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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 84.59m by March 31st, Forecast for Next Fiscal Year is 25.5m

I think that the minimum would be 60M. It could do way better than that, if Nintendo doesn't screw things badly. Which is a factor we have to acknowledge XD.



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Well, this should be interesting. Tagging for incoming epic mudslinging contest.



Volterra_90 said:

I think that the minimum would be 60M. It could do way better than that, if Nintendo doesn't screw things badly. Which is a factor we have to acknowledge XD.

Its not doing 60m+ lifetime sales unless nintendo drop the switch price by 100$ within the first year.



It is starting.
They have much potential. Depend on how nintendo will treat switch from now. Starting by droping the price starting this holiday.
It can really reach 80+ million sales.



jonathanalis said:
It is starting.
They have much potential. Depend on how nintendo will treat switch from now. Starting by droping the price starting this holiday.
It can really reach 80+ million sales.

You believe they ll drop price 100$ first year too huh? I hope so.



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JRPGfan said:
Volterra_90 said:

I think that the minimum would be 60M. It could do way better than that, if Nintendo doesn't screw things badly. Which is a factor we have to acknowledge XD.

Its not doing 60m+ lifetime sales unless nintendo drop the switch price by 100$ within the first year.

No way to know that until it's released. It's just a hunch. Also, I agree with the reasons posted in here. I'm only afraid of Nintendo mismanaging a winning concept. Also, and that's not a hunch, I know for a fact that Switch's pre-orders, in the store I work , far surpass those of the WiiU and 3DS in the same time frame. It's obviously not enough, I'm not that oblivious. But I have a good feeling about this in general. 



Volterra_90 said:
JRPGfan said:

Its not doing 60m+ lifetime sales unless nintendo drop the switch price by 100$ within the first year.

No way to know that until it's released. It's just a hunch. Also, I agree with the reasons posted in here. I'm only afraid of Nintendo mismanaging a winning concept. Also, and that's not a hunch, I know for a fact that Switch's pre-orders, in the store I work , far surpass those of the WiiU and 3DS in the same time frame. It's obviously not enough, I'm not that oblivious. But I have a good feeling about this in general. 

Im not as optimistic.... neogaf and here, seems to have alot that arnt that intrested.

On youtube too, and the main thing against it is the price. Unless nintendo drastically lowers prices (starting this first year) I highly doubt it ll do that much lifetime.



JRPGfan said:
Volterra_90 said:

No way to know that until it's released. It's just a hunch. Also, I agree with the reasons posted in here. I'm only afraid of Nintendo mismanaging a winning concept. Also, and that's not a hunch, I know for a fact that Switch's pre-orders, in the store I work , far surpass those of the WiiU and 3DS in the same time frame. It's obviously not enough, I'm not that oblivious. But I have a good feeling about this in general. 

Im not as optimistic.... neogaf and here, seems to have alot that arnt that intrested.

On youtube too, and the main thing against it is the price. Unless nintendo drastically lowers prices (starting this first year) I highly doubt it ll do that much lifetime.

No worries about price. I mean, if Switch sells good at 330€ Nintendo won't lower the price, obviously. If that's not the case, they really have room to lower it. No need to rush. 



vivster said:

Isn't it sad that despite all the arguments you listed, the Switch will still fail? At least that's what my feeling is telling me.

Also you forgot to post your own prediction. It's easy to tell everyone they're wrong if you don't have an argument yourself you have to defend.

Right, I didn't post a prediction in this thread. But this thread isn't about posting predictions, it's about how you form a proper prediction.

Regardless, my prediction is that Switch will sell more units than 3DS and Wii U combined. Here are some of the reasons:

1. Switch does not commit hardware blunders like the 3DS and Wii U. The market didn't like 3D. There was no reason to believe that the second coming of the GameCube would suddenly be successful instead of a failure. The Gamepad is the logical evolution of the GC-GBA connectivity that used a second screen to provide additional information or asymmetrical multiplayer; ideas of such GameCube games were implemented in the Wii U launch title Nintendo Land. The Wii U was built around failed ideas.

On the other hand, Switch is not tethered to the TV. People like portability. The kids who have been growing up in the last ~10 years do not see the TV as the central piece of entertainment like older generations do. The idea that a game console is limited to the TV will eventually be archaic. Other Switch hardware features revolve around the Joy-cons. People like multiplayer, so being able to use a console for that right out of the box is a plus. Motion controllers were a hit in the past. Their demise was that Nintendo changed to a controller that doesn't provide proper motion controls (the Gamepad). Nevermind that motion controls are only an optional part of the system, so there's no reason why anyone should be offended by them.

2. Switch's software pipeline is going to be in good shape, because it's the device where all Nintendo games will go. Droughts like on the Wii U aren't going to happen. Switch is also going to be off to a great start as far as big software is concerned which makes price the only real hurdle that needs to be overcome.

3. Switch is made by a humbled Nintendo that is going to take sales data into account, so the games they make will be more in line with what the market wants, unlike on the 3DS and Wii U where it was all too often about being creative and doing whatever the developers want. Cases in point: The new Zelda doesn't follow Skyward Sword's footsteps, the new 3D Mario does not aim to replace 2D Mario. I don't expect every game to be shaped like this, but there will be more caution on Nintendo's part when it comes to their flagship games.

4. Switch's positioning in the market is unique, meaning that there is no substitute for it. That's how and why Nintendo will be able to get away with the prices they charge. If there's no comparable competition, companies can charge a premium and still sell a lot of units. Switch's nature also makes it highly unlikely that Sony or Microsoft even dare to challenge Nintendo. The Wii, which also had unique positioning, could be addressed by releasing peripherals for PS3 and 360. That way Sony and Microsoft could say that Nintendo isn't the only one to offer such products anymore. Switch is a much bigger deal though, because peripherals aren't going to cut it and the typical processing power of Sony's and Microsoft's consoles works against them.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
barneystinson69 said:

Oh Rol. 

1. Yes, lots have given up on them. They continue to cater to a casual audience that is long gone, and has hurt them in being a viable console provider.

2. Well I'm sure Nintation360 would disagree with you.

3. Lots of people do not trust Nintendo anymore. And the majority of fans didn't skip it, I mean most core Nintendo fans got the console. Those are just all the fans that're left...

4. It is definently in trouble in the west, especially if it is touted as a home console replacement. 

5. Yes, it is very weak. Having only 1 AAA title at launch, and then having a few more through the summer isn't a "juggernaut" lineup.

6. We'll have to wait and see

7. The reason they have their games at the top is due to piss poor third party support, so I'd expect first parties to drag a little bit of the slack.

8. Wii U and 3DS had plenty of problems, and the Switch only shows how blind Nintendo is to what the gaming market wants.

9. Yes, people are going to come from the sky and buy this thing because its from "nintendo". I really want to see your predictions on the Wii U

10. No, HW that is 7-8 years dated is totally worth the price. I mean the XB1 and PS4 are cheaper, but no... being "special" is why they can do this. Oh wait, this is almost a copy and paste of the nvidia shield...

Conclusion: Learn to be a better liar.

There is no cure for you.

Same for yourself...



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).