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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - (Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

Alkibiádēs said:
newwil7l said:

Too many people overestimate Pokemon. 3DS was down YOY both years that X/Y and Sun/Moon released. 

 

Obviously I think Switch will be a bigger and more authentic hit than the Wii but it won't be because of Pokemon alone at all.

And how do you think the 3DS would have fared without a Pokémon game?

I don't think it would have fared that much differently.



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That'd be pretty crazy if it manages to sell over 100 million (can two consoles this gen really do 100+ million???). I'm still predicting somewhere between 50-60 million LT. 80 million best case scenario MAX. I don't see it doing more than 80. This is all just based on haunch.



StreaK said:
That'd be pretty crazy if it manages to sell over 100 million (can two consoles this gen really do 100+ million???). I'm still predicting somewhere between 50-60 million LT. 80 million best case scenario MAX. I don't see it doing more than 80. This is all just based on haunch.

Hunch?



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StreaK said:
That'd be pretty crazy if it manages to sell over 100 million (can two consoles this gen really do 100+ million???). I'm still predicting somewhere between 50-60 million LT. 80 million best case scenario MAX. I don't see it doing more than 80. This is all just based on haunch.

Just out of curiosity, why do you think 50-60 million?

Can you show me a year by year breakdown of how you got that?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

How could it have one of the best launch ever (probably THE best launch year ever) and end up getting almost outsold by the xbox one lol ?

It would need to drop at around 10 millions per year starting FY 2018 to F2021 (dying after 5 years) while it's going to do around 15 millions on launch year with stock issues and none of Nintendo's biggest sellers. (Mario 3D is far from the best system seller.) Again, 50 millions would be a catastrophe. Even the Xbox one will, hopefully, surpass that number.



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newwil7l said:
Alkibiádēs said:

And how do you think the 3DS would have fared without a Pokémon game?

I don't think it would have fared that much differently.

If you ignore all the sales evidence... sure... 

This has got to be one of the craziest things I've ever heard on this forum and that's saying something.



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides

I think it was way too early to make that prediction when the OP made this thread and it is still too early to predict now. There are far too many uncertainties to make such bold predictions at this point. I want to see how quickly it can catch up to the GameCube and original Xbox's LTD and then the next milestone would be reaching 30 million (at which point I would say the system has a base that is starting to become viable). The next point beyond that would be 50 million (at which point I would say the installbase is fully viable). The bold predictions like reaching 100 million units can be made depending on if and how quickly the Switch reaches those milestones. Based on the first year alone it is difficult to make such a prediction. After all the 3DS (after price cut) and GBA also had very strong launches but neither went onto sell 100 million, and the DS's launch year was not particularly strong yet it is the second best console with regards to units sold. The key will be for Nintendo to maintain momentum and it remains to be seen whether or not they can do it in 2018.



Alkibiádēs said:
newwil7l said:

I don't think it would have fared that much differently.

If you ignore all the sales evidence... sure... 

This has got to be one of the craziest things I've ever heard on this forum and that's saying something.

The sales evidence actually proves my point which is why I am not as optimistic about Pokemon as so many others are. 

 

3DS was literally down YOY for both Pokemon releases.



newwil7l said:
Alkibiádēs said:

If you ignore all the sales evidence... sure... 

This has got to be one of the craziest things I've ever heard on this forum and that's saying something.

The sales evidence actually proves my point which is why I am not as optimistic about Pokemon as so many others are. 

 

3DS was literally down YOY for both Pokemon releases.

And it would have been down a lot more if it wasn't for Pokémon... We have weekly data for Japan and monthly data for US, we can tell very easily what effect Pokémon had on sales. 

To suggest it didn't boost sales is ludicrous. 



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides

xMetroid said:
How could it have one of the best launch ever (probably THE best launch year ever) and end up getting almost outsold by the xbox one lol ?

It would need to drop at around 10 millions per year starting FY 2018 to F2021 (dying after 5 years) while it's going to do around 15 millions on launch year with stock issues and none of Nintendo's biggest sellers. (Mario 3D is far from the best system seller.) Again, 50 millions would be a catastrophe. Even the Xbox one will, hopefully, surpass that number.

Yeah 3DS shipped 50 million in under 4 years and Switch shipments will be very similar to 3DS shipments after 13 months (~17 million).

Switch sales would have to take a huge hit not to reach 50 million.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.