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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - (Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

newwil7l said:
Alkibiádēs said:

And how do you think the 3DS would have fared without a Pokémon game?

I don't think it would have fared that much differently.

You think that the 3DS wouldn't have sold worse if it didn't have literally the first or second largest franchise in all of gaming on it?



I bet the Wii U would sell more than 15M LTD by the end of 2015. He bet it would sell less. I lost.

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BillyBong said:
Wyrdness said:

Except those games are system sellers more so than Mario and Zelda, Fire Emblem causes hardware spikes in Japan, Pokemon and AC are 10m sellers on average and Tomodachi shifts 5-6m only Metroid remains to be seen if it can move systems, the Switch can't do Wii U numbers because going by the shipped total by analysts it's already outsold the Wii U.

Seriously?.. you think a strategic rpg will sell consoles?  Animal crossing?  Or even Pokemon?  Andtrust me, I know how big Pokemon is for kids.. I've seen myself the Pokemon craze in Japan, but yes, those games will sell.. but I don't think they'll push much for the console itself.  The Wii u had similar titles too.. Dont think it helped..But like I said, we'll just have to wait and see.

You aren't seriously suggesting that Pokemon isn't a system seller, right?



I bet the Wii U would sell more than 15M LTD by the end of 2015. He bet it would sell less. I lost.

To people who think Pokemon won't be a system-seller for Switch:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_highest-grossing_media_franchises



If we take Last succès console.
DS 154 millions > vs PSP
Wii 101 millions vs ps360
3DS 70 millions vs vita, and vs smart phone / tablet

But switch have noone in front, ps4 or xbox are very différents in concept, smartphone have very différents games.


Switch have to conquere china market (it's a big market that Wii or DS was out)


And we Will have others switch like pro or mini.


Switch make better than wii every where in world.

Switch have already à lot of very good games, we can already say pokemon and Nintendo labo Will be sucess.


Switch sell lots of games and not only Nintendo games, others editors are happy about games selling.



When you expect this factors, switch could make better then wii ps2 and probably DS...



After the Switch presentation last year, my prediction was 70 million. That's probably too low, but I don't want to change it yet. 100 million still seems a bit too high though.



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That depends on two things. First two years sales figures and the sales curve. On average Nintendo systems seem to have their peaks in year one (3DS, Wii U, GCN, N64, GBA) or year two (Wii, SNES). Presuming that they'll reach Switch's 14 million target (the same as 3DS and Wii Y1 figures BTW), it can either follow year-one-peak curve, and in this case we're talking 3DS numbers (70-80 mil) or year-two-peak curve (100+ mil). Of course there's always the 3rd option ... the DS-Lite-factor. It's unlikely, but who knows. Anyways, it definitely has potential to be 100 million seller, but at the present time, it's just an educated guess. Next year though, we should see much clearer picture.



I think it really depends on how much life is in this current generation of consoles and how the industry adapts.

Under the current trends the main industry as whole may not be able to sustain itself with all these 4K/VR projects even with the DLC/Loot Box/Games as Service models attached. The indies and more economic Japanese productions can possibly keep it around for a while but Nintendo may ultimately have to bring out new hardware before the Switch hits 100 even with the current success.

If this generation drags for another 3-4 years, I can see it get close, but I can't help but think either Sony or MS will pull the trigger on a new system before that, especially if it starts looking like the Switch is eating their lunch.



menx64 said:
Calling numbers now it is difficult, but with a solid lineup, I belive 50 millons is not out of the question... Beyond that... It has to be a perfect storm tbh.

Feel the thunder



 

 

We reap what we sow

With the holidays coming, I expect around 51m shipped after Q3 FY2020.



Proud to be the first cool Nintendo fan ever

Number ONE Zelda fan in the Universe

DKCTF didn't move consoles

Prediction: No Zelda HD for Wii U, quietly moved to the succesor

Predictions for Nintendo NX and Mobile


Well, it should be halfway there by the next financial update.