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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - (Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

potato_hamster on 22 October 2016
JRPGfan said:
Nautilus said:

To your point number 5) I know there were more reasons to the Wii U failure, but if I were to list them all, the text would be bigger.And this point in particular was more revelant to the point I am trying to make.

And another thing that I should have mentioned in the text, is that if Nintendo plays their cards right, they could easily convince the combined instaoll base of the 3DS+ Vita to the Switch, since as a handheld it is very impressive and should get as much support as those devices got.I mean, Nintendo could screw up with baterry life, but Im giving them the benefit of the doubt here.

Now that is a good point :)

Without Sony doing a new handheld, the intire market basically just goes to Nintendo.

That alone is probably worth 14m or so, ontop of the 60m or so 3DS sales there are.

I know the real number will probably be abit smaller than that, but thats potentially 70-75m right there alone from the handheld side of things.

I bet alot of people that own a Wii U also have either a 3DS or Vita, so its probably not going to be much higher than that.

 

Thats the stuff that makes me think maybe if Nintendo does well with the Switch it could reach upwards of those levels (70m+).

Its hard to tell though, and some people here seem really pessimistic about it, while others are very optimisic.

I hope nintendo does do well though.

 

I will say this though.... handheld market is typically more price sensitive than the home console markets.

Alot of this hinges on Nintendo selling the Switch at a reasonable price. 

I have over 40 games for my Vita and PS TV. As uncomfortable as it might be, the Vita still fits in my coat pocket. There's no chance the NS fits in anything smaller than my backpack. I have absolutely no interest in the Switch.

You probably shouldn't make assumptions about Vita owners. If we wanted a Nintendo handheld, we would have alos bought a 3DS wouldn't we?



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daredevil.shark on 22 October 2016

Tagging for future bumps. I don't think it will cross 30 million mark. It will be fun in two years to visit.



Guitarguy on 23 October 2016
bunchanumbers said:
It won't beat 3DS. It might crack 40m. Even that might be lucky. Trying to convince people that a 720p tablet is worth $399 (rumored) will be the hardest sell Nintendo ever does. It won't have access to ios or android. If you look at the reveal video it doesn't show any functionality outside of video games. And according to some here, it won't even have a touchscreen and you will be required to use the controller nubs to navigate the OS.

So why would the average consumer buy a 720p tablet with no touchscreen at such a high price?

THANK YOU!!!!

Some people on the internet seem to think that soccer mums, aunties, grandparents etc will be begging Nintendo to be able to buy the Switch like what happened with the Wii. But the Wii was extremely affordable as it was essentially an up-clocked Gamecube with no expensive large LCD/OLED portable 720P screen. Just because a reveal has X million views in Y amount of days does not correlate to day one or even lifetime sales.

It might be a mega success, it might be an utter failure. You can never really tell. The Dreamcast broke US launch records at the time and that console barely broke the 10 million unit barrier AND it had great third party support.



Pyro as Bill on 23 October 2016
archbrix said:
It's far too early to realistically make a prediction as bold as that because we don't have nearly enough information yet.

But to keep with the spirit of this thread, I'll try one: NS will pass WiiU's LTD install base before the end of 2017.

You never change.  ; )

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4671116



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

thismeintiel on 23 October 2016
bunchanumbers said:
It won't beat 3DS. It might crack 40m. Even that might be lucky. Trying to convince people that a 720p tablet is worth $399 (rumored) will be the hardest sell Nintendo ever does. It won't have access to ios or android. If you look at the reveal video it doesn't show any functionality outside of video games. And according to some here, it won't even have a touchscreen and you will be required to use the controller nubs to navigate the OS.

So why would the average consumer buy a 720p tablet with no touchscreen at such a high price?

This.  I think it would be suicide for Nintendo to not put in a touchscreen, but that hasn't stopped them from making some bad decisions before.  I still think it will end up having one, cause even Nintendo has to know they can kiss casuals goodbye if it doesn't have one.  The biggest thing that will hurt them is they are trying to break into the tablet market, one that already has a clear winner.  And people who prefer to game on tablets also like them for their myriad of non-gaming uses, something the NS won't have.  And with the weaker HW, core gamers won't be interested in it. 

Of course, one of the largest factors is 3rd party support.  I think a lot of devs are going to be taking a wait and see approach to the NS.  If NS sells well, they will probably start supporting it.  However, if it doesn't, it'll be dropped rather quickly.  It doesn't help things that the NS is probably ~1/3 the power of a PS4, meaning devs are going to have to figure out how much they have to trim things back to get their games to run at least decently on the thing.

Nintendo HAS to price this thing for $249, with $199 being the sweet spot.  If they think they can price it at $299-$399, they got some heartache coming their way.



 

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Pyro as Bill on 23 October 2016
Guitarguy said:
bunchanumbers said:
It won't beat 3DS. It might crack 40m. Even that might be lucky. Trying to convince people that a 720p tablet is worth $399 (rumored) will be the hardest sell Nintendo ever does. It won't have access to ios or android. If you look at the reveal video it doesn't show any functionality outside of video games. And according to some here, it won't even have a touchscreen and you will be required to use the controller nubs to navigate the OS.

So why would the average consumer buy a 720p tablet with no touchscreen at such a high price?

THANK YOU!!!!

Some people on the internet seem to think that soccer mums, aunties, grandparents etc will be begging Nintendo to be able to buy the Switch like what happened with the Wii. But the Wii was extremely affordable as it was essentially an up-clocked Gamecube with no expensive large LCD/OLED portable 720P screen. Just because a reveal has X million views in Y amount of days does not correlate to day one or even lifetime sales.

It might be a mega success, it might be an utter failure. You can never really tell. The Dreamcast broke US launch records at the time and that console barely broke the 10 million unit barrier AND it had great third party support.

F*ck the Wii

The 'casuals' loved this too and it smashed Wii's sales



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Guitarguy on 23 October 2016
Pyro as Bill said:
Guitarguy said:

THANK YOU!!!!

Some people on the internet seem to think that soccer mums, aunties, grandparents etc will be begging Nintendo to be able to buy the Switch like what happened with the Wii. But the Wii was extremely affordable as it was essentially an up-clocked Gamecube with no expensive large LCD/OLED portable 720P screen. Just because a reveal has X million views in Y amount of days does not correlate to day one or even lifetime sales.

It might be a mega success, it might be an utter failure. You can never really tell. The Dreamcast broke US launch records at the time and that console barely broke the 10 million unit barrier AND it had great third party support.

F*ck the Wii

The 'casuals' loved this too and it smashed Wii's sales

You are not wrong, but handheld gaming has definately seen a steep decline with the rise of mobile gaming. I think Nintendo is wrong in targeting casuals/non-gamers. I don't think that non-gamers make up a decent percentage of of the PS4's massive success. Casuals and non-gamers(soccer moms, grandparents etc) don't splash out $299+ for a console anymore, at least not in droves of tens of millions. The Wii was an anomaly and prior to tablets and smart phone gaming. I think the majority of people that buy consoles now are people specifically interest in video games as a medium, not someone's aunty.



Platina on 23 October 2016

Tagging, I'll read your thoughts later..

..but I do think it has the potential to hit 100M, whether it will is a different story



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Manlytears on 23 October 2016

tagg



thismeintiel on 23 October 2016
Ryng_Tolu said:

The first impression from internet looks really good. It's nowhere close to what was the Wii U back in 2011, where people didn't even knew was a new console... the youtube trailer is now at over 15 million views in only 3 days, already half of PS4 in almost 4 years.

You do realize that the PS4 got the VAST majority of those views in the first few days, or a week, right?  So, the 4 years things doesn't really mean anything.