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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - (Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

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Considering they are losing space to Smartphones and Switch doesn't seem like it will correct that I expect them to not cross 50M, but I'm sure they can make more money due to higher prices on SW.

On the droughts though, they were having difficulties releasing PS3 level graphics 6 years after the other companies... so even unifying if they really are close to X1 capabilities they will have even more issues releasing games to satisfy this, so I'm not sure you'll get luck to see it going over 100M.

And most of your points were pretty generic that could be made to any of the 3 or even new entrants to justify any sale you decide.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

The Sky Is So High
And The Donkeys Cannot Fly



Faelco said:
Nautilus said:

My comment was more directed to the other user.While your argument above simply skips many parts of my own argument, that is the Switch wont target only the core gamers and also those that are very casuals, such as the ones that bought the Wii or ones that have interest in Nintendo IPs due to childhood memories(or whatever other reason), through the marketing with the mobile games/movies and all those things(and I shown data that this could work), Im not saying you dont have a reasoning behind your arguments.I mean, you are also right.There are many factors(again, as it is stated in the OP) that could change everything.Plus, its not like "I bought a PS4, Ill never buy another console ever again".I mean, most people that will buy the PS4 Pro probably are already owners of the regular PS4.Thinking they could jump/buy an extra console is not that hard.

Im just tired of people claiming that Nintendo wont be able to have a successful console based on stupid reasons, and not giving ny real arguments with data to back them up, as like:

A)Its Nintendo, they are always doomed compared to Sony and Microsoft when home console is the subject.

B)SPECS!If its not cutting edge and running on 8K, its doomed from the start.

C)People acusing users who defend Nintendo of jumping to conclusions, when they themselves jump to conclusions.

But Ill give you this:You do know how to argument.Thats more than some users that come bashing Nintendo without having anything to say against.But you then go on to say "Let's not forget the really bad release timing either, in March between the PS4 Pro Christmas and the Xbox Scorpio Chrismas".Why is it a bad timing?Couldnt Scorpio timing be bad, because the Switch could, I dont know, sell like hotcakes and steal all the hype for scorpio?(fun fact:I saw somewhere, that the twitter trend for Switch was about 5 times higher than the trend for RDR2.In other words, even with that hyped game, people wanted to talk about Nintendo)What I mean is, its ALWAYS a "bad timing" for Nintendo to release their stuff.If it was this christams, people would have said it would be suicide against PS4 Pro and PSVR.If it were 2018, because the installed base of PS4 and XOne would be too big.If 2019, it would be bad because of PS5.For some users here, its always a bad timing, and they cant rationalize beyong the Nintendo is doomed perspective.

I didn't skip the part about the Switch not targeting the core gamers, like the Wii did. I just think that it's absolutely wrong. The Switch has nothing for non-gamers like the Wii had. The Wii was so successful because of the Wiimotes and the "move while playing video games" trend it launched (Wiifit for example, and then Move and Kinect). The Switch has nothing like that : if you're not interested in handheld gaming or home console gaming, you won't be interested in the Switch. So the Switch won't touch the non-gamer crowd the Wii managed to gather for a while (and who completely left the market after that). My family is a good example : at least 3 Wiis were bought when it was popular between my parents, uncles, sister... All left for dead in some drawer after a while and noone will even care about the Switch, there isn't anything in it that push a non-gamer to think "Oh, I should play video games". The few who still like to play video games play mobile games sometime and that's more than enough for them.

We'll see for the Nintendo mobile games. It did give a boost to the 3DS when the Pokemeon Go trend became really big. Not sure we'll see something else like this again, and it didn't really help the Wii U sales either. Video games movies... Bad 99% of the time maybe? Do you remember a good video game movie? The last Mario Bros movie isn't really a great ad for example... Sony is doing TLOU and Uncharted films and I just can't imagine it helping the PS4 sales in some significant way. Theme parks? It's nothing. When will it be done? How many yearly visitors? How many of them won't be Nintendo gamers already? Nintendo games will push the fans to go to the theme parks, not the other way around. Movies could even be a bad buzz for Nintendo, theme parks are a drop in the ocean IMO.

The launch timing is bad for several reason, the most important is that March is nothing compared to Christmas in terms of sales. Then, this Christmas, eveyone will talk about the PS4Pro. In every store, the new product with pictures everywhere will be the PS4Pro. Next Christmas, same thing with the Scorpio, everyone will talk about it and it will be the new product to buy for the hollidays. The Switch will never be a new product in a huge sales period. The Switch need to get big enough in 3 months, between its launch and the Scorpio's reveal at E3. After this reveal (and even some time before in fact), the whole industry will be talking about the Scorpio and the Switch will be put on the background. If the Switch is not really successfull before that, it will be really difficult to come back under the spotlight. That's how marketing and trends work usually. I'm not saying that there is a better timing, just that this one is bad. Launching a entirely new console in the middle of the gen is bad already anyway and they were in a bad spot as soon as they decided to do it IMO.

And the comparison between the RDR2 trailer and the Switch trailer is ridiculous. RDR sold 15 millions games, we're not talking about GTA here. It's a game known by the community, but not by a broader audience. It's not a game that will be even mentioned by non-gaming media (except maybe for the "no women in the trailer" detail). It should be nothing compared to a console revealed only in a video. A lot of people talked about the NX and saw the video, I'm not saying it's not the case. But it doesn't mean anything about the sales of the console. I saw the trailer 3 or 4 times I think. I won't buy the console though. Nintendo doesn't even use this attention to announce more information about the console. It's just a pretty cool trailer everyone will forget about in a few months, especially when the potential "bad news" will be released (specs, battery life, launch line up...). Filming a cool trailer is nice and all, but do cool video game trailers always mean great games and great sales? Of course not. 

It will depends on the specs, line up and price. But you can't magically create an audience. If the gen sell 200M home consoles, it will already be a great number. 80M consoles will already be sold when the Switch will release, and it won't sell 100 M out of the potential 120M left. That's why I said 50M max if it's succesfull (50M more PS4 max, 20M Xbox in that case), but 20 or 30 millions are possible if it's not that popular (for a max total of 170-180M consoles sold on an overall disappointing gen, it seems adequate). The only really unknown variable here is the 3DS crowd. As long as Nintendo doesn't kill the 3DS (and as I said earlier, I don't think they will), this audience shouldn't move in large numbers. And even if they kill the 3DS without any successor, if you take out of the 60M 3DS the players who own several 3DS, the players who own a Wii U or other home console and already plan to buy a Switch or not, the players who will go to mobile gaming, and the players who will just keep their 3DS and not buy anything for a while... It won't make the (at least) 50M missing for the 100M objective. Nintendo lost 50% of its handheld audience with the DS-3DS transition after all, it won't be better with a potential 3DS-Switch transition (even worse because mobile gaming keeps getting stronger).

We will be able to do more precise predictions when we'll get the details. 100M seems just completely out of the question for now. Maybe if they sell it at $150 or less... Otherwise, half of this would already be a good success for a mid-gen launch against already well-established consoles.

To the whole bolded part,Ill just answer this:You may be right.Taking out the part that pokemon GO didnt moving any Wii U is kinda obvious, since the Wii U dosent have the mainline pokemon games.But other than that, it is completely possible.I may not agree with you, since I think the oposite of what you claim will happen, but this is simply a matter of different perspectives.

Now for the timing, i think the timing itself is really good.Now, is it better than launching in the holidays?Probably not, but it could be advantageous.First of all, march-april is generally a time of year that is quieter in term of games and releases, so they could take that advantage and have everyone talking about them(media,fans, gamers in general), simply because there is nothing better to talk about.But that also gives them the chance to sell the Switch at a higher price(lets say 300) at the first few months, since generally first adopters are made up of core gamers and fans of the company making the system.Then, by the end of the year when they,well milked the ones open to pay a higher price(there is no better word for it, every company does that), they could lower the Switch to 250, or make a really good deal for 300 for the holiday push.I dont see much issue going up against Scorpio or PS4 because they are luxury items, more even so than consoles usually are.They are more expensive than the regular versions and they play the same games as the regular consoles, so the only ones that are going to buy them are the enthusiast or the more hardcore fans.Not to say they will sell bad, but it wont be enough to threaten the Switch by their own.What Nintendo needs to overcome, and that is with game lineup, and most importantly, marketing and ads, is trying to convince the general customer, gamers included, that they should buy the Switch instead of a PS4 or XOne.Or make the gamers that already have a PS4 for 2 or 3 years looking for the next thing jump to the Switch.And assuming they have a competitive price(250-300), they can.It will be hard, but the chance is there.

About RDR2, it was just an example that Nintendo has the power to cast light into themselves and get them into everyones attention.And lets not fool ourselves:It is not GTA, but RDR2 is big too.But that was it, just an example.Dont need to overanalyze it.About not releasing any more info, well I am no expert on marketing or anything, but I will agree with you that they didnt necessarily need to make the full reveal this year, but they should have made plans to reveal some informations here and there through the holiday just to get the ball going.But seeing how good this ad was, Ill give Nintendo the benefit of the doubt.

And to your last point, as I said earlier, people dont buy a console and never buy another for the next 6,7 years.Its not that the guy who bought a PS4 or XOne is going to stay there forever and never leave its ecosystem.Its already been roughly 3 years since PS4 and XOne launched.For many, they already got its moneys worth out of the console, and are seeking for the next thing.And that also dosent mean they will stop using the console.They just want to use/play something new, just like we nowadays like to change technological equipment every 2 years.Saying that the roof of sales for consoles is 200 million and that 80 million is already taken and is forever lost is silly and naive.With good marketing and a compelling product, anything is possible.Plus if you wanna get technical, Switch is technically a 9 generation system and that rule wouldnt apply, but nevermind this.And if they manage to convince 3DS+Vita owners to buy the system the first year(not all of them of course.Over time, but with a good influx the first year), they could kickstart the whole thing.Good sales first year, moves alot of system.Moving alot of system, third parties gets interested and make more games for the system.With more games, more people get interested and buy the system, and so on.

Is it too early to make such a prediction?Probably.But for me, I think i have seen enough to believe that Nintendo wont screw this up and will be able to be very successful again.Plus, its fun to make wild predictions sometimes!



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nautilus said:
Faelco said:

It depends.

You have to use data and research only if you don't think that the Switch will be the best console ever. If you think it will be, you can say anything you think about without any need for things like numbers or research ;)

Trying to downplay someone elses opinion without counter argumenting, on the other hand, needs nothing more than ignorance! XD

Well , u know  every kinder garden kid can make prediction as well , hey Nintendo switch will have 200 million sales, XD XD LMAO



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HollyGamer said:
Nautilus said:

Trying to downplay someone elses opinion without counter argumenting, on the other hand, needs nothing more than ignorance! XD

Well , u know  every kinder garden kid can make prediction as well , hey Nintendo switch will have 200 million sales, XD XD LMAO

I mean sure they can, if they write as well as I do and make arguments as well as I do!Now, I dont see any arguments in that 200 millions prediction XD



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nautilus said:
HollyGamer said:

Well , u know  every kinder garden kid can make prediction as well , hey Nintendo switch will have 200 million sales, XD XD LMAO

I mean sure they can, if they write as well as I do and make arguments as well as I do!Now, I dont see any arguments in that 200 millions prediction XD

My sugestion put more effort , put data, sales comparison, SWOT, and other data that benefit you theory. 



HollyGamer said:
Nautilus said:

I mean sure they can, if they write as well as I do and make arguments as well as I do!Now, I dont see any arguments in that 200 millions prediction XD

My sugestion put more effort , put data, sales comparison, SWOT, and other data that benefit you theory. 

I mean, if bashing your head against the keyboard and post the result is what you mean by reasearch, then yeah,sure.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nautilus said:
HollyGamer said:

My sugestion put more effort , put data, sales comparison, SWOT, and other data that benefit you theory. 

I mean, if bashing your head against the keyboard and post the result is what you mean by reasearch, then yeah,sure.

Your post is great , but lack of data, comparison, this is sales forum, at least bring more effort, is not like a paragraf will just convince everyone to believe, we need diagram, table, and sales data comparison, without that, all the discussion will just a pointlss debate like kid debate. 



HollyGamer said:
Nautilus said:

I mean, if bashing your head against the keyboard and post the result is what you mean by reasearch, then yeah,sure.

Your post is great , but lack of data, comparison, this is sales forum, at least bring more effort, is not like a paragraf will just convince everyone to believe, we need diagram, table, and sales data comparison, without that, all the discussion will just a pointlss debate like kid debate. 

Look, this is going nowhere.Unless you have actual arguments to counter my initial post, so that we may have an actual discussion, like me and Faelco had(for all the bickering we had, I really like him.He has a really good reasoning), please refrain from posting.Just taking stabs at me is not fun and gets nowhere



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1