Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 61.44m by June 30th, Forecast for Fiscal Year 2020 Remains at 19m

Best selling zelda, best selling 3d mario, best selling super smash, best selling mario party is nailed on, best selling xenoblade and switch will have the best selling fire emblem by a country mile. I also wouldn't be surprised if luigi's mansion 3 became the best selling luigi's mansion within one year ( 6m sales of dark moon to beat). If you discount the pack in sales of wii sports then nintendo software sales are as strong as ever, one single game may not sell mario kart wii numbers (37.7m) but so many other franchises are beating their wii era iterations.

Last edited by Metroid33slayer - on 30 July 2019

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Metroid33slayer said:

Best selling zelda, best selling 3d mario, best selling super smash, best selling mario party is nailed on, best selling xenoblade and switch will have the best selling fire emblem by a country mile. I also wouldn't be surprised if luigi's mansion 3 became the best selling luigi's mansion within one year ( 6m sales of dark moon to beat). If you discount the pack in sales of wii sports then nintendo software sales are as strong as ever, one single game may not sell mario kart wii numbers (37.7m) but so many other franchises are beating their wii era iterations.

I'm hoping for eventually the best selling Metroid game too.



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Geralt99 said:
Prediction:Switch will go past 100 million and max out at 110

Sounds about right.



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RolStoppable said:

UPDATE: July 30th, 2019

Switch - 36.87m (+2.13m this quarter)
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 17.89m (+1.20m)
Super Mario Odyssey - 14.94m (+0.50m)
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 14.73m (+0.92m)
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 13.61m (+0.84m)
Pokémon: Let's Go, Eevee/Pikachu! - 10.98m (+0.35m)
Splatoon 2 - 9.02m (+0.32m)
Super Mario Party - 6.99m (+0.59m)
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 4.10m (+0.79m)
1-2-Switch - 3.01m (+0.04m)
Mario Tennis Aces - 2.75m (+0.11m)

Switch hardware shipments in quarter 1 of any given fiscal year so far remain underwhelming, but this is the best Q1 Switch has had so far. Sell-through rates have been notably better in comparison to one year ago, so the only marginally higher shipments are likely due to the original Switch SKU being phased out by August and September, depending on region. For the entire last fiscal year, Switch shipped 16.95m units. The current fiscal year is 0.25m ahead after Q1, so Nintendo's forecast of 18m remains unchanged. Q2 will see the launch of an improved standard SKU with better battery life, but more importantly, also the launch of the handheld-only Switch Lite, so last year's Q2 of 3.19m should be comfortably exceeded by 0.5m or more, keeping Switch on track to beat the SNES's lifetime sales of 49.10m by the end of calendar year 2019. For comparison, the 3DS needed one year more than Switch to beat the SNES.

On the software front, Super Mario Odyssey and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate are poised to crack the 15m barrier in the next update. Splatoon 2 will have to wait until the end of the calendar year to celebrate the 10m mark which will bring the total of 10m+ sellers to seven when Pokémon Sword/Shield is accounted for. Breath of the Wild will be the fourth 15m+ seller by the end of the calendar year and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe the first 20m+ seller.

We also have a better regional breakdown.

Japan 8.76m

Americas: 14.84m

Europe: 9.6m

Other: 3.69m

The Switch is currently 4.4m ahead of 3DS, which is 14.4%. If 14.4% holds, then the Switch will sell ~85m. Many people expect more than that though, of course. I am curious on what kind of regional breakdown you would expect Switch to have with its final LTD.



With the price point of the NS lite, i see 100 million coming up .



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Geralt99 said:
Prediction:Switch will go past 100 million and max out at 110

Yeah, it beating PSOne and Wii on the long run seems almost like a given by now.

But can it go even farter? I think the Lite will give us some answers on that this holiday season.



UPDATE: October 31st, 2019

Switch - 41.67m (+4.80m this quarter)
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 19.01m (+1.12m)
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 15.71m (+0.98m)
Super Mario Odyssey - 15.38m (+0.44m)
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 14.54m (+0.93m)
Pokémon: Let's Go, Eevee/Pikachu! - 11.28m (+0.30m)
Splatoon 2 - 9.28m (+0.26m)
Super Mario Party - 7.59m (+0.60m)
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 4.59m (+0.49m)
Super Mario Maker 2 - 3.93m (+1.51m)
The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening - 3.13m (NEW)

The launch of the Switch Lite resulted in a very strong Q2 with 4.80m units shipped, allowing the Switch family as a whole to pass the 40m mark; LTD shipments are now at 41.67m. The forecast of 18m units for the fiscal year remains unchanged despite Switch being on a much better pace than during last fiscal year's 16.95m run; in a comparison through two quarters, 2019 is at 6.93m vs. 2018's 5.07m. Nintendo remains conservative this fiscal year and opts to wait until after the holiday season to revise their forecast.

The same holds true for the total software forecast where 2019's pace is considerably better, but no change has been made yet. As for individual software titles, the cutoff for the top 10 is now above 3m units and will raise to above 4m with the next update. Smaller multimillion sellers won't show up anymore, so I'll use the writeup to mention games that would otherwise get lost in the shuffle. This time it's Fire Emblem: Three Houses with its 2.29m debut which make it feasible to turn it into the best-selling Fire Emblem of all time eventually.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

UPDATE: January 30th, 2020

Switch family - 52.49m (+10.82m this quarter)
-Switch - 47.30m (+7.58m)
-Switch Lite - 5.19m (+3.24m)

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 22.96m (+3.95m)
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 17.68m (+1.97m)
Super Mario Odyssey - 16.59m (1.21m)
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 16.34m (+1.80m)
Pokémon Shield/Sword - 16.06m (NEW)
Pokémon: Let's Go, Eevee/Pikachu! - 11.76m (+0.48m)
Splatoon 2 - 9.81m (+0.53m)
Super Mario Party - 9.12m (+1.53m)
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 5.85m (+1.26m)
Luigi's Mansion 3 - 5.37m (NEW)

The Switch family exceeds 50m one quarter after it has passed the 40m mark. Nintendo has increased their forecast for this fiscal year from 18m to 19.5m. Both Pokémon Shield/Sword and Luigi's Mansion 3 had strong debuts, pushing the threshold to enter the top 10 above 5.3m units which in turn leaves out another 5m+ seller (Super Mario Maker 2). So after its first 12 fiscal quarters, Switch has already 11 5m sellers, 6 10m sellers, 5 15m sellers and 1 20m seller. A detailed listing of Switch hardware/software shipments, including individual first party titles, can be viewed in this Google spreadsheet.

A couple of interesting links this time. Two threads were created earlier this month, asking when Switch will pass the Wii and the PS4, respectively. While the vast majority expects Switch to sell more than 100m units lifetime, it's largely ruled out that Switch can pass the PS4.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241675
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241681



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Any new updates?




OTBWY said:
Any new updates?

First week August I think