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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 84.59m by March 31st, Forecast for Next Fiscal Year is 25.5m

Volterra_90 said:
JRPGfan said:

Im not as optimistic.... neogaf and here, seems to have alot that arnt that intrested.

On youtube too, and the main thing against it is the price. Unless nintendo drastically lowers prices (starting this first year) I highly doubt it ll do that much lifetime.

No worries about price. I mean, if Switch sells good at 330€ Nintendo won't lower the price, obviously. If that's not the case, they really have room to lower it. No need to rush. 

Install base is the reason to rush, good first year sales, leads to 3rd party support, which leads to more games, which again leads to more sales.

299$ is going to slow down how fast the switch sells. I think Nintendo are milking its die hard fans, and 3-4 months from its launch, they ll give it a 100$ price drop so sales can pick up.



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RolStoppable said:
vivster said:

Isn't it sad that despite all the arguments you listed, the Switch will still fail? At least that's what my feeling is telling me.

Also you forgot to post your own prediction. It's easy to tell everyone they're wrong if you don't have an argument yourself you have to defend.

Right, I didn't post a prediction in this thread. But this thread isn't about posting predictions, it's about how you form a proper prediction.

Regardless, my prediction is that Switch will sell more units than 3DS and Wii U combined. Here are some of the reasons:

1. Switch does not commit hardware blunders like the 3DS and Wii U. The market didn't like 3D. There was no reason to believe that the second coming of the GameCube would suddenly be successful instead of a failure. The Gamepad is the logical evolution of the GC-GBA connectivity that used a second screen to provide additional information or asymmetrical multiplayer; ideas of such GameCube ideas were implemented in the Wii U launch title Nintendo Land. The Wii U was built around failed ideas.

On the other hand, Switch is not tethered to the TV. People like portability. The kids who have been growing up in the last ~10 years do not see the TV as the central piece of entertainment like older generations do. The idea that a game console is limited to the TV will eventually be archaic. Other Switch hardware features revolve around the Joy-cons. People like multiplayer, so being able to use a console for that right out of the box is a plus. Motion controllers were a hit in the past. Their demise was that Nintendo changed to a controller that doesn't provide proper motion controls (the Gamepad). Nevermind that motion controls are only an optional part of the system, so there's no reason why anyone should be offended by them.

2. Switch's software pipeline is going to be in good shape, because it's the device where all Nintendo games will go. Droughts like on the Wii U aren't going to happen. Switch is also going to be off to a great start as far as big software is concerned which makes price the only real hurdle that needs to be overcome.

3. Switch is made by a humbled Nintendo that is going to take sales data into account, so the games they make will be more in line with what the market wants, unlike on the 3DS and Wii U where it was all too often about being creative and doing whatever the developers want. Cases in point: The new Zelda doesn't follow Skyward Sword's footsteps, the new 3D Mario does not aim to replace 2D Mario. I don't expect every game to be shaped like this, but there will be more caution on Nintendo's part when it comes to their flagship games.

4. Switch's positioning in the market is unique, meaning that there is no substitute for it. That's how and why Nintendo will be able to get away with the prices they charge. If there's no comparable competition, companies can charge a premium and still sell a lot of units. Switch's nature also makes it highly unlikely that Sony or Microsoft even dare to challenge Nintendo. The Wii, which also had unique positioning, could be addressed by releasing peripherals for PS3 and 360. That way Sony and Microsoft could say that Nintendo isn't the only one to offer such products anymore. Switch is a much bigger deal though, because peripherals aren't going to cut it and the typical processing power of Sony's and Microsoft's consoles works against them.

Interesting. I would make a bet with you but long term bets never work out. Chalk me down for less than 3DS and Wii U combined.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

JRPGfan said:
Volterra_90 said:

No way to know that until it's released. It's just a hunch. Also, I agree with the reasons posted in here. I'm only afraid of Nintendo mismanaging a winning concept. Also, and that's not a hunch, I know for a fact that Switch's pre-orders, in the store I work , far surpass those of the WiiU and 3DS in the same time frame. It's obviously not enough, I'm not that oblivious. But I have a good feeling about this in general. 

Im not as optimistic.... neogaf and here, seems to have alot that arnt that intrested.

On youtube too, and the main thing against it is the price. Unless nintendo drastically lowers prices (starting this first year) I highly doubt it ll do that much lifetime.

Did I address that point properly in the OP? I think it was point 9 that was about people who aren't interested in generation 8 systems. People who aren't gaming on current consoles are unlikely to spend their time talking about games on the internet, unless it's a website dedicated to retro gaming. This greatly skews the general reception that you can witness on GAF, VGC and even on Youtube, because the most popular gaming channels are from people who like generation 8 systems.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

JRPGfan said:
Volterra_90 said:

No worries about price. I mean, if Switch sells good at 330€ Nintendo won't lower the price, obviously. If that's not the case, they really have room to lower it. No need to rush. 

Install base is the reason to rush, good first year sales, leads to 3rd party support, which leads to more games, which again leads to more sales.

299$ is going to slow down how fast the switch sells. I think Nintendo are milking its die hard fans, and 3-4 months from its launch, they ll give it a 100$ price drop so sales can pick up.

That's a possibility. 100 seems a bit too much, but probably 250 on holidays if things don't go smoothly. No need to compare the price to XOne/PS4, because it's a totally different experience imo. I say this because I see comparisons between prices, and I think it's not relevant since you don't get the same gaming experiences.

Again, Nintendo has to keep the same support as the WiiU+3DS combined, which is a given. So I don't really feel they're in a hurry to lower the price soon. New third party support won't do a lot to Switch's sucess since you can get them on other platforms. That's my take on it. The only way to know is wait though.

What's more, I think Nintend is trying to differenciate themselves from the competition to attract new gamers. Which is where most people are, outside this gen systems. And those are people who are not familiar on how gaming prices go, on those resolution/graphics discussion on gaming forums. They could jump if a different experience is released. And that's Switch. I think it's the only console which can expand gaming.community.

Another factor is visibility. Let's say that I'm with a friend playing MK in the bus on a trip. We're clearly having fun, each one with a Joycon. It's a device which you take outdoors. People see about its existence, and might be interested about it. Eh, I'm not entirely sure if that's entirely relevant, but it might be. Most people are not aware of how gaming works nowadays.



I bet my "bet money" on 60-80 millions full life, including "pro" and "slim" skus



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I called probably argue on most of the points you made... but it would take too much work and I'm hungry. So instead i will say....

You sound the same way nintendo fans start at the start of every generation nintendo gets into.

There is always the claim of there being third party support then there is the cop out of third parties not being relevant.

There would be claims of it being on par sepc wise with whats out there just look at the NX(NS). We went from it even going to be more powerful than the PS4 to the cop out now of how power doesnt matter and this is the best thing ever.

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.



Intrinsic said:

I called probably argue on most of the points you made... but it would take too much work and I'm hungry. So instead i will say....

You sound the same way nintendo fans start at the start of every generation nintendo gets into.

There is always the claim of there being third party support then there is the cop out of third parties not being relevant.

There would be claims of it being on par sepc wise with whats out there just look at the NX(NS). We went from it even going to be more powerful than the PS4 to the cop out now of how power doesnt matter and this is the best thing ever.

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.

So, why did the Wii sell so well then?



Intrinsic said:

I called probably argue on most of the points you made... but it would take too much work and I'm hungry. So instead i will say....

You sound the same way nintendo fans start at the start of every generation nintendo gets into.

There is always the claim of there being third party support then there is the cop out of third parties not being relevant.

There would be claims of it being on par sepc wise with whats out there just look at the NX(NS). We went from it even going to be more powerful than the PS4 to the cop out now of how power doesnt matter and this is the best thing ever.

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.

I have a long history of saying that Nintendo shouldn't suck up to third parties because they don't need them; if third parties make unrealistic demands, then Nintendo is better off without them. I also have a history of saying that Nintendo's ninth generation home console does not need to be much more powerful than the Wii U.

And no, you couldn't argue the points that I've made, because you are already displaying struggles with the basics. You judge how many Nintendo fans remain by pointing towards Wii U sales, completely ignoring the 3DS. And you imply that the claim that the Wii sold because of Nintendo games is outrageous; may god help us all.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Most Nintendo fans here don't like Switch? Here? Seriously? I've read comments in which they've destroyed guys for not liking the console... handheld... whatever... Nintendo has the most loyal fan base of any of the big three. Switch will be relatively successful in that regard. That being said, I don't forsee Wii moms & pops shelling out this kind of dough for this machine. It'll be more WiiU and less Wii. If thats comsidered a success then yeah...



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RolStoppable said:
vivster said:

Isn't it sad that despite all the arguments you listed, the Switch will still fail? At least that's what my feeling is telling me.

Also you forgot to post your own prediction. It's easy to tell everyone they're wrong if you don't have an argument yourself you have to defend.

Right, I didn't post a prediction in this thread. But this thread isn't about posting predictions

Maybe you should change the thread title then. Just saying......



   

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