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Forums - Sales Discussion - November 2013 NPD Thread! Everything is in the OP!

If you include Canada the VGC WIIU numbers look spot on though a 400k difference in 3DS numbers is hard to account for with Canada alone though the device is very popular here. (We have four in our house and every friend of my daughter has one as anecdotes) Say 80 to 160 k of that difference makes sense.



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Boutros said:
The OP has been updated with all the data!

Thanks.... 360 seems to be the only console accurate here



benji232 said:
Lawlight said:
benji232 said:
Lawlight said:
3DS overtracked by 400K? Looks like I'll be winning my bets, afterall :)

You still never responded me in that thread for the bet. I guess you chose to ignore it afterall or you can still accept the bet here: Nintendo will ship 15M units in their fiscal year ending march 31st 2014. The bet is still up for grabs if you want.

I didn't see your post. 15M? That's a very, very, very safe bet for you. That's a little bit more than the best PS3 year.

Well here http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5868713. You even said it yourself multiple times that you didn"t believe that they would sell 15M units. Also as I said in the other post, you can't just use Q4 2013 shipments and add them up with Q1-Q3 2013 shipments, it just does not work like that. 

 

We're going to be using Q4 2012, Q1-Q3 2013 so January to December. It's good that you think that Nintendo can ship 9.87M 3DSs during October to December.



 

VGC was more accurate than Wedbush (Pachter) on all accounts this month.

Pretty good tracking if you ask me.



3DS and wii massivly overtract!



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Lawlight said:
benji232 said:
Lawlight said:
benji232 said:
Lawlight said:
3DS overtracked by 400K? Looks like I'll be winning my bets, afterall :)

You still never responded me in that thread for the bet. I guess you chose to ignore it afterall or you can still accept the bet here: Nintendo will ship 15M units in their fiscal year ending march 31st 2014. The bet is still up for grabs if you want.

I didn't see your post. 15M? That's a very, very, very safe bet for you. That's a little bit more than the best PS3 year.

Well here http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5868713. You even said it yourself multiple times that you didn"t believe that they would sell 15M units. Also as I said in the other post, you can't just use Q4 2013 shipments and add them up with Q1-Q3 2013 shipments, it just does not work like that. 

 

We're going to be using Q4 2012, Q1-Q3 2013 so January to December. It's good that you think that Nintendo can ship 9.87M 3DSs during October to December.

You really don't get it? I said it multiple times, you can not combine a quarter of 1 fiscal year and 3 quarters of anothr and call that a year of shipments. So let me repeat it once again for you, there are 2 possibilities for bets here:

1. We use VGC/NPD/Famitsu/MC for sales data (Sales, NOT shipments).

2. We use Nintendo's shipments for fiscal year 2014.

You choose between the 2. 



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

benji232 said:

You really don't get it? I said it multiple times, you can not combine a quarter of 1 fiscal year and 3 quarters of anothr and call that a year of shipments. So let me repeat it once again for you, there are 2 possibilities for bets here:

1. We use VGC/NPD/Famitsu/MC for sales data (Sales, NOT shipments).

2. We use Nintendo's shipments for fiscal year 2014.

You choose between the 2. 

Yes, you can - you haven't stated why we cannot. Nintendo's quarterly shipments are the only actual numbers that we have worldwide, afterall.



Lawlight said:
benji232 said:

You really don't get it? I said it multiple times, you can not combine a quarter of 1 fiscal year and 3 quarters of anothr and call that a year of shipments. So let me repeat it once again for you, there are 2 possibilities for bets here:

1. We use VGC/NPD/Famitsu/MC for sales data (Sales, NOT shipments).

2. We use Nintendo's shipments for fiscal year 2014.

You choose between the 2. 

Yes, you can - you haven't stated why we cannot. Nintendo's quarterly shipments are the only actual numbers that we have worldwide, afterall.

I didn't think i'd have to explain for you (thought you would have known this aready) but here we go. The reason why you can't combine 2 quarters of 2 different fiscal years and call that a *full year* is due to the phenomenon that has already been proved to have happened (Selling more then what they shipped), that phenomenon is called overshipment. Therefor, the 3DS could have sold 15M+ units in 2013. However, since your bet would be using shipment numbers, then, they might have needed to sell their excess of 3DS in Q4 2013 which would falsify the numbers and therefor falsify the result of our bet. 

Now I know what your first comeback is going to be "Well, they might have overshipped in Q4 2013 as well which makes you argument invalid?". To answer that concern briefly, usually, Q4 2013 (Or our Q1 2014) mainly consists of selling the remaining of your stock from Q3 2013 (or our Q4 2013) and then some. Meaning, sure, there might be a small disperency, but it won't be anywhere as big as the one between Q3 and Q4. This is why Q4 is mostly all the time one of the slowest selling periods for Nintendo or any other company. EDIT: (In terms of shipments).

Since we are both looking to do a fair bet, we want to use the most accurate data to know who the winner is. Which, since you seem so reluctant to use the sell through data that we have, then the most accurate data to use would be the full FY 2014 of Nintendo. 



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

Boutros said:

 

VGC was more accurate than Wedbush (Pachter) on all accounts this month.

Pretty good tracking if you ask me.

Wii wasn't outselling PSV after all! :O



allenmaher said:
If you include Canada the VGC WIIU numbers look spot on though a 400k difference in 3DS numbers is hard to account for with Canada alone though the device is very popular here. (We have four in our house and every friend of my daughter has one as anecdotes) Say 80 to 160 k of that difference makes sense.

Why would you add Canada? Both VGC and NPD track USA independently (and thus can be directly compared).