Do not forget that MS was the first (ok technically sega was) to have a Online infrastructe with the First Xbox. When you start something you are free to do what you want to see how the market takes it so MS created Gold for Online play. Do not forget this was done with the first Xbox not 360. Online consoles and services today are nothing new and competition are bringing out new services that competes with MS stragety. I will be surprise if GOLD remains the same or continue to tie online multiplayer but we will see.
"And as I said before the possibilities to capitalize on an always connected Xbox are endless. Even if they sell 25 Million less due to always on. Customer lock down and selling personalized TV Ads to the Cable provider could easily make up for the difference. Kinect could just choose ads based on general information about number of persons (children) without even sending specific data somewhere this wouldn't even break any laws but could be marketed for absurd amounts of money and its only possible if the console is always on."
This would only depend on if MS is looking to prevent the reach of their console to a lot off different markets. There isn't any benefit to only online outside of DRM. MS get everything you just mentioned without the need for Only online. Making your console so it cannot be played without a internet connection would be a huge risk.
"Your point on if the subscription runs out on games you purchase and you cannot play them anymore unless you renew will not happen because the market today does not support such a thing and consumers would not as well."
Assumption. Maybe MS doesn't see it that way see Gold. Seems like the Market did support paying for a traditionally free feature. Why won't ghe market support an always on console which requires a subscription to work ? Also MS is taking probably babysteps maybe:
Lets just say that both of our positions are assumptions. I will base my assumption on what the market supports today and what the competition supports today. For MS to go your route they would have to convince people that they do not own their content and must go through MS first which any competition would have a respond.
You mean like paying for online ? And as I said MS can gain alot through always on. Even if they lose some marketshare to Sony. You think MS is satisfied with the puny consol market ? Sony and MS always wanted full control over the formats and media consumption of the people using it. Always on is the next logical step. Sony is just more gentle about it (if MS follows through).
Yes, MS and Sony wants to be the big dog in the living room. The key is you have not presented a case where MS can sell this type of plan over what the competition is doing or will do. MS want to rule the living room but you cannot rule the living room unless you can get there. What does MS offer that will get them into the living room above their competition if they do not provide important functionality that their competitor will.
I am not saying that MS will not have a online only console or they will not go in that direction. What I am saying is I have not see any evidence that they could or would go that route now. If MS could sell the nextbox for 99 bucks and Sony comes in at 400 to 500 then that would be something where MS could do an only online console. If MS can sell the nextBox to cable companies and they are given to users just like any box then that would be a good case for an online only box.
Actually I can see MS restricting the cable/ sub next box to online only and allowing people to purchase a nextbox at full retail price that does not have this restrictions.
Always On is the only way to tie your customers to you permanently also always on makes sure every box is guaranteed to be connectedand marketable data for personalized Video adds through Kinect can be sold that way.
MS could easily make a 99 Console and Gold pricier and mandatory. Or maybe even give it away for free.
Its just a question of if MS wants to do it mandatory.
Obviously everything I said is purely speculation but its a real possibility and nobody knows if the market would accept or deny such a model because it wasn't done before in that way.
PS: Sony also had an online service with the PS2. MS Infrastructure is based mostly on Matchmaking servers and hardly an expense that justifies a paid membership.