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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 84.59m by March 31st, Forecast for Next Fiscal Year is 25.5m

As I said elsewhere on the updated numbers.

"Going by current momentum even if the year is not as high as last year we could actually see the NS pass the Wii and PS1, 80m shipment to start the year would mean FY2020 could end at around 84m despite being a more quiet period the quarter ends with the release of MHR and has SM3DW on route to that both should lift momentum but the former will push performance in Japan. The performance of the first two quarters of the next FY under this would see the NS above 90 before the holiday period arrives, Q1 and Q2 last year (current FY) saw around 6m and 7m if we rounded that down due to the years monstrous performance to be conservative lets say 4m and 5m for the new FY's first two quarter that would still put the NS at 93m going into the holiday period.

Nintendo tends to average 10m during the holiday period and as seen with this past holiday period they still hit 11m with no huge release while new platforms were being launched, 10m again this holidays would be 103m surpassing both the Wii and PS1 while moving it into the top five selling platforms of all time."



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UPDATE: February 1st, 2021

Switch family - 79.87m (+11.58m this quarter)
-Switch - 66.35m (+8.42m)
-Switch Lite - 13.52m (+3.16m)

This constitutes the third-highest quarter for a video game console ever, only slightly behind the DS which occupies both rank 1 and 2. It brings the running total for the fiscal year to 24.10m, so Nintendo had to revise their forecast up again, now to 26.50m. Likewise, the previous software forecast was met with one quarter left to go (176.10m shipped by December 31st), so the new forecast is 205m.

With the 3DS officially in the rearview, the GBA (81.51m) as well as Sony's PSP (estimated to have sold slightly above 82m) are about to be passed during the following quarter.

IMPORTANT: The Google spreadsheet with compiled hardware and software shipments has found a new, more detailed, home at this link.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

3rd biggest videogame system shipment in a quarter after the DS?
Wow, that’s amazing!

Interestingly, Nintendo only estimated their sell-through for end of December as being over 74 million.
I find it interesting that their estimated sell-through is below 75 million. None of us would have expected so low, but I’m sure they’ll close that gap between sell-through and shipments quickly enough when they want to. Better this than another Switch shortage. That’s for sure.



Kind of wish Switch reached 80m in 2020, but at least it was very close.

In 2021, I could see Switch ending with over 100 million in sales, or at least close to it and then passing it in Q1 2022. This is a breakdown of all the sales goals I hope Switch achieves in 2021 and the quarter I hope to see it, as well as the percent chance I give of it happening in that quarter:

1. Surpass GBA- Q1 (100%)
2. Surpass PSP- Q1 (100%)
3. Surpass 360- Q2 (99%), Q3 (100%)
4. Surpass PS3- Q3 (99%), Q4 (100%)
5. Reach 100 Million- Q4 (95%), Q1 2022 (100%)
6. Surpass Wii- Q4 (90%), Q1 2022 (100%)
7. Surpass PS1 - Q4 (85%), Q1 2022 (100%)

Ultimately, I'd like for Switch to end the year around 103 million. A total of about 23 million in 2021, a slight drop off from 2020, but still understandable. I do see us getting a better lineup, as well as price cuts and revisions, which is why the drop isn't as bad as one would think. I could see it being 21 or 22 million though, but I don't see it being less than 2019. And then next year we can look at Switch surpassing GB & PS4 (the latter will probably surpass the former by a little bit by then).

Breakdown of how I picture Switch sales by quarter this year:

Q1: 3 million

Q2: 3.5 million

Q3: 4 million (Switch revision/price cut/BOTW 2)

Q4: 12 million (DP remakes)

If Switch could have a great holiday with no big titles, surely it can do slightly better with big titles, price cut and revisions. This kind of mirrors 2019, in terms of what was released.

Last edited by Torpoleon - on 02 February 2021

PS1 is surely what you meant to type. I think we can be in agreement that PS2 is out of reach.



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ireadtabloids said:

PS1 is surely what you meant to type. I think we can be in agreement that PS2 is out of reach.

Switch will pass PS1 by the end of this year under current momentum it's at 80m so yeah he probably meant that.

Last edited by Wyrdness - on 02 February 2021

Torpoleon said:

1. Surpass GBA- Q1 (100%)
2. Surpass PSP- Q1 (100%)
3. Surpass 360- Q2 (99%), Q3 (100%)
4. Surpass PS3- Q3 (99%), Q4 (100%)
5. Reach 100 Million- Q4 (95%), Q1 2022 (100%)
6. Surpass Wii- Q4 (90%), Q1 2022 (100%)
7. Surpass PS2 - Q4 (85%), Q1 2022 (100%)

Not saying Switch won't end up selling more than PS2 but bold is surely a typo.



@ireadtabloids @Wyrdness @Replicant Yep, I meant PS1. My bad! Surpassing the PS2 does seem nearly impossible. Not entirely out of the question just yet, but definitely too early to tell.

I'm hopeful that it does surpass the PS2 one day though. It really depends on what Nintendo has up their sleeves going forward.



I am quoting my post from the another topic here on the PS2 vs switch battle ..
Only cuz switch is now in its prime didn't means it will reach PS2.

Many have tried, many fallen, only because of 1 very good year - almost 30M, it doesn't mean switch will be the best selling console..

1 year doesn't make everything. Switch will need at least 2 more years with sales around 30M, to be really closing on the PS2.

It is too far now. And I mean this as a requerment.. if switch don't reach 30M this year, and the year after this (2022) it's preety much sure switch won't reach PS2 or even DS.

Successor is coming in 2023/2024 that is 100% whatever the sales are, so anything below close to 30M in this and the next year is not enough for the switch to reach those PS2 numbers.

And even with 30M this and the next year, switch will still have to sell another 20M after this for it to reach PS2 .. and we all know how the last few generations of consoles (every manufacturer not only nintendo) went when their successor is launched .. making 10M at best after the next console is launched..

So while it can reach very good respectable numbers lifetime in the form of 120-130-140M, I don't see nintendo switch coming to 150 or even 160M lifetime.



Torpoleon said:

Breakdown of how I picture Switch sales by quarter this year:

Q1: 3 million

Q2: 3.5 million

Q3: 4 million (Switch revision/price cut/BOTW 2)

Q4: 12 million (DP remakes)

i think 3 million this quarter will be beated by a huge margin, like... actually few millions. but let's see.