Some news to backup your claims Rol.Could mean nothing since we have no raw numbers, but it is still good news.

http://www.ign.com/articles/2017/01/15/gamestop-sells-out-of-nintendo-switch-pre-orders?abthid=587bf06333e910774400000a

Based on what WE know so far, thé console wont sell more than 20M maximum

I want to address one point really.

Do we actually know for a fact (has it been confirmed) that the Switch actually is replacing their handheld console release? Are we certain that one wont come or that the 3DS doesn't just keep getting updated hardware to the point that it's almost like a next gen handheld?

Since I am at work I will only respond to point 4 Western Devs.

The reason the sales has no impact on Nintendo consoles is because over the last 3 and a half generation Nintendo gamers have been deserting Nintendo for various reasons. It all slowly started with N64 and every generation more and more left so therefore sales of 3rd party games clearly will go down as only the pure loyalist Nintendo only gamers want only Nintendo games.

Ever generation it is become more and more hard to justify a Nintendo console when you get older and time limited and just can't be F'ed owning so many consoles.

If Nintendo were able to get full 3rd party Western support then after a couple gens you watch those sales would go up as the kids have not shifted to PS or XBOX. They would be playing and the next round of kids and their kids would be playing.

Good points. The best part for me is that you used sales data and common sense to cover your points most of the time. Thank you for that!

Ok... lets try this.....

I judge how many nintendo fans remain by referencing the wiiU. Yes thats tru, and I won't fault you for jumping at that cause i didnt take the time to elaborate. As far as nintendo goes, you have their home console and their handheld console divisions. Lets start with handhelds.

Its easy looking at the 3DS and say but it sold 60M. But to do that and not mention that in sold only half as much as the DS would be to not see the full picture. The 2ds competed with eth PSP and still hadily won. The 3DS competed with the vita and also won. but the full picture is that there was in increasing presence in mobile gaming on smartphones that had taken up most of that handheld market and still does till this day. Proof is in the sales difference between the DS and the 3DS. And nintendo had always been dominant in the handheld space. If nintendo made a dedicated handheld gaming console today, no matter how good it is.... it will sell less than the 3DS, and we have smartphones to thank for that.

Now consoles, its easy looking at nintendo home consoles and say but look at the wii...... again, to do that will be to not look at the full picture. The wii didn't sell 100M because it was a software behemoth. It sold the way it did because of motion gaming and the rapid artificial growth nintendo achieved with it.  The nintendo faithful were no doubt part of that 100M, but the majority of that number were the casuals. No matter how bad things get, if this weren't true; there is no reason you go from having 100M proper or at least half supporters to having only 13M consoles sold in over 4 years.There has never been such a drop in user base from generation to generation from a particlular platform holder in the history of video games. 

So that tells us that the 13M we saw on the wiiU (and don't forget a lot of those people probably also bought a 3DS, represent whats left of the nintendo faithful. Of which would probably comprise aboutr 70% of that 13M.  This isn't e just talking shit, look at the N64, GC and WiiU.... 32M, 21M , 13M respectively.... what does that tell you?

This is why I believe that the NS will sell around 35M-40M lifetime. The handheld market will shrink again the same way its been shrinking due to smartphones. But they will sell more than they would have sold a typical home console because now their "home console" is also a handheld. They won't however be able to have one person buying a handheld and then a home console cause now its one device. 

I bolded it for you in my response above.

edited: changed typo 2DS to DS.

Nintendo has once again released an underpowered console. Their only hope is to reclaim the Wii casual fad or I think the console will end up performing worse than the WiiU in both software output and hardware sales. I don't think mobile handheld gaming will be enough to save Switch.

oh pls that was a typo. Meant the nintendo DS

i will go and correct it in my original post..... so still think i don't know anyhing about nintendo?

hell, if you knew as much as you seem to suggest you do you would have known that was what i meant.

But you know what, Its clear you aren't even trying to have a discussion. To you everyone that doesn't agrree with you must be a ninty hater and wants them to fail. Thats why you dismiss all that anyone says that contradicts what you are saying. So lets leave it as is and i will resort to what i tell everyone else like you on this matter.

Just wait and see.

The 3DS is up a bit YoY, but I feel this "boost" is a bit overstated. It's not like it's magically now selling double what it was before Pokemon Go.

It's a decent 20% bump for a few months and not every mobile app is going to be like Pokemon GO, Mario Run isn't finding the same level of success.

There are always alternatives too, saying there's no alternative so Nintendo can charge what they want ... well people can choose not to buy the system or choose a cheaper 3DS or just keep using their phones/tablets for whatever free time they have on the road. At home many people have a PS4/XB.

Many people were given the option of a $250 3DS and they chose simply not to buy the device period.

I hope Switch does well but none of those points in the OP really dissuade some of the issues the system could face.

The pre-orders/first wave of systems will sell out for sure because there's an easy 2-3 million really hardcore Nintendo fans who also know Nintendo underships a lot, so those first batch of systems will go quick, but after that I dunno.

Also I would say as cool as Mario Kart, Splatoon, and a new 3D Mario are ... the Wii U had all three of these too, and they only got the system to 15 million. DS/Wii were driven in sales by new IP like Wii Sports and Brain Training, there was nothing like that before, is 1,2 Switch going to drive hardware sales like Wii Sports did? I have my doubts. 

They need to get the price down to appeal to the 3DS audience, $360 with a game is too expensive I don't think they can hold out long at that price for long, not even with the MK8 port and Splatoon 2. IMO pushing the system like a home console and trying to price this as a premium product is a mistake. 

Wait what? What has pokemon go proved? That people that own smartphones will download a game?

so wait.... you saying that smartphones have not so far been carnibalizing handheld sales?  And what rising 3DS sales? you talking abot the holiday season? 

You know what nvm..... I agree, I don't know anything about nintendo...... but there is no point dragging this on. I've said wht i think will happen. In time we will see if I am right or wrong.