By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - (Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

Faelco on 23 October 2016
AZWification said:

I think 1 billion is more likely, mate.

Why stop at 1? More than 7 billions humans on the planet, so 7 billions is the minimum! We know most of us will buy several consoles...

 

Realistically speaking, we don't know enough about it to really predict the sales. 100M is almost impossible though. Depending on the details (price, power, battery...), it could be from 20m to 50m IMO. Don't forget that when it'll get to 10 or 20M, 100M people will already own a PS4 or Xbox One. The market doesn't have an infinite number of buyers (the total number of buyers on this gen will most likely be between 150 and 200M, depending on the Switch's success). Let's not forget the really bad release timing either, in March between the PS4 Pro Christmas and the Xbox Scorpio Chrismas (3 months only before the Scorpio E3). The audience able to increase the Switch's sales is the 3DS audience. As long as the 3DS is alive, the Switch's sales won't be that great. And when the 3DS will die, if they don't release the 3DS2, they'll still need to attract the audience to the Switch instead of the other mobiles/tablets. We're still not sure about the future of handheld Nintendo consoles, they're not clear about it (and the 3DS is their backup plan for now, so they won't be clear about it for a while). I think that a lot of 3DS players won't buy a Switch, like a lot of DS players didn't buy a 3DS...



Around the Network
Jumpin on 23 October 2016

Possibly a lot more than 100 million.

With the combination of the new features, the target audience is a lot wider than any console Nintendo has ever released. And it is hitting that target audience with a really great looking product. My gut says 2017 will be a very big year for Nintendo, but 2018 will be bigger, and 2019 will be their biggest year ever for a single platform release. 2019 will be a Pokemon year.

I predict this platform will have a lot of high fidelity third party games, as well as the largest array of indie titles on any gaming console ever, by far.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Madword on 23 October 2016

There are a number of confusing factors at play.

Japan will probably go crazy for this as they like this kind of concept.
Expect rest of the world to not really care as much, just because most non nintendo fans will be like, meh

I think 30-40m is a reasonable amount that I would expect it to do, I think people thinking 100m, are way off as I think most consoles these days will struggle to do that. Things have changed.



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

Pinkie_pie on 23 October 2016
naruball said:

Seems like a lot of people learned close to nothing from the previous generation and their failed predictions.

I keep hearing how wiiu wasn't well received. That couldn't be further from the truth. Reaction on vgc was extremely positive and there was post after post praising the concept and stating with absolute confidence that it would surpass the wii. That didn't happen and NS selling better than perhaps even ps4 is just crazytalk.

I still remember the threads claiming that it had won Japan before even coming out because it was getting a Monster Hunter game. We all know how that turned out.

Most people simply don't game outside their houses. Things have changed. The sooner people realise this, the better. But something tells me that even if it fails, there will be similar threads in like 5 years arguing that the next ninty console will sell x, because NS wasn't a good concept, it had a stupid name, or whatever. Mark my words.

True this. I remember when nintendo revealed the wii u, nintendo fanboys were all excited and thought it would be as successful as the wii. The switch looks too big for a handheld and perhaps underpowered for third parties to port games over. I think it wont sell more than 40 mil



Rafie on 23 October 2016

I'm tagging...



PSN ID- RayCrocheron82

XBL Gamertag- RAFIE82

NNID- RAFIE82/ Friend Code: SW-6006-2580-8237

YouTube- Rafie Crocheron

Around the Network
sethnintendo on 23 October 2016
AZWification said:

I think 1 billion is more likely, mate.

Are you John Lucas?



thismeintiel on 23 October 2016
naruball said:

Seems like a lot of people learned close to nothing from the previous generation and their failed predictions.

I keep hearing how wiiu wasn't well received. That couldn't be further from the truth. Reaction on vgc was extremely positive and there was post after post praising the concept and stating with absolute confidence that it would surpass the wii. That didn't happen and NS selling better than perhaps even ps4 is just crazytalk.

I still remember the threads claiming that it had won Japan before even coming out because it was getting a Monster Hunter game. We all know how that turned out.

Most people simply don't game outside their houses. Things have changed. The sooner people realise this, the better. But something tells me that even if it fails, there will be similar threads in like 5 years arguing that the next ninty console will sell x, because NS wasn't a good concept, it had a stupid name, or whatever. Mark my words.

And I also remember several posts stating that since "the Wii U, the follow up to the Wii, was doing this poorly, imagine how poorly the PS4 and XBO are going to do." Basically saying console gaming was dead. Look how that turned out.



 

Ariakon on 23 October 2016

That's, um, that's quite optimistic, heh. Not saying it can't happen, saying there's a loooooooonnggg way to go before we can say something like that. 

 

I mean, it was certainly a good start (though I think Youtube view counts are a bit silly, since people can watch videos dozens of times, likely skewing the average quite a bit) and I'm much more optimistic about it than I was the Wii U, but forecasting gargantuan sales at this point is premature. As the OP noted, there are a lot of mitigating factors that could easily come into play. 

 



Asedebck on 23 October 2016
naruball said:

Seems like a lot of people learned close to nothing from the previous generation and their failed predictions.

I keep hearing how wiiu wasn't well received. That couldn't be further from the truth. Reaction on vgc was extremely positive and there was post after post praising the concept and stating with absolute confidence that it would surpass the wii. That didn't happen and NS selling better than perhaps even ps4 is just crazytalk.

I still remember the threads claiming that it had won Japan before even coming out because it was getting a Monster Hunter game. We all know how that turned out.

Most people simply don't game outside their houses. Things have changed. The sooner people realise this, the better. But something tells me that even if it fails, there will be similar threads in like 5 years arguing that the next ninty console will sell x, because NS wasn't a good concept, it had a stupid name, or whatever. Mark my words.

wow your one of the only clever guys on this website! Ill come back in a year and laugh again. Like i already laughed at the people telling me 1 year ago the nx will have market leading ships, get full third party support and so much more



DM235 on 23 October 2016

I can confidently say that it will sell zero units this year (pre-orders don't count).

I can also confidently say that the launch NS SKU will not sell anywhere close to 100 million units.

If the NS launches at $199, it will sell 40+ million units. If it launches at $250 or more, it will sell less than 25 million units (basically just to the Nintendo fanbase). I think this will hold true no matter what the other specs are (hardware specs, online capabilities, battery life, etc).