I am quoting my post from the another topic here on the PS2 vs switch battle ..
Only cuz switch is now in its prime didn't means it will reach PS2.
Many have tried, many fallen, only because of 1 very good year - almost 30M, it doesn't mean switch will be the best selling console..
1 year doesn't make everything. Switch will need at least 2 more years with sales around 30M, to be really closing on the PS2.
It is too far now. And I mean this as a requerment.. if switch don't reach 30M this year, and the year after this (2022) it's preety much sure switch won't reach PS2 or even DS.
Successor is coming in 2023/2024 that is 100% whatever the sales are, so anything below close to 30M in this and the next year is not enough for the switch to reach those PS2 numbers.
And even with 30M this and the next year, switch will still have to sell another 20M after this for it to reach PS2 .. and we all know how the last few generations of consoles (every manufacturer not only nintendo) went when their successor is launched .. making 10M at best after the next console is launched..
So while it can reach very good respectable numbers lifetime in the form of 120-130-140M, I don't see nintendo switch coming to 150 or even 160M lifetime.
This analysis makes absolutely no sense.
FY21-30 million (LTD-113 million)
FY22-30 million (LTD-143 million)
FY23-10 million (LTD-153 million)
FY24-2 million (LTD-155 million)
No console in the history of ever has had such a drastic drop off in sales from its peak.
Look at DS which had double 30 million years.
Or Wii which is known for having a quick drop from its peak.
Or look at PS4s steady drop from its peak
There is a high chance that Switch does not reach DS or PS2 sales but it absolutely does not need to sell 30 million in each of the next 2 years to reach it.
FY21-27 million (LTD-110 million)
FY22-21 million (LTD-131 million)
FY23-15 million (LTD-146 million)
FY24-8 million (LTD-154 million)
FY25-3 million (LTD-157 million)
FY26-1 million (LTD-158 million)
Here is a potential trajectory that is far more likely than going from 30 million in a year to 10 million the next.