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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 84.59m by March 31st, Forecast for Next Fiscal Year is 25.5m

yo33331 said:

I am quoting my post from the another topic here on the PS2 vs switch battle ..
Only cuz switch is now in its prime didn't means it will reach PS2.

Many have tried, many fallen, only because of 1 very good year - almost 30M, it doesn't mean switch will be the best selling console..

1 year doesn't make everything. Switch will need at least 2 more years with sales around 30M, to be really closing on the PS2.

It is too far now. And I mean this as a requerment.. if switch don't reach 30M this year, and the year after this (2022) it's preety much sure switch won't reach PS2 or even DS.

Successor is coming in 2023/2024 that is 100% whatever the sales are, so anything below close to 30M in this and the next year is not enough for the switch to reach those PS2 numbers.

And even with 30M this and the next year, switch will still have to sell another 20M after this for it to reach PS2 .. and we all know how the last few generations of consoles (every manufacturer not only nintendo) went when their successor is launched .. making 10M at best after the next console is launched..

So while it can reach very good respectable numbers lifetime in the form of 120-130-140M, I don't see nintendo switch coming to 150 or even 160M lifetime.

All your calculations rely on the Switch successor launching in 2023 despite you saying 2024 at one point. I have no idea why you think that the successor will launch so soon.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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So I managed to find my post from March 2017. Pretty decent guess at 100m although I clearly over-estimated the handheld & underestimated the hybrid :p


https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/227213/nintendo-switch-selling-life-time-poll/2/#10

"I think 100m, 80m minimum.

This is assuming that there is a Switch pocket released at the arrival of the first Switch exclusive pokemon game.

The platform in its current form has infinitely more appeal amongst people that I know over the Wii U. No one I know owns a Wii U (I live in the UK) but a handful have a 3DS, the Switch right now has more demand in my friends group than either of those systems. In terms of software its already kicking both Wii U and 3DS' first year lineup wise and I don't expect that to stop any time soon. I think it will have a better chance at securing adult gamers than the 3DS did... at the same time I also heard one parent refer to it as the "Wii 2" to their child :p

I could see the system in its current form selling 50m but I think the completely portable $199 revision that will arrive sometime down the road could double that number. The amount of double dipping will be huge (especially in Japan)"



In August 2018, I predicted 90m for Switch (link) and added that my prediction could easily be too low if Switch got revisions counted together with the original (link). I actually think this prediction originates from late 2017 but I've now searched for the original post for 15 minutes and can't find it.

Anyway, I was wrong. Even without revisions, Switch will easily surpass 90m and I agree with those saying that NDS and PS2 are its next targets.



Ryng said:
Torpoleon said:

Breakdown of how I picture Switch sales by quarter this year:

Q1: 3 million

Q2: 3.5 million

Q3: 4 million (Switch revision/price cut/BOTW 2)

Q4: 12 million (DP remakes)

i think 3 million this quarter will be beated by a huge margin, like... actually few millions. but let's see.

How much do you think they will sell in Q1?



Torpoleon said:

Kind of wish Switch reached 80m in 2020, but at least it was very close.

In 2021, I could see Switch ending with over 100 million in sales, or at least close to it and then passing it in Q1 2022. This is a breakdown of all the sales goals I hope Switch achieves in 2021 and the quarter I hope to see it, as well as the percent chance I give of it happening in that quarter:

1. Surpass GBA- Q1 (100%)
2. Surpass PSP- Q1 (100%)
3. Surpass 360- Q2 (99%), Q3 (100%)
4. Surpass PS3- Q3 (99%), Q4 (100%)
5. Reach 100 Million- Q4 (95%), Q1 2022 (100%)
6. Surpass Wii- Q4 (90%), Q1 2022 (100%)
7. Surpass PS1 - Q4 (85%), Q1 2022 (100%)

Ultimately, I'd like for Switch to end the year around 103 million. A total of about 23 million in 2021, a slight drop off from 2020, but still understandable. I do see us getting a better lineup, as well as price cuts and revisions, which is why the drop isn't as bad as one would think. I could see it being 21 or 22 million though, but I don't see it being less than 2019. And then next year we can look at Switch surpassing GB & PS4 (the latter will probably surpass the former by a little bit by then).

Breakdown of how I picture Switch sales by quarter this year:

Q1: 3 million

Q2: 3.5 million

Q3: 4 million (Switch revision/price cut/BOTW 2)

Q4: 12 million (DP remakes)

If Switch could have a great holiday with no big titles, surely it can do slightly better with big titles, price cut and revisions. This kind of mirrors 2019, in terms of what was released.

I'm assuming the quarters are based off of the calendar year and not the fiscal year. Cause if it were the fiscal year quarters Q3 should be the holiday quarter where majority of the sales occur.



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@javi741 Yep, these are based on the calendar year for 2021.



Good job Rol, like I personally get being pessimistic at the start, but after certain point people still being that pessimistic is questionable. Oh well doubt we will hear from a lot of them.



 

Torpoleon said:
Ryng said:

i think 3 million this quarter will be beated by a huge margin, like... actually few millions. but let's see.

How much do you think they will sell in Q1?

Japan alone i expect a bit less than 2 million units.

America is harder to predict but i would expect the same amount, and EU+RW should be higher than that.

Shipments i think will be higher than 5 million



yo33331 said:

I am quoting my post from the another topic here on the PS2 vs switch battle ..
Only cuz switch is now in its prime didn't means it will reach PS2.

Many have tried, many fallen, only because of 1 very good year - almost 30M, it doesn't mean switch will be the best selling console..

1 year doesn't make everything. Switch will need at least 2 more years with sales around 30M, to be really closing on the PS2.

It is too far now. And I mean this as a requerment.. if switch don't reach 30M this year, and the year after this (2022) it's preety much sure switch won't reach PS2 or even DS.

Successor is coming in 2023/2024 that is 100% whatever the sales are, so anything below close to 30M in this and the next year is not enough for the switch to reach those PS2 numbers.

And even with 30M this and the next year, switch will still have to sell another 20M after this for it to reach PS2 .. and we all know how the last few generations of consoles (every manufacturer not only nintendo) went when their successor is launched .. making 10M at best after the next console is launched..

So while it can reach very good respectable numbers lifetime in the form of 120-130-140M, I don't see nintendo switch coming to 150 or even 160M lifetime.

This analysis makes absolutely no sense.

FY21-30 million (LTD-113 million)

FY22-30 million (LTD-143 million)

FY23-10 million (LTD-153 million)

FY24-2 million (LTD-155 million)

No console in the history of ever has had such a drastic drop off in sales from its peak.

Look at DS which had double 30 million years.

FY08-30.31 million

FY09-31.18 million

FY10-27.11 million

FY11-17.52 million

Or Wii which is known for having a quick drop from its peak.

FY09-25.95 million

FY10-20.54 million

FY11-15.08 million

FY12-9.84 million

Or look at PS4s steady drop from its peak

FY16-20.0 million

FY17-19.0 million

FY18-17.8 million

FY19-13.6 million

There is a high chance that Switch does not reach DS or PS2 sales but it absolutely does not need to sell 30 million in each of the next 2 years to reach it.

FY21-27 million (LTD-110 million)

FY22-21 million (LTD-131 million)

FY23-15 million (LTD-146 million)

FY24-8 million (LTD-154 million)

FY25-3 million (LTD-157 million)

FY26-1 million (LTD-158 million)

Here is a potential trajectory that is far more likely than going from 30 million in a year to 10 million the next.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
yo33331 said:

I am quoting my post from the another topic here on the PS2 vs switch battle ..
Only cuz switch is now in its prime didn't means it will reach PS2.

Many have tried, many fallen, only because of 1 very good year - almost 30M, it doesn't mean switch will be the best selling console..

1 year doesn't make everything. Switch will need at least 2 more years with sales around 30M, to be really closing on the PS2.

It is too far now. And I mean this as a requerment.. if switch don't reach 30M this year, and the year after this (2022) it's preety much sure switch won't reach PS2 or even DS.

Successor is coming in 2023/2024 that is 100% whatever the sales are, so anything below close to 30M in this and the next year is not enough for the switch to reach those PS2 numbers.

And even with 30M this and the next year, switch will still have to sell another 20M after this for it to reach PS2 .. and we all know how the last few generations of consoles (every manufacturer not only nintendo) went when their successor is launched .. making 10M at best after the next console is launched..

So while it can reach very good respectable numbers lifetime in the form of 120-130-140M, I don't see nintendo switch coming to 150 or even 160M lifetime.

This analysis makes absolutely no sense.

FY21-30 million (LTD-113 million)

FY22-30 million (LTD-143 million)

FY23-10 million (LTD-153 million)

FY24-2 million (LTD-155 million)

No console in the history of ever has had such a drastic drop off in sales from its peak.

Look at DS which had double 30 million years.

FY08-30.31 million

FY09-31.18 million

FY10-27.11 million

FY11-17.52 million

Or Wii which is known for having a quick drop from its peak.

FY09-25.95 million

FY10-20.54 million

FY11-15.08 million

FY12-9.84 million

Or look at PS4s steady drop from its peak

FY16-20.0 million

FY17-19.0 million

FY18-17.8 million

FY19-13.6 million

There is a high chance that Switch does not reach DS or PS2 sales but it absolutely does not need to sell 30 million in each of the next 2 years to reach it.

FY21-27 million (LTD-110 million)

FY22-21 million (LTD-131 million)

FY23-15 million (LTD-146 million)

FY24-8 million (LTD-154 million)

FY25-3 million (LTD-157 million)

FY26-1 million (LTD-158 million)

Here is a potential trajectory that is far more likely than going from 30 million in a year to 10 million the next.

Okay.