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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 84.59m by March 31st, Forecast for Next Fiscal Year is 25.5m

Wyrdness said:
OTBWY said:
Any new updates?

First week August I think

Rol already missed a major one so theres no guarantee of that week either.



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I didn't even notice Super Mario Party had passed 10mil in March. Remember when Mario Party wasn't a big seller anymore? I memba'.



@RolStoppable : Do you want to make a late update for March 2020 or do you want to wait until August and skip the last quarter?



Bofferbrauer2 said:

@RolStoppable : Do you want to make a late update for March 2020 or do you want to wait until August and skip the last quarter?

I did update the thread the last time around, but I didn't bump it. Here's the update in question, you can check the third post of this thread to find the same thing at its end, along with an edit timestamp dated on May 8th, so the update was indeed written a good two months ago.

UPDATE: May 7th, 2020

Switch family - 55.77m (+3.28m this quarter)
-Switch - 49.57m (+2.27m)
-Switch Lite - 6.19m (+1.00m)

Nintendo beat their revised forecast by ~1.5m, bringing the final tally for the fiscal year to 21.03m units. Their forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2021 is 19m, a conservative projection that is owed to the uncertainty that the coronavirus brings with it. Switch is set to pass the lifetime sales of the legendary Nintendo Entertainment System (61.91m) midway through the fiscal year and even has a chance to pass the 3DS (75.77m so far, will only add a miniscule amount more until the end of its life) by the end of it. The 3DS's software sales (383.11m LTD) will be beaten handily by Switch within the next few months (356.24m LTD).

This update and future ones forego to list shipments of major Nintendo games because the previously linked Google spreadsheet contains all the compiled data.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

And we need another update here.



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UPDATE: August 6th, 2020

Switch family - 61.44m (+5.67m this quarter)
-Switch - 52.63m (+3.05m)
-Switch Lite - 8.81m (+2.62m)

Nintendo did not revise their forecasts despite a stellar first quarter in the fiscal year ending March 2021. LTD software shipments have passed the 400m mark (406.67m). Switch hardware shipments are up 3.54m units year over year, but the upcoming quarter will pose a much more challenging comparison, because it saw the launch of Switch Lite last year (4.80m Switch consoles in total shipped during July to September 2019). Nevertheless, the current fiscal year will remain comfortably ahead through the first six months (6.93m in 2019).

The most crucial quarter is, like always, the one with Christmas in it. Nintendo still hasn't officially announced their fall lineup for 2020, so the strength or lack thereof remains unknown. This secrecy makes it very difficult, if not impossible, to predict how the current fiscal year as a whole will fare. It's looking very likely that last year's 21.03m will get beaten, but by how much is anybody's guess.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Aerys said:
Switch will bé a flop unless they cut thé Price... À lot.

Thats it

The best thing about this post is that after 4 years they still have to cut the price, and it doesn't sound like it'll happen soon.....



UPDATE: November 5th, 2020

Switch family - 68.30m (+6.86m this quarter)
-Switch - 57.93m (+5.30m)
-Switch Lite - 10.36m (+1.55m)

Momentum remains strong all around the world with significant year over year increases in Europe and Other. Nintendo revised their hardware and software forecasts upwards: Hardware is now at 24m (previously 19m), software is now at 170m (previously 140m). Despite significant increases, the forecasts maintain a conservative outlook for the second half of the fiscal year. Nintendo's first party holiday lineup is the weakest one Switch has had yet, but if there was any year where Nintendo could afford this, it's this one.

Switch will pass the 3DS's LTD sales (75.94m) within the holiday quarter, making the GBA (81.51m) the next target in sight. A feat that will very likely be accomplished within this fiscal year.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

This thread is golden :D



If it isn't turnbased it isn't worth playing   (mostly)

And shepherds we shall be,

For Thee, my Lord, for Thee. Power hath descended forth from Thy hand, That our feet may swiftly carry out Thy command. So we shall flow a river forth to Thee And teeming with souls shall it ever be. In Nomine Patris, et Filii, et Spiritūs Sancti. -----The Boondock Saints

Needs another update.

Forecasts: 26.5m Switch, 205m software and OP at 560bn.

Eyes are open, and so are the wallets.