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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 111.08m by June 30th, Forecast for Current Fiscal Year Remains at 21.0m

Even if Switch is over the hill (and it might not be if shortages get relieved), we’re still very very high up on the hill. Think of Wii’s history, and 2021 is kind of like a year inserted between 2008 and 2009, where 2022 for Switch will likely be more like 2009 for the Wii, decline earlier in the year and a boom in the autumn quarter. That’s my feeling on it anyway because of the more elongated lifespan due to the hybrid factor.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

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@Jumpin

I actually feel like 2021 is more like 2009. I could see holiday sales in 2021 edging out 2020. Essentially:

2020=2008 (peak year, coincidentally we got new Animal Crossing games and the global economy tanked. both were considered quiet years from Nintendo after Q1.)

2021=2009 (first year where sales declined YOY)

2022=2010 (pretty big year as far as releases are concerned)

2023=2011 (last major releases with SS on Wii and likely MP4 and Gen 9 on Switch)

2024=2012 (successor launch during the holidays)



RolStoppable said:

UPDATE: February 3rd, 2022

Switch family - 103.54m (+10.68m this quarter)
-Switch - 81.68m (+5.34m)
-Switch Lite - 17.87m (+1.35m)
-Switch OLED - 3.99m (NEW)

The most recent quarter fulfilled the expectations from the previous writeup. Switch has passed the 100 million mark and is now fifth on the list of the best-selling consoles of all time. It's on pace to move into third place by the end of calendar year 2022 with an additional chance of becoming the first Nintendo console to crack the 1 billion mark in software shipments.

The only negative news is that the semiconductor shortages persist and as a result Nintendo made another downward revision to their hardware forecast, now at 23m. On the other hand, software got adjusted up again, now expected to hit 220m.

Switch's biggest area left for growth (Europe) has responded well to the price adjustments from last fall, so declines in other markets, namely Japan, can be offset in the foreseeable future. Switch will turn five years old in a month and there's no successor in sight. The software pipeline going into year 6 is looking better than for any Nintendo system before it, so the pieces remain in place to make a run for the title of best-selling console of all time.

That said, it's still impressive that their downward revision was due to shortages and not demand. Looking at the stores around me, most of them are sold out of all Switch models aside from one color variant of the Switch Lite. Demand is still very high for the console, so it is possible we could actually see an almost flat year IF they fix the shortages. 

I don't think they'll have a flat year. I think they'll be down 10-15% personally. But I acknowledge it's possible. 



The fifth year is off to solid start.



Let me just say that it’s incredible that Switch reached the 100+ million milestone not only at such a rate but without any of the notable games:

- Call of Duty
- Battlefield
- GTA
- Madden

Even the FIFA games the Switch gets are far cry versions compared to the PS4/5/Xbone/Xbox Series versions.

I just point these particular games out because they are the usual multiplat games that have mainstream appeal and sell millions on every entry. GTA is a sales juggernaut especially with GTA V still selling almost a decade after its initial release on PS3/Xbox 360.

The Wii, DS, 3DS, and even the Wii U had games from at least one or two of these series. The DS even had an original GTA game called Chinatown Wars.

I’m sure the developers of these respective series probably don’t care at the moment as they’re getting their money from the other platforms. They probably don’t care much for the potential from the 100+ million Switch user base. But it is interesting to point out.



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Kai_Mao said:

Let me just say that it’s incredible that Switch reached the 100+ million milestone not only at such a rate but without any of the notable games:

- Call of Duty
- Battlefield
- GTA
- Madden

Even the FIFA games the Switch gets are far cry versions compared to the PS4/5/Xbone/Xbox Series versions.

I just point these particular games out because they are the usual multiplat games that have mainstream appeal and sell millions on every entry. GTA is a sales juggernaut especially with GTA V still selling almost a decade after its initial release on PS3/Xbox 360.

The Wii, DS, 3DS, and even the Wii U had games from at least one or two of these series. The DS even had an original GTA game called Chinatown Wars.

I’m sure the developers of these respective series probably don’t care at the moment as they’re getting their money from the other platforms. They probably don’t care much for the potential from the 100+ million Switch user base. But it is interesting to point out.


I think Nintendo is seen as a bit of a different part of the industry than the PC-centric gaming titles that often do well on PS/XB consoles. While those brands are fairly mainstream, the Nintendo brand is the most mainstream in the industry currently, and of all time.

To give some perspective on sales: Madden’s all time top seller (5.77m combined on all platforms) would only rank 20th on Switch’s top selling games list. Battlefield’s all time best seller (17m combined on all platforms) would hit 8th on the Switch, and even Call of Duty Black Ops - the alltime best selling CoD game (30.72m combined from all releases and platforms) would be a distant third on Switch, and probably 5th by sometime next year when Breath of the Wild and Smash Bros Ultimate surpass it.

As well, those games tend not to sell very well on Nintendo platforms (as I said above, Nintendo is kind of a different part of the industry), and have never been system sellers for Nintendo. There are some GTA games on Switch: remasters of GTA3, Vice City, and San Andreas. I’m not sure how well a new GTA game would impact Switch sales (or its successor). Rockstar North (previously known as DMA) used to be an exclusive developer for Nintendo until the N64 era. There was some bad blood there because of the toxic relations with third parties in the Yamauchi era—I’m not sure that remains. There was a time when GTA could have been a Nintendo exclusive franchise.

Last edited by Jumpin - on 07 August 2022

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Jumpin said:
Kai_Mao said:

Let me just say that it’s incredible that Switch reached the 100+ million milestone not only at such a rate but without any of the notable games:

- Call of Duty
- Battlefield
- GTA
- Madden

Even the FIFA games the Switch gets are far cry versions compared to the PS4/5/Xbone/Xbox Series versions.

I just point these particular games out because they are the usual multiplat games that have mainstream appeal and sell millions on every entry. GTA is a sales juggernaut especially with GTA V still selling almost a decade after its initial release on PS3/Xbox 360.

The Wii, DS, 3DS, and even the Wii U had games from at least one or two of these series. The DS even had an original GTA game called Chinatown Wars.

I’m sure the developers of these respective series probably don’t care at the moment as they’re getting their money from the other platforms. They probably don’t care much for the potential from the 100+ million Switch user base. But it is interesting to point out.


I think Nintendo is seen as a bit of a different part of the industry than the PC-centric gaming titles that often do well on PS/XB consoles. While those brands are fairly mainstream, the Nintendo brand is the most mainstream in the industry currently, and of all time.

To give some perspective on sales: Madden’s all time top seller (5.77m combined on all platforms) would only rank 20th on Switch’s top selling games list. Battlefield’s all time best seller (17m combined on all platforms) would hit 8th on the Switch, and even Call of Duty Black Ops - the alltime best selling CoD game (30.72m combined from all releases and platforms) would be a distant third on Switch, and probably 5th by sometime next year when Breath of the Wild and Smash Bros Ultimate surpass it.

As well, those games tend not to sell very well on Nintendo platforms (as I said above, Nintendo is kind of a different part of the industry), and have never been system sellers for Nintendo. There are some GTA games on Switch: remasters of GTA3, Vice City, and San Andreas. I’m not sure how well a new GTA game would impact Switch sales (or its successor). Rockstar North (previously known as DMA) used to be an exclusive developer for Nintendo until the N64 era. There was some bad blood there because of the toxic relations with third parties in the Yamauchi era—I’m not sure that remains. There was a time when GTA could have been a Nintendo exclusive franchise.

Ah shoot I forgot about the GTA Trilogy remaster. But even then it released in very bad shape for all consoles so whatever sales potential it had on switch sorta dwindled by launch.

Well Take Two/Rockstar Games released Chinatown Wars on the DS, an original GTA game. So their relationship with Nintendo must be workable at least.

Though I would think having COD and Madden on Switch and selling decently for what they are (3-5 million) would still add to the software sales on Switch. There is an argument that having COD and Madden on PS and Xbone have sort of inflated their respective overall software sales because they sell so well every year.



Kai_Mao said:

Let me just say that it’s incredible that Switch reached the 100+ million milestone not only at such a rate but without any of the notable games:

- Call of Duty
- Battlefield
- GTA
- Madden

Even the FIFA games the Switch gets are far cry versions compared to the PS4/5/Xbone/Xbox Series versions.

I just point these particular games out because they are the usual multiplat games that have mainstream appeal and sell millions on every entry. GTA is a sales juggernaut especially with GTA V still selling almost a decade after its initial release on PS3/Xbox 360.

The Wii, DS, 3DS, and even the Wii U had games from at least one or two of these series. The DS even had an original GTA game called Chinatown Wars.

I’m sure the developers of these respective series probably don’t care at the moment as they’re getting their money from the other platforms. They probably don’t care much for the potential from the 100+ million Switch user base. But it is interesting to point out.

The selling power of these big third party franchises can be misleading.  They actually are not nearly as good at selling a console as Nintendo's best first party software.  These games are released on multiple platforms, while Nintendo's games are released on a single platform.  You have to be careful when comparing a multiplatform game with a single platform game.  A game that sells 30m+ makes a whole lot of cash for the developer, but that doesn't mean it is selling Playstation hardware like a 30m+ game would sell Nintendo hardware.

For example, take Call of Duty: Black Ops.  (I found some conflicting data on this game, so I am just going to provide some estimates to give you an idea of what I'm talking about.)  If this game sold 31m units, then the platform breakdown is something like XBox360 (15m), PS3 (13m), PC and other platforms (3m).  The best selling platform is only 15m.  However, Switch currently has 7 games that have sold 18m+.  As impressive as CoD: Black Ops is, it just doesn't have the system selling power of the top 7 Switch games.  All of those CoD sales are split across multiple platforms.

Third party games can be misleading in their system selling power, because we usually don't get a split of how much each game sold per platform.  The best we can do is often do paper napkin math where we estimate which platform got what percentage of sales and try to figure out how much each game sold by platform.  But even in doing this, it's fairly reasonable to conclude that first party software does a significant role in selling even Playstation and XBox hardware.  For example, God of War has sold around 20m copies on the PS4 alone.  That actually puts its PS4-only sales above every third party game except GTA5.  

Now think about Nintendo first party sales.  BotW and Smash Bros are heading toward 30m+, Animal Crossing 40m+, and Mario Kart 8 50m+ at least.  Even God of War pales in comparison to this, and third party sales stack up even worse than GoW when you split them up into individual platforms.  In the end, the software that is best at selling hardware is actually the top Nintendo first party software.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 09 August 2022