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Forums - Gaming Discussion - FACTS vs. FICTION – Volume 1

So that's it isn't it? This "Unification" you keep spewing about. That's your key. The Wii U is going to start outselling the PS4 and Xbox One because in your head, you think you're going to be able to combine 3DS sales with Wii U sales as one cohesive unified console. That's your ace in the hole. Wii U sales aren't just Wii U sales, they're Wii U + 3DS sales!. 3DS sales aren't just 3DS sales! They're 3DS + Wii U sales!

"The Wii U isn't at 9.4 Million world wide, the Nintendo Unified platform is at 61.4 Million world wide! That's more than the PS4 at 21.1 million, and Xbox One at 12 Million. Nintendo is Dominating the home console space!"

That's (more or less) what you're waiting to say, isn't it?

Too bad that's not happening this generation, if at all, for a variety of technical reasons that I won't care to dive into right now, But let's say that's what Nintendo does next generation. If it does, it signals Nintendo's exit from the home console market. Period. That is not a home console, as what you will have is a 3DS successor with a TV dock that allows you to connect extenal controllers, much like a docking station for a laptop. While that's a nice idea and all, and will undoubtedly lead to Nintendo cannibalizing its own sales (families only have to buy one console instead of two for "the complete Nintedo experience), make video games much more expenive to develop for such a platform. A portable game plus support for multiple controllers, higher resolution displays etc. is expensive, nevermind the cost of the hardware itself, educating your customers etc. It won't be nearly as successful as you think it will.

Don't give yourself credit. When I said "encyclopedic knowledge", I was referring to your ability to use the internet and gather facts into these long diatribes you take weeks to produce. No one actually believes you know all of this off the top of your head.

However, nowhere did I say the PS4 will perform at PS2 levels sales wise (nice straw man!), but I would not be surprised if the sales numbers for the PS4 and X1 combined were similar to the sales numbers of the PS2 and XB combined at the end of this generation, and the sales of the Wii U end up similar to that of the Gamecube - pathetic.

Edit: Also, the PS4 Outsold the X1 and Wii-U combined last month, which apparently is impressive to you (but not that hard when the Wii U is selling so terribly). So much for that sales explosion?





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I can't wait for your TheDrill-like post telling us you were actually a Sega fan the whole time.

 

Also, you've still never properly explained why being the most powerful console in a given generation makes it impossible to have the most sales that generation.  What you have is a correlation without any reason why the two things would be related, which means you have nothing.  It'd be the same as presenting this graph.

 

and simply stating that if you eat too much margarine you'll get divorced without explaining why, you'd get laughed out of any serious science and math educated crowd.  



...

Torillian said:

I can't wait for your TheDrill-like post telling us you were actually a Sega fan the whole time.

 

Also, you've still never properly explained why being the most powerful console in a given generation makes it impossible to have the most sales that generation.  What you have is a correlation without any reason why the two things would be related, which means you have nothing.  It'd be the same as presenting this graph.

 

and simply stating that if you eat too much margarine you'll get divorced without explaining why, you'd get laughed out of any serious science and math educated crowd.  

I moved onto spreadable butter myself and I'm still married, so there could be some truth in your findings!!!

Agree with you tho, said it months ago in this thread, that it'd be like trying to suggest that there being sinks in houses causing house fires because they're in there almost 99% of the time.



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Tachikoma said:
Two can play at that game.

Fiction: ps3 has no gaems
Fact: playstation has won every generation of home console it has released in except for the 7th gen where a late start and high price left it playing catch up, every generation a decent priced home console has released alongside another consoles launch it has won, thus it will win 8th gen too.

See how silly that is?

So i leave you with this.
Fiction: ability to tell the future from abitrarily cherry picked hindsights
Fact: anything can happen and often does.


Even with the PS3 playing catch up, it still snared #2 WW. Imagine that: the Xbox 360 had a year head start over both consoles, and still finished in last.



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Azuren said:
Tachikoma said:
Two can play at that game.

Fiction: ps3 has no gaems
Fact: playstation has won every generation of home console it has released in except for the 7th gen where a late start and high price left it playing catch up, every generation a decent priced home console has released alongside another consoles launch it has won, thus it will win 8th gen too.

See how silly that is?

So i leave you with this.
Fiction: ability to tell the future from abitrarily cherry picked hindsights
Fact: anything can happen and often does.


Even with the PS3 playing catch up, it still snared #2 WW. Imagine that: the Xbox 360 had a year head start over both consoles, and still finished in last.


If you look at it just with what the 360 did tho not in a race scenario it did go from the first Xbox system which sold just 24million units and created a system which sold 84m+ systems, 3x as popular as its predecessor, X360 may have finished last in its "race" but it was a great success in what it achieved.



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johnlucas said:
potato_hamster said:
So much delusion going on by John Lucas it's not even funny. Having an encyclopedic knowledge of the history of Nintendo does not justify the the heaps of illogical nonsense and double standards you've spewed all over this thread,

If Vita is dead based on sales then the Wii U must be dead too since its outselling the Wii U. But yet sales are going to magically pick up for the Wii U simply because you can't imagine a world where it doesn't.. Since you made the original post the Wii U has lost even further ground. What specific Nintendo action, whether it be a price drop, video game release, whatever is going to lead to the Wii U actually outselling the PS4 or Xbox One globally from that point onwards, or is it pure magic?


Ah, potato_hamster. Sorry for my delay on this reply.
I was busy getting my Club Nintendo coins together before the deadline & also doing my best to finally beat The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword.
Finally beat it this past Saturday (April 18th) & WOW what a game! Can't WAIT for Zelda Wii U now!

Anyhow back to the point.
I not only have an encyclopedic knowledge of the history of Nintendo but I have an encyclopedic knowledge of the videogame industry in general.
I'm adding new pages to that encyclopedia all the time.

Wii U is selling slow no doubt about it. My milestones predicted in the UNITY post are definitely delayed because of it.
My short-terms have definitely missed but my long-term still stands.

Don't EVER think you can call an entire generation on a snapshot of its first years.
If you had the encyclopedic knowledge of videogaming that I have, you would think back to the 4th generation where the more powerful SNES took YEARS to overcome the Sega Genesis/Mega Drive.
If Sega didn't flake out at the last minute with all that Sega CD/32X/Saturn mess, they would have won the 4th generation.
We didn't get to see weekly/monthly sales charts back then. We were just kids who played the games.
It was a simpler time where we didn't obsess about system specs & instead focused on which console had the better games.

See in hindsight the SNES is looked back on as part of the Golden Age of gaming.
But in truth, SNES was ALWAYS in the shadow of something else its entire life.
For its first 3 years, the SNES was in the shadow of the NES.
They were still putting out major NES games in the SNES's early life.
(Mega Man 6 came out in 1994!)

Nintendo's output on the SNES was pretty bare actually in those early years.
In 1991, Nintendo published launch titles F-Zero, Pilotwings, Sim City, & Super Mario World.
All that came out on August 23, 1991 in the U.S.
On November 2, 1991, Nintendo published Super Tennis. That was it. Its big holiday title for that year. Not really much of an anchor there.
1992 brings us Super Scope 6 (February), The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past (April), Super Soccer (May), Super Play Action Football (August), Mario Paint (August), Super Mario Kart (September), Battle Clash (October).
That certainly pads 1991's lineup & there's a lot of legendary games on that list but SNES was STILL fighting to get out of the shadow of the NES in that year.

And in 1993, Nintendo hardly put out ANYTHING!
All we got was Star Fox (March), Vegas Stakes (May), Super Mario All-Stars (August), Yoshi's Safari (September), NHL Stanley Cup (November).
Only 2 titles on that list have any real resonance & one of them is a remade compilation of NES games!
The other one came out early in the year! Star Fox is supposed to hold the SNES down for the entire year???

But 1993 was the year that NES finally started giving way.
That's the year they released the NES Top Loader which resembled the SNES design.
Yet as soon as SNES was finally able to get out of NES's shadow they soon enter another shadow called the 5th Generation which was being kickstarted by Atari Jaguar & the 3DO that year of 1993.
Also everybody knew that Sony was coming with their console.

While the SNES was in the NES's shadow, the Genesis was wiping the floor with them in the overall market.
By the start of 1992, Sega Genesis owned 65% of the 4th Generation home console market.
Nintendo had a trickle of strong games coming out but not in enough volume to keep up with Genesis.
The tug-of-war over Street Fighter II certainly boosted Nintendo but Mortal Kombat & the censored blood hurt them.
And that weak 1993 output would not be enough to hold down the fort.

But what happened in SNES's 4th year, 1994?
What happened in that year where Sega would enter the 5th Generation race with the Saturn & Sony would finally unleash their PlayStation?
Nintendo dropped the bombshell called Donkey Kong Country.
THAT was the game that caused the SNES to rally in the SNES vs. Genesis fight.
It extended the life of the console even in the midst of all these new 32-bit 5th Generation competitors.
And with that game fueling it, SNES was able to run the clock out on Genesis & eek out that 49 million sales victory for the 4th Gen.

There's a reason why SNES sold LESS than NES's near 62 million & that's because the console was constantly under a shadow.
In truth, the SNES's lifespan was cut short. That's why in Japan they were still selling new Super Famicom games all the way up to 1999.
Games like Fire Emblem: Thracia 776. That's why Super Famicom's Satellaview ran all the way into the year 2000.

Every generation plays out differently.
You're expecting a 6th generation PS2-style rout for this generation but I wouldn't count on that with a desperate Microsoft in the mix.
Not to mention a cagey sly Nintendo waiting to unleash a trump card at any given notice.
Just like they did in 1994 with Donkey Kong Country.
Just like they did in 1996 with Pocket Monsters (Pokémon).

Unlike the 4th generation, there are no new incoming competitors to the console market to force a jump to a new generation.
So Nintendo has plenty of time to restore their lost ground.
The Zelda push back signals confidence to me. They are sure enough on Wii U's chances that they can make 2015 successful even WITHOUT it.
They have MANY trump cards left to play & we're gonna see some of them at the coming E3 this year.

They will hold their ground on the price so as not to make a Gamecube-style mistake.
It will not be just ONE game that moves the system but a NETWORK of games that moves the system.
Just like it was for the once-struggling 3DS that everybody now praises.
Wii U is nowhere near dead like Vita is & one reason for that is because it is PROFITABLE.
I don't see Vitas on store shelves anymore but I still see Wii U's. There's a definite difference.
Especially when you hear public statements from Sony that they are no longer making games for Vita but Nintendo insisting that games are still being made for Wii U.

You mentioned XBox One.
Keep in mind that about this time last year XBox One was selling about as bad as Wii U is selling now.
Month after month we heard reports of PS4 outselling both Wii U & XBox One COMBINED.
Then all of a sudden BAM sales explosion. Now it's competitive on the sales race with PS4.
If it happened just that quick on XBox One which was almost universally hated at E3 2013, why don't you think the same can't happen to Wii U?

I know history very well but I also know the structure of this business.
That's why I can be so sure on my statements.
The 8th Generation has just begun. As you will hear me say in Volume 3, there are no 5 year console cycles.
As ThaBlackBaron from YouTube would say 'This is not a sprint, this is a marathon'.
At the end of the race I know the outcome. Nintendo UNIFYING the gaming world under them.
And that UNIFICATION guaranteeing their #1 spot.

Don't EVER think you can call this entire generation on a snapshot of its first years.
The Most Powerful Console NEVER Wins. There ARE no exceptions to this rule.
Games sell consoles. Not power.

John Lucas


If games sell consoles, then what the hell has been going on with PS4? And why is it winning so hard if the strongest never wins?

And yeah, the Xbox did start getting a little competitive with PS4. Because it was cheaper and came with games. And now we're right back where we started with PS4 crushing Wii U and XB1 combined. Not just a little more: we're talking absolute domination.

The reason is the XB1 and Wii U only being their A games during the holidays, but it will be too late this holiday season. Another rule of the trade I'm sure you're aware of is 50% market share causes am explosion of interest. When Ps4 crosses that line and sells more total units since release than both its competitors combined, it will be on the news. People will realize "Aw damn, I guess I'm buying a PS4", and sales will explode again. You can count on sales for Wii U to remain constant[ly low], but the XB1 will be on a Halo IV drip until people get tired of Halo.

But it doesn't matter, does it? People will still argue facts and delude themselves into thinking "this is temporary, Wii60 will rise again!". But it's not. PS4 has already won, and if it could talk, it would quote Kentaro to Wii U and XB1:

 

"You're already dead."



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ganoncrotch said:
Azuren said:


Even with the PS3 playing catch up, it still snared #2 WW. Imagine that: the Xbox 360 had a year head start over both consoles, and still finished in last.


If you look at it just with what the 360 did tho not in a race scenario it did go from the first Xbox system which sold just 24million units and created a system which sold 84m+ systems, 3x as popular as its predecessor, X360 may have finished last in its "race" but it was a great success in what it achieved.


You're right, nearly flipped in 6th generation and hitting 84+ million the next is impressive. And it had its influence on the market by showing what online can do for you.



Watch me stream games and hunt trophies on my Twitch channel!

Check out my Twitch Channel!:

www.twitch.tv/AzurenGames