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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Can Splatoon Go on and Sell 3mil Lifetime? (Shipped+Digital) [Update: 2.42mil LTD, 80% There]

Wyrdness said:
Old Splatoon threads are so funny reading through them.

To be fair, even the most optimistic people didn't expect it to be this much of a success.

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VGPolyglot said:
Wyrdness said:
Old Splatoon threads are so funny reading through them.

To be fair, even the most optimistic people didn't expect it to be this much of a success.

They still gave the game a fair shot at 2m and such, the were people prediction W101 numbers at best here while others were telling people 2-3m is not being realistic.

Well, I said it was possible, so I wasn't wrong, but yeah not a strong opinion! Though I think in another thread I did say it'd be the next Mario Kart/Smash. What really matters though is that I was spot on with how amazing the game is!

Not going to lie, this game blew away all my expectations of it being a modest success at best and became a smash hit.

But give props to where they belong, Japan fell deeply in love with this game and made it into the best performing non major franchise console game of the generation in Japan.

JWeinCom said:
Probably not. It's a niche sort of game, but it should have good word of mouth. A million would be a pretty big success. I'd guess 750K.

750K.  That guy's a fucking moron.

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And now the sequel has passed 10 million on the Switch.

Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020

PAOerfulone said:
And now the sequel has passed 10 million on the Switch.

The game went platinum and this thread pure gold!

Hurts to see some of the early opinions.

Nirvana_Nut85 said:
tbone51 said:
over halfway there in 33 days!!!

You do realize that it is now your oblighation, once the NX is released, to predict a high number that no one will believe and to have a thread like this months later proving everyone else is wrong!

tbone in a nutshell now, best prediction ever!

I remember at Neogaf people were doubting Splatoon, I didn't.

In fact, I ended up being slightly wrong as Splatoon didn't make the Top 5 best selling Wii U games but that's mainly because Nintendo pretty much discontinued the Wii U much earlier than I anticipated. Splatoon ended up the 6th best selling game on the Wii U, but it's looking like Splatoon 2 will more than double Wii U lifetime sales by the end of 2020. I think there is also a small chance that there is another upgrade planned for Splatoon 2 before Splatoon 3 is announced. Thus sales might see considerable YoY growth during Switch's peak year thus far. 

I expect Splatoon 3 will actually see even more growth, as the Devs will have a lot more time to prototype new ideas for the SP, PvP, and PvE. Also, Nintendo is hopefully working on licensing the rights for Splatoon for either spin-off, mobile game, manga, films, or anime. Splatoon devs had to work very quickly to get Splatoon 2 ready for the Switch launch year. Right now with Animal Crossing a decent part of the team is likely working on Splatoon 3, while there is a good possibility that Splatoon 3 will only enter full production next year as the biggest Animal Crossing updates are finalized. I'm sure there was always a small team working on Splatoon 3 since Splatoon 2 finished its planned updates but outside of having an idea about the overall vision for 3 they are still very early into the development cycle. 

This is why I think it makes sense for them this year to focus on finalizing some prototypes that were never fully fleshed out. For example, there was a teaser regarding Salmon Run in 2020 by their Twitter account. There are also two modes that never made it into the final game. And finally, there is a great opportunity for some cross-franchise promotion via New Horizon. Splatoon is actually popular among a pretty wide demographic in Japan as both boys and girls play it.

if you fire up the Wii U there is actually still a sizeable population of hardcore players in Japan still playing the first game(I'm the highest rank and can find a game in under a minute). The Switch made Splatoon accessible in Japan but the game hasn't reached its full potential. I think launching Splatoon 3 whenever Nintendo is ready with the Switch 2 is the ideal plan. This will give Splatoon 2 four-to-five years on the market before the new game. Allowing the new game to feel fresher, as Splatoon 2 was made in just two years in order to capitalize on the popularity of Splatoon in Japan which they couldn't really do on a dying platform. It was never going to achieve its full potential on the Wii U but the concept was born there and to me, it's the best Wii U game with Breath of the Wild

Now Nintendo doesn't have pressure to release a new Splatoon game, and this is why they need to think about another bigger update in order to attract some of the new owners who bought a Switch due to Animal Crossing. Overall I think Splatoon 2 will end up with >15M units lifetime sales. Right now we are close to 11M, by the end of the year, we should get to 12M - leaving an additional 3M to be sold in 2021/2022/2023. 

Last edited by noshten - on 08 August 2020