By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming Discussion - The Michael Pachter Prediction Tracker Thread

Pachter has made some 2018 predictions on this page if you're interested in adding those.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-12-18-how-will-2018-shape-the-games-business



6x master league achiever in starcraft2

Beaten Sigrun on God of war mode

Beaten DOOM ultra-nightmare with NO endless ammo-rune, 2x super shotgun and no decoys on ps4 pro.

1-0 against Grubby in Wc3 frozen throne ladder!!

Around the Network
Miguel_Zorro said:

Outstanding Predictions:

Several made December 20th, 2016 at http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-12-20-what-to-expect-in-the-games-biz-for-2017

1. PS4 Price to $199 within 2017 - Verdict: Likely It happened for BF before selling out

2. No Rockstar games other than Red Dead Redemption in 2017 - Verdict: Trending Correct Seems correct to me unless I missed something

3. Call of Duty returns to glory (tough to measure) Better than the previous one it seems at least.

4. Switch demand will be high.  The Switch will be sold out through September.  I believe this prediction as based on a price of $249. Verdict: Trending Correct Even at 299$ it sold very well and still sold out in Japan, but it became more widely available before September in the west

5. XBox Scorpio will be $399 499$, so incorrect

6. New Elder Scrolls in 2017 - Verdict: Trending Incorrect Just rehashes of Skyrim in portable and VR

7. No New Half Life game in 2017 - Verdict: Trending Correct Now that one was a freebie

8. "Microsoft will continue to support their systems, including Scorpio, with first party games"
http://gamingbolt.com/scalebound-cancellation-is-unfortunate-xbox-scorpio-will-see-lot-of-first-and-third-party-support-pachter - Verdict: Trending Poorly Technically true, but by far and large not enough to push the system enough

Just checked his predictions, and they where pretty solid for this year. 5 and 6 were wrong, but the others were all more or less correct.



Interesting thread.

Does anyone here remember his original predictions for the Vita and the 3ds ?



Bofferbrauer2 said:

[...]

Just checked his predictions, and they where pretty solid for this year. 5 and 6 were wrong, but the others were all more or less correct.

Yeah, but my dog could have made those predictions. And I don't even have a dog.

=P



Official member of VGC's Nintendo family, approved by the one and only RolStoppable. I feel honored.

Prediction - January 6, 2016: "Wii U to have poor third party support"

This one was in 2012.



Around the Network

tag



My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

I've made a number of updates. Some of these have some opinion involved - particularly #1 and #8. What do you guys think?

2017 Predictions:
Several made December 20th, 2016 at http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-12-20-what-to-expect-in-the-games-biz-for-2017

1. PS4 Price to $199 within 2017 - Verdict: I'm going with Incorrect. It did it $199 in some sales but I don't believe the ongoing price was $199. However, they did make the default system 1TB instead of 500GB, so this one is debateable.

2. No Rockstar games other than Red Dead Redemption in 2017 - Verdict: Correct. And not even Red Dead Redemption!

3. Call of Duty returns to glory (tough to measure): Verdict: Correct. Call of Duty World War 2 did really well.
- Part two "With a Modern Warfare Title": Verdict: Incorrect. It was World War 2.

4. Switch demand will be high. The Switch will be sold out through September. I believe this prediction as based on a price of $249. Verdict: Correct. Even at a higher price.

5. XBox Scorpio will be $399: Verdict: Incorrect. It's more than that.

6. New Elder Scrolls in 2017 - Verdict: Incorrect

7. No New Half Life game in 2017 - Verdict: Correct

8. "Microsoft will continue to support their systems, including Scorpio, with first party games"
http://gamingbolt.com/scalebound-cancellation-is-unfortunate-xbox-scorpio-will-see-lot-of-first-and-third-party-support-pachter - Verdict: Trending Poorly



Miguel_Zorro said:
I've made a number of updates. Some of these have some opinion involved - particularly #1 and #8. What do you guys think?

2017 Predictions:
Several made December 20th, 2016 at http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-12-20-what-to-expect-in-the-games-biz-for-2017

1. PS4 Price to $199 within 2017 - Verdict: I'm going with Incorrect. It did it $199 in some sales but I don't believe the ongoing price was $199. However, they did make the default system 1TB instead of 500GB, so this one is debateable.

2. No Rockstar games other than Red Dead Redemption in 2017 - Verdict: Correct. And not even Red Dead Redemption!

3. Call of Duty returns to glory (tough to measure): Verdict: Correct. Call of Duty World War 2 did really well.
- Part two "With a Modern Warfare Title": Verdict: Incorrect. It was World War 2.

4. Switch demand will be high. The Switch will be sold out through September. I believe this prediction as based on a price of $249. Verdict: Correct. Even at a higher price.

5. XBox Scorpio will be $399: Verdict: Incorrect. It's more than that.

6. New Elder Scrolls in 2017 - Verdict: Incorrect

7. No New Half Life game in 2017 - Verdict: Correct

8. "Microsoft will continue to support their systems, including Scorpio, with first party games"
http://gamingbolt.com/scalebound-cancellation-is-unfortunate-xbox-scorpio-will-see-lot-of-first-and-third-party-support-pachter - Verdict: Trending Poorly

4. Pachter overruled his prediction from December 2016 with a new one in January 2017:

http://fortune.com/2017/01/17/nintendo-switch-sales/

He pegged Switch sales at 1m through March 2017 and an LTD of 5m through March 2018.

Looking through this thread here, I pointed out an adjustment to his Switch prediction before. Said adjustment came after the 5m adjustment that I linked here. Giving Pachter credit for getting this one right isn't reasonable when he changes his mind so often. He made three notably different predictions for Switch within one month.

His Switch predictions are reminiscent of what he did for Vita where he had pre-launch predictions that covered "will sell better than the 3DS at $250" and "Vita will be dead on arrival in America."



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

My prediction for 2018 we will still not get to see Half Life 3. I would also argue the rdr prediction is at best half true, so incorrect.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

half life 3 won't come out in 2017 lol what an open goal that was, there was more chance of a meteor wiping out the earth.