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Forums - Sales Discussion - November 2016 NPD Thread! Hardware estimates in the OP!

jason1637 said:
With such a close race XB1 should win Dec. Great that we got these numbers early. Hopefully WC leakd the numbers early like they did this month.

What logic are you using that X1 would win December when it couldn't win Nov? PS4 already sold better on Cyber Monday and remains numebr 1 on Amazon. December follows November in trends and the PS4 is not only the hottest item this fall, but still the most popular gaming console. That won't change for the long run. Those 4 months are long gone and things are back to normal. Xbox has already had it's hype with the release of the Xbox One S and looking to the future people are buying consoles based on up coming games. FF15 is also driving PS4 sales, where as Xbox has nothing to sell it. Gears 4 has performed poorly and Battlefield has dropped after October.



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Soundwave said:
Lawlight said:

It's not considering how cheap X1s were going for.

There were discounts on PS4s at places too, so that's not a one way street. 

XBox should not have been even close to Sony this month, the whole line of reasoning we've heard the last 5-6 months is PS4 sales have been held down by people waiting for the PS4 Pro, but that doesn't look like the case to me. 

Eh. This is microsofts strongest month in their strongest territory and they have all this momentum from the xb1s. They basically just hit a wall running, now that the Pro is out. The paradigm will return back to normal at the very least until Scorpio comes out moving forward.  What are you gonna say when ps4 takes the next 9+ NPDs in a row?



Spazer said:
jason1637 said:
With such a close race XB1 should win Dec. Great that we got these numbers early. Hopefully WC leakd the numbers early like they did this month.

What logic are you using that X1 would win December when it couldn't win Nov? PS4 already sold better on Cyber Monday and remains numebr 1 on Amazon. December follows November in trends and the PS4 is not only the hottest item this fall, but still the most popular gaming console. That won't change for the long run. Those 4 months are long gone and things are back to normal. Xbox has already had it's hype with the release of the Xbox One S and looking to the future people are buying consoles based on up coming games. FF15 is also driving PS4 sales, where as Xbox has nothing to sell it. Gears 4 has performed poorly and Battlefield has dropped after October.

Well PS4 only beat XB1 by 100k, and it was on the same price and in some places had better deals. Also had a Pro model so lots of the sales were from upgrades. With the Pro upgrades slowing down and XB1S deals picking up i think MS will win the month. FFXV isnt an exclusive so for regular casuals its not a deciding factor. Gears 4 is doing less than other Gears but it probably has up to 35% digital so its probably sellinh pretty well. As got BF1 ofc it sales would drop but someone posted here that a gafer said sales were still at 1.3m. If thats true that really good sales.



jason1637 said:
Spazer said:

What logic are you using that X1 would win December when it couldn't win Nov? PS4 already sold better on Cyber Monday and remains numebr 1 on Amazon. December follows November in trends and the PS4 is not only the hottest item this fall, but still the most popular gaming console. That won't change for the long run. Those 4 months are long gone and things are back to normal. Xbox has already had it's hype with the release of the Xbox One S and looking to the future people are buying consoles based on up coming games. FF15 is also driving PS4 sales, where as Xbox has nothing to sell it. Gears 4 has performed poorly and Battlefield has dropped after October.

Well PS4 only beat XB1 by 100k, and it was on the same price and in some places had better deals. Also had a Pro model so lots of the sales were from upgrades. With the Pro upgrades slowing down and XB1S deals picking up i think MS will win the month. FFXV isnt an exclusive so for regular casuals its not a deciding factor. Gears 4 is doing less than other Gears but it probably has up to 35% digital so its probably sellinh pretty well. As got BF1 ofc it sales would drop but someone posted here that a gafer said sales were still at 1.3m. If thats true that really good sales.

I already said this before, but it is unreasonable to conclude that FFXV won't be a deciding factor considering that it favors the PS4 by a whole lot. The version that sells more proportionally will inherently have larger word of mouth, which will in turn encourage more consumers to get the console for that particular version than the other. Looking back at March 2010 NPD, the gap between the 360 and PS3 was one of the smallest monthly gap the PS3 had. Granted, God of War III played a significant role at making the gap smaller than usual, but FFXIII sold significantly more on the PS3 than on the 360 by ~435K units despite the latter console having a substantial lead and a FFXIII bundle to reinforce its hardware sales.

Fast forward to now, FFXV looks to sell 80% the PS4 and 20% on the XBO, a far cry from the previous 62.6% PS3 to 37.4% 360 ratio for FFXIII. I don't think the FFXV LE bundle is going to sell all that much, but it could make a difference considering how small November's gap was. And then, we have to consider that Microsoft did not release a new SKU like they did with the blue Gears 4 bundle last month, the PS4 won Cyber Monday, and the PS4's deals go for a longer duration (12/11 - 12/31) than the XBO's (12/11 - 12/24 unless Microsoft also extended the period). Frankly, it's a complete tossup.



jason1637 said:
Spazer said:

What logic are you using that X1 would win December when it couldn't win Nov? PS4 already sold better on Cyber Monday and remains numebr 1 on Amazon. December follows November in trends and the PS4 is not only the hottest item this fall, but still the most popular gaming console. That won't change for the long run. Those 4 months are long gone and things are back to normal. Xbox has already had it's hype with the release of the Xbox One S and looking to the future people are buying consoles based on up coming games. FF15 is also driving PS4 sales, where as Xbox has nothing to sell it. Gears 4 has performed poorly and Battlefield has dropped after October.

Well PS4 only beat XB1 by 100k, and it was on the same price and in some places had better deals. Also had a Pro model so lots of the sales were from upgrades. With the Pro upgrades slowing down and XB1S deals picking up i think MS will win the month. FFXV isnt an exclusive so for regular casuals its not a deciding factor. Gears 4 is doing less than other Gears but it probably has up to 35% digital so its probably sellinh pretty well. As got BF1 ofc it sales would drop but someone posted here that a gafer said sales were still at 1.3m. If thats true that really good sales.

Not saying FF15 is gonna do wonders, but the bolded part of your post is just BS. 

Remember destiny? Or even the bundled COD games on the PS4, or watchdogs....... none of those were exclusives.... look what they did for PS4 sales.

Lastly, because you can say something (no matter how outlandish it is) doesn't make it true.



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jason1637 said:
Spazer said:

What logic are you using that X1 would win December when it couldn't win Nov? PS4 already sold better on Cyber Monday and remains numebr 1 on Amazon. December follows November in trends and the PS4 is not only the hottest item this fall, but still the most popular gaming console. That won't change for the long run. Those 4 months are long gone and things are back to normal. Xbox has already had it's hype with the release of the Xbox One S and looking to the future people are buying consoles based on up coming games. FF15 is also driving PS4 sales, where as Xbox has nothing to sell it. Gears 4 has performed poorly and Battlefield has dropped after October.

Well PS4 only beat XB1 by 100k, and it was on the same price and in some places had better deals. Also had a Pro model so lots of the sales were from upgrades. With the Pro upgrades slowing down and XB1S deals picking up i think MS will win the month. FFXV isnt an exclusive so for regular casuals its not a deciding factor. Gears 4 is doing less than other Gears but it probably has up to 35% digital so its probably sellinh pretty well. As got BF1 ofc it sales would drop but someone posted here that a gafer said sales were still at 1.3m. If thats true that really good sales.

Really? so are you expecting an allocation rate of 50%? if Uk is any indication, 80%, 20% is gonna be the allocation rate for US.  if that is not enough to make a difference between both consoles then I don't know what to tell you.



Aura7541 said:
jason1637 said:

Well PS4 only beat XB1 by 100k, and it was on the same price and in some places had better deals. Also had a Pro model so lots of the sales were from upgrades. With the Pro upgrades slowing down and XB1S deals picking up i think MS will win the month. FFXV isnt an exclusive so for regular casuals its not a deciding factor. Gears 4 is doing less than other Gears but it probably has up to 35% digital so its probably sellinh pretty well. As got BF1 ofc it sales would drop but someone posted here that a gafer said sales were still at 1.3m. If thats true that really good sales.

I already said this before, but it is unreasonable to conclude that FFXV won't be a deciding factor considering that it favors the PS4 by a whole lot. The version that sells more proportionally will inherently have larger word of mouth, which will in turn encourage more consumers to get the console for that particular version than the other. Looking back at March 2010 NPD, the gap between the 360 and PS3 was one of the smallest monthly gap the PS3 had. Granted, God of War III played a significant role at making the gap smaller than usual, but FFXIII sold significantly more on the PS3 than on the 360 by ~435K units despite the latter console having a substantial lead and a FFXIII bundle to reinforce its hardware sales.

Fast forward to now, FFXV looks to sell 80% the PS4 and 20% on the XBO, a far cry from the previous 62.6% PS3 to 37.4% 360 ratio for FFXIII. I don't think the FFXV LE bundle is going to sell all that much, but it could make a difference considering how small November's gap was. And then, we have to consider that Microsoft did not release a new SKU like they did with the blue Gears 4 bundle last month, the PS4 won Cyber Monday, and the PS4's deals go for a longer duration (12/11 - 12/31) than the XBO's (12/11 - 12/24 unless Microsoft also extended the period). Frankly, it's a complete tossup.

The game will sell better on PS4 but since it doesnt hav MP and the bundle was very limited it wont have a big affect in sales.



Angelv577 said:
jason1637 said:

Well PS4 only beat XB1 by 100k, and it was on the same price and in some places had better deals. Also had a Pro model so lots of the sales were from upgrades. With the Pro upgrades slowing down and XB1S deals picking up i think MS will win the month. FFXV isnt an exclusive so for regular casuals its not a deciding factor. Gears 4 is doing less than other Gears but it probably has up to 35% digital so its probably sellinh pretty well. As got BF1 ofc it sales would drop but someone posted here that a gafer said sales were still at 1.3m. If thats true that really good sales.

Really? so are you expecting an allocation rate of 50%? if Uk is any indication, 80%, 20% is gonna be the allocation rate for US.  if that is not enough to make a difference between both consoles then I don't know what to tell you.

Neve said i expect 50/50. I expect it to be around the same as in the UK but for those looking to buy a console it wont be a deciding factor because its multiplat and has no MP,



Intrinsic said:
jason1637 said:

Well PS4 only beat XB1 by 100k, and it was on the same price and in some places had better deals. Also had a Pro model so lots of the sales were from upgrades. With the Pro upgrades slowing down and XB1S deals picking up i think MS will win the month. FFXV isnt an exclusive so for regular casuals its not a deciding factor. Gears 4 is doing less than other Gears but it probably has up to 35% digital so its probably sellinh pretty well. As got BF1 ofc it sales would drop but someone posted here that a gafer said sales were still at 1.3m. If thats true that really good sales.

Not saying FF15 is gonna do wonders, but the bolded part of your post is just BS. 

Remember destiny? Or even the bundled COD games on the PS4, or watchdogs....... none of those were exclusives.... look what they did for PS4 sales.

Lastly, because you can say something (no matter how outlandish it is) doesn't make it true.

Destiny,CoD, Watch Dogs were all big bundles that were easy to aquire while the FFXV bundle had a very limited run. Lets not also forget that those games appeal to a larger audience in the US than FF and they had MP which FFXV does not.



jason1637 said:
Aura7541 said:

I already said this before, but it is unreasonable to conclude that FFXV won't be a deciding factor considering that it favors the PS4 by a whole lot. The version that sells more proportionally will inherently have larger word of mouth, which will in turn encourage more consumers to get the console for that particular version than the other. Looking back at March 2010 NPD, the gap between the 360 and PS3 was one of the smallest monthly gap the PS3 had. Granted, God of War III played a significant role at making the gap smaller than usual, but FFXIII sold significantly more on the PS3 than on the 360 by ~435K units despite the latter console having a substantial lead and a FFXIII bundle to reinforce its hardware sales.

Fast forward to now, FFXV looks to sell 80% the PS4 and 20% on the XBO, a far cry from the previous 62.6% PS3 to 37.4% 360 ratio for FFXIII. I don't think the FFXV LE bundle is going to sell all that much, but it could make a difference considering how small November's gap was. And then, we have to consider that Microsoft did not release a new SKU like they did with the blue Gears 4 bundle last month, the PS4 won Cyber Monday, and the PS4's deals go for a longer duration (12/11 - 12/31) than the XBO's (12/11 - 12/24 unless Microsoft also extended the period). Frankly, it's a complete tossup.

The game will sell better on PS4 but since it doesnt hav MP and the bundle was very limited it wont have a big affect in sales.

Doesn't that actually play into the PS4's favor even more? Multiplayer focused games tend to have higher attachment rates on the XBO whereas singleplayer focused games (e.g. The Witcher III, Wolfenstein: The New Order, Doom) have higher attachment rates on the PS4. For instance, The Witcher III sold twice as much on the PS4 in the US and UK.

And I never said the bundle would have a big effect on sales. Reread my last paragraph as I already acknowledged that fact. The bundle, however, can effect the gap. A 100K gap isn't that big and December appears to be a complete tossup. An extra 50K sales from the bundle can make a difference between winning or losing December.