johnlucas said:
potato_hamster said: So much delusion going on by John Lucas it's not even funny. Having an encyclopedic knowledge of the history of Nintendo does not justify the the heaps of illogical nonsense and double standards you've spewed all over this thread, If Vita is dead based on sales then the Wii U must be dead too since its outselling the Wii U. But yet sales are going to magically pick up for the Wii U simply because you can't imagine a world where it doesn't.. Since you made the original post the Wii U has lost even further ground. What specific Nintendo action, whether it be a price drop, video game release, whatever is going to lead to the Wii U actually outselling the PS4 or Xbox One globally from that point onwards, or is it pure magic? |
Ah, potato_hamster. Sorry for my delay on this reply. I was busy getting my Club Nintendo coins together before the deadline & also doing my best to finally beat The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword. Finally beat it this past Saturday (April 18th) & WOW what a game! Can't WAIT for Zelda Wii U now!
Anyhow back to the point. I not only have an encyclopedic knowledge of the history of Nintendo but I have an encyclopedic knowledge of the videogame industry in general. I'm adding new pages to that encyclopedia all the time.
Wii U is selling slow no doubt about it. My milestones predicted in the UNITY post are definitely delayed because of it. My short-terms have definitely missed but my long-term still stands.
Don't EVER think you can call an entire generation on a snapshot of its first years. If you had the encyclopedic knowledge of videogaming that I have, you would think back to the 4th generation where the more powerful SNES took YEARS to overcome the Sega Genesis/Mega Drive. If Sega didn't flake out at the last minute with all that Sega CD/32X/Saturn mess, they would have won the 4th generation. We didn't get to see weekly/monthly sales charts back then. We were just kids who played the games. It was a simpler time where we didn't obsess about system specs & instead focused on which console had the better games.
See in hindsight the SNES is looked back on as part of the Golden Age of gaming. But in truth, SNES was ALWAYS in the shadow of something else its entire life. For its first 3 years, the SNES was in the shadow of the NES. They were still putting out major NES games in the SNES's early life. (Mega Man 6 came out in 1994!)
Nintendo's output on the SNES was pretty bare actually in those early years. In 1991, Nintendo published launch titles F-Zero, Pilotwings, Sim City, & Super Mario World. All that came out on August 23, 1991 in the U.S. On November 2, 1991, Nintendo published Super Tennis. That was it. Its big holiday title for that year. Not really much of an anchor there. 1992 brings us Super Scope 6 (February), The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past (April), Super Soccer (May), Super Play Action Football (August), Mario Paint (August), Super Mario Kart (September), Battle Clash (October). That certainly pads 1991's lineup & there's a lot of legendary games on that list but SNES was STILL fighting to get out of the shadow of the NES in that year.
And in 1993, Nintendo hardly put out ANYTHING! All we got was Star Fox (March), Vegas Stakes (May), Super Mario All-Stars (August), Yoshi's Safari (September), NHL Stanley Cup (November). Only 2 titles on that list have any real resonance & one of them is a remade compilation of NES games! The other one came out early in the year! Star Fox is supposed to hold the SNES down for the entire year???
But 1993 was the year that NES finally started giving way. That's the year they released the NES Top Loader which resembled the SNES design. Yet as soon as SNES was finally able to get out of NES's shadow they soon enter another shadow called the 5th Generation which was being kickstarted by Atari Jaguar & the 3DO that year of 1993. Also everybody knew that Sony was coming with their console.
While the SNES was in the NES's shadow, the Genesis was wiping the floor with them in the overall market. By the start of 1992, Sega Genesis owned 65% of the 4th Generation home console market. Nintendo had a trickle of strong games coming out but not in enough volume to keep up with Genesis. The tug-of-war over Street Fighter II certainly boosted Nintendo but Mortal Kombat & the censored blood hurt them. And that weak 1993 output would not be enough to hold down the fort.
But what happened in SNES's 4th year, 1994? What happened in that year where Sega would enter the 5th Generation race with the Saturn & Sony would finally unleash their PlayStation? Nintendo dropped the bombshell called Donkey Kong Country. THAT was the game that caused the SNES to rally in the SNES vs. Genesis fight. It extended the life of the console even in the midst of all these new 32-bit 5th Generation competitors. And with that game fueling it, SNES was able to run the clock out on Genesis & eek out that 49 million sales victory for the 4th Gen.
There's a reason why SNES sold LESS than NES's near 62 million & that's because the console was constantly under a shadow. In truth, the SNES's lifespan was cut short. That's why in Japan they were still selling new Super Famicom games all the way up to 1999. Games like Fire Emblem: Thracia 776. That's why Super Famicom's Satellaview ran all the way into the year 2000.
Every generation plays out differently. You're expecting a 6th generation PS2-style rout for this generation but I wouldn't count on that with a desperate Microsoft in the mix. Not to mention a cagey sly Nintendo waiting to unleash a trump card at any given notice. Just like they did in 1994 with Donkey Kong Country. Just like they did in 1996 with Pocket Monsters (Pokémon).
Unlike the 4th generation, there are no new incoming competitors to the console market to force a jump to a new generation. So Nintendo has plenty of time to restore their lost ground. The Zelda push back signals confidence to me. They are sure enough on Wii U's chances that they can make 2015 successful even WITHOUT it. They have MANY trump cards left to play & we're gonna see some of them at the coming E3 this year.
They will hold their ground on the price so as not to make a Gamecube-style mistake. It will not be just ONE game that moves the system but a NETWORK of games that moves the system. Just like it was for the once-struggling 3DS that everybody now praises. Wii U is nowhere near dead like Vita is & one reason for that is because it is PROFITABLE. I don't see Vitas on store shelves anymore but I still see Wii U's. There's a definite difference. Especially when you hear public statements from Sony that they are no longer making games for Vita but Nintendo insisting that games are still being made for Wii U.
You mentioned XBox One. Keep in mind that about this time last year XBox One was selling about as bad as Wii U is selling now. Month after month we heard reports of PS4 outselling both Wii U & XBox One COMBINED. Then all of a sudden BAM sales explosion. Now it's competitive on the sales race with PS4. If it happened just that quick on XBox One which was almost universally hated at E3 2013, why don't you think the same can't happen to Wii U?
I know history very well but I also know the structure of this business. That's why I can be so sure on my statements. The 8th Generation has just begun. As you will hear me say in Volume 3, there are no 5 year console cycles. As ThaBlackBaron from YouTube would say 'This is not a sprint, this is a marathon'. At the end of the race I know the outcome. Nintendo UNIFYING the gaming world under them. And that UNIFICATION guaranteeing their #1 spot.
Don't EVER think you can call this entire generation on a snapshot of its first years. The Most Powerful Console NEVER Wins. There ARE no exceptions to this rule. Games sell consoles. Not power.
John Lucas
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