 quarter numbers in parentheses, and the percentage of that 3 quarter number towards the final yearly total being underlined:

FY 03/18 - 15.05 million units (12.12); 80.53156146%
FY 03/19 - 16.95 million units (14.48); 85.42772861%
FY 03/20 - 21.03 million units (17.75); 84.40323348%

So we're basically in a range between 80.5-85.4%.

If we applied each of those percentages to this Fiscal Year, with the number currently at 24.10 million units, then these would be the 3 projected final totals, with the projected Q4 sales in parentheses.

~80.5% - 29.93 million units (5.83)
~85.4% - 28.21 million units (4.11)
~84.4% - 28.55 million units (4.45)

So, we'd be looking at a final total somewhere between the range of 28.21 - 29.93 million units for the Fiscal Year.

This would place it just short of that coveted 30 million mark that, to my knowledge, only the DS has been able to crack. But there's one thing that makes me doubt these numbers and makes me think the range will be higher. Two of the three projected figures listed here would mean that the Q4 shipments would be lower than the Q1 shipments, which have not been the case up to this point. And the one projected figure where the Q4 shipment would be higher is so miniscule that it would essentially be flat.

Q4 shipments for each of the Switch's Fiscal Years have been consistently higher than Q1 shipments and I don't see how this Fiscal Year will be any different, especially when this quarter is loaded with software from Bowser's Fury to Bravely Default 2 to Persona 5 Strikers in the U.S., all capped off with Monster Hunter Rise to close out that quarter in late March.

It could go either way, but I'm leaning more towards pro-30 million, than anti-30 million.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 09 February 2021

PAOerfulone said:

Based on the Hardware Sales Data from Nintendo's Shipments, we have the following figures with the 3 quarter numbers in parentheses, and the percentage of that 3 quarter number towards the final yearly total being underlined:

FY 03/18 - 15.05 million units (12.12); 80.53156146%
FY 03/19 - 16.95 million units (14.48); 85.42772861%
FY 03/20 - 21.03 million units (17.75); 84.40323348%

So we're basically in a range between 80.5-85.4%.

If we applied each of those percentages to this Fiscal Year, with the number currently at 24.10 million units, then these would be the 3 projected final totals, with the projected Q4 sales in parentheses.

~80.5% - 29.93 million units (5.83)
~85.4% - 28.21 million units (4.11)
~84.4% - 28.55 million units (4.45)

So, we'd be looking at a final total somewhere between the range of 28.21 - 29.93 million units for the Fiscal Year.

This would place it just short of that coveted 30 million mark that, to my knowledge, only the DS has been able to crack. But there's one thing that makes me doubt these numbers and makes me think the range will be higher. Two of the three projected figures listed here would mean that the Q4 shipments would be lower than the Q1 shipments, which have not been the case up to this point. And the one projected figure where the Q4 shipment would be higher is so miniscule that it would essentially be flat.

Q4 shipments for each of the Switch's Fiscal Years have been consistently higher than Q1 shipments and I don't see how this Fiscal Year will be any different, especially when this quarter is loaded with software from Bowser's Fury to Bravely Default 2 to Persona 5 Strikers in the U.S., all capped off with Monster Hunter Rise to close out that quarter in late March.

It could go either way, but I'm leaning more towards pro-30 million, than anti-30 million.

There are other possibilities.

They project 26.5m, usually too low so we can give it leeway of 1m so 27.5m. It could be that sell- through isn't too close to shipments either.



PAOerfulone said:

Based on the Hardware Sales Data from Nintendo's Shipments, we have the following figures with the 3 quarter numbers in parentheses, and the percentage of that 3 quarter number towards the final yearly total being underlined:

FY 03/18 - 15.05 million units (12.12); 80.53156146%
FY 03/19 - 16.95 million units (14.48); 85.42772861%
FY 03/20 - 21.03 million units (17.75); 84.40323348%

So we're basically in a range between 80.5-85.4%.

If we applied each of those percentages to this Fiscal Year, with the number currently at 24.10 million units, then these would be the 3 projected final totals, with the projected Q4 sales in parentheses.

~80.5% - 29.93 million units (5.83)
~85.4% - 28.21 million units (4.11)
~84.4% - 28.55 million units (4.45)

So, we'd be looking at a final total somewhere between the range of 28.21 - 29.93 million units for the Fiscal Year.

This would place it just short of that coveted 30 million mark that, to my knowledge, only the DS has been able to crack. But there's one thing that makes me doubt these numbers and makes me think the range will be higher. Two of the three projected figures listed here would mean that the Q4 shipments would be lower than the Q1 shipments, which have not been the case up to this point. And the one projected figure where the Q4 shipment would be higher is so miniscule that it would essentially be flat.

Q4 shipments for each of the Switch's Fiscal Years have been consistently higher than Q1 shipments and I don't see how this Fiscal Year will be any different, especially when this quarter is loaded with software from Bowser's Fury to Bravely Default 2 to Persona 5 Strikers in the U.S., all capped off with Monster Hunter Rise to close out that quarter in late March.

It could go either way, but I'm leaning more towards pro-30 million, than anti-30 million.

Fiscal Q1 has always been low due to the lack of big Nintendo software (i.e. a demand problem). The only exception is 2017 with Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, but that was shortly after launch when Nintendo had to ramp up production (a production problem). The most recent Q1 was coming off the launch of Animal Crossing (March 20th, so a lot of the hardware boost spilled over into the following quarter) and amplified by COVID lockdowns which had depleted stock in March already. The surrounding circumstances for this particular Q1 were highly beneficial, so basing expectations for this current Q4 on historical Q1 vs. Q4 comparisons is more than a bit misguided.

The holiday quarter (Q3) has retailers commonly loading up on stock which results in a surplus by the end of Q3; subsequently, this can lead to a Q4 where sell-through outpaces shipments. This fiscal year the hybrid SKU does not look to have been overshipped, however, the Lite looks to be following this pattern that we've seen before. Expecting 5.9m+ for this Q4 is more than highly optimistic. A range of 4.0-5.0m is more realistic; this necessitates that Monster Hunter World is able to move hardware on a global level, but the odds for that are reasonably good.

In any case, the typical problem with Q4 is overshipping that occured in the quarter before, so sell-through numbers during Q4 don't translate directly to shipment numbers. That's why I advise caution in the coming two months, for those who bank on sell-through to be equal or lower to the shipment number that will be announced eventually. What's certain is that Nintendo will exceed their forecast, but that one is so low that it doesn't tell us anything.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

I made some notes about Switch rising up the ranks on the platform totals chart on vgchartz.
As of February 13th.

Switch recently outsold GBA (16.96) then SNES (17.17) in Japan.
Switch recently outsold PS1 (9.04), Xbox 360 (9.16), and Wii (9.48) in rest of world.
Switch recently outsold 3DS (75.92) globally.

Switch needs 100,000 sales to outsell PS3 in North America [Achieved on vgchartz as of 20th February, 2021].


Switch needs 420,000 sales to outsell 3DS in Europe.
Switch needs 660,000 sales to outsell GBA in Europe.

Switch needs 1.08 million sales to outsell NES in Japan.

Switch needs 2.46 million sales to outsell PSP globally.
Switch needs 2.88 million sales to outsell GBA globally.

I made some other notes about consoles Switch is likely to overtake during the next year or so,
but for now I’ll stick to what’s happened in the past few months and what will happen during the next few months.

Last edited by ireadtabloids - on 21 February 2021