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I have the predictions from and for all of you today.

Box-Office Oracle: Can 'Rise of the Planet of the Apes' Stamp Out 'Final Destination 5's Hopes for Weekend #1?


Taking a risk with a bold #1 pick

Four new releases to predict this weekend. Usually that much "newness" makes for tough calls, but these newbies fit nicely into predictable demographics, so we should be pretty dialed in this weekend. Let's break it down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 2 Weeks In A Row
I originally had Final Destination 5 taking the crown, based on FD4's numbers plus a little sequel sweetener. Instead, based on tracking, it seems as though people are over it. But we'll get to FD5 in a moment, for now let's talk Chimps.

The budget was $93m, and it has now hit that in worldwide cume. Looking at this against Cowboys vs. Aliens, you've got to wonder where Cowboys spent the extra $70m. Rise had a CGI character in the entire movie! Was newish director Rupert Wyatt just not on the same budgetary level as Favreau? Whatever the case, 20th Century Fox has to be delighted. Solid critical reviews, an A- CinemaScore, and they've set up the franchise again. We crush Fox decisions plenty around these parts, but you've got to admit when a studio hits a solid triple.

Prediction: $31.129 million

An entertaining film that looks like it will get bitten by sequel fatigue and 3-D avoidance. But they make them on the cheap, and there is a built-in fanbase, so it can't fall too far down the list.
Prediction: $23.2 million
This is a rising stock because it fits a few demographic niches that have been mostly ignored this summer. I speak of older adults, women, and African-Americans. This could hit $20m this weekend. No, seriously. It has an A+ CinemaScore after yesterday's $5.5 million opening.
Prediction: $16.32 million
I'm not seeing it until tonight, but I don't think it has that Zombieland magic. It's an R-rated comedy, but it looks to be missing the action beats.
Prediction: $15.6 million
$135m worldwide and rising, it will hit $100m domestically this weekend with ease.
Prediction: $13.04 million
A tough film to peg, do you throw Bieber dollars at this one? Ultimately, the lack of theater counts will keep it from the top five.
Prediction: $11.7 million
They are going to need a massive international push to grind out a profit. I don't see it.
Prediction: $8.18 million
I think even Warner Bros. would admit this didn't fully work out.
Prediction: $7.93 million
$253m on a $140m production budget. That's not amazing, but they set up Avengers effectively with that number.
Prediction: $6.65 million
The budget was $52m, largely due to all the CGI needed to put Ryan Reynolds into Jason Bateman's body. The film has earned $17m so far. Universal swings and misses.
Prediction: $6.5 million

How say you? Cheeky enough to put Final Destination 5 at the top? Do you like Rise of the Planet of the Apes to bleed a little more on its holdover number? Four new releases, predictions away!



Box office preview: 'Rise of the Planet of the Apes' should hold off four new movies

Image Credit: Twentieth Century Fox

Hollywood is presenting a cornucopia of choices this weekend, as four new movies are heading into theaters. Each film is targeting a different audience segment: horror buffs (Final Destination 5), adult women (The Help), fans of raunchy comedies (30 Minutes or Less), and, well, Gleeks (Glee: The 3D Concert Movie). But despite all of these choices, last week’s champion, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, will most likely come out on top once again. Here are my predictions for the weekend: 

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes: $27 million

Audiences are going bananas for this well-reviewed action film, which opened to a better-than-expected $54.8 million last week. With an “A-” rating from CinemaScore graders and a strong 8.0 score on IMDb, Apes should benefit from positive word of mouth this weekend. It’s typical for a summer action movie to drop 55 to 60 percent its second weekend, but Apes should hold up a bit better than that. Instead, look for a drop of around 50 percent.

2. Final Destination 5: $23 million

Each of the Final Destination movies has debuted stronger than the entry before it, with openings of $10 million, $16 million, $19.2 million, and $27.4 million. But I think that trend will stop with Final Destination 5. For one thing, all of the prior Final Destination movies were released three years apart from one another, but this new R-rated movie arrives just two years after 2009′s The Final Destination. (So much for The Final Destination being the final Final Destination.) Second, The Final Destination was the horror series’ first 3-D offering, and it was released during the apex of the 3-D craze. Since then, 3-D has lost some of its sheen — at least domestically. Those who do see Final Destination 5 will probably do so in 3-D, but the third dimension no longer has that new-car smell that likely attracted some folks to The Final Destination in the first place.

3. The Help: $20 million

This PG-13 drama, based on Kathryn Stockett’s bestselling novel, opened on Wednesday to a solid $5.5 million. Most impressively, the $25 million picture scored a rare “A+” rating from CinemaScore audiences, which means word of mouth should be excellent. And Fandango is reporting that, as of this writing, The Help is accounting for 52 percent of its online ticket sales. The movie should skew toward adult women: According to CinemaScore, 83 percent of the film’s Wednesday audience was female and 78 percent was at least 25 years old. Female moviegoers have previously made hits out of such August releases as Eat Pray Love, Julie & Julia, and The Time Traveler’s Wife. With its generally favorable reviews, The Help could very well join those films and become a late-summer success.

4. 30 Minutes or Less: $16 million

The umpteenth R-rated comedy this summer, this film stars Danny McBride and Nick Swardson as two criminals who, in order to raise enough money to hire an assassin, kidnap a pizza delivery guy (Jesse Eisenberg) and force him to rob a bank — while wearing a bomb on his chest. Aziz Ansari costars as the pizza guy’s best buddy. This is a hard one to call, as I’m not sure whether young adults will be intrigued by the movie’s dark, kooky plot, or simply find it off-putting. The film re-teams Eisenberg with Zombieland director Ruben Fleisher, and that horror comedy opened to a surprising $24.7 million two years ago. But reviews for 30 Minutes or Less have been mediocre, and small-time crooks robbing a bank doesn’t feature quite the same epic pizazz as a few lone survivors shotgunning a mob of flesh-eating zombies.

5. The Smurfs: $13 million

The PG comedy fell only 42 percent last week. With no new moviegoing options for small kids, The Smurfs should hold up even a bit better this weekend. Bow down to your blue overlords.

6. Glee: The 3D Concert Movie: $9 million

Another wild card here, as it’s difficult to know whether the Gleeks are passionate enough to follow the New Directions to the big screen (and pay those exorbitant 3-D prices). This $8.5 million concert pic, which is playing at 2,040 3-D locations, shouldn’t come close to matching the debuts of Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour ($31.1 million) or Justin Bieber: Never Say Never ($29.5 million), and I’m thinking it won’t even surpass the opening of Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience ($12.5 million). I simply don’t believe the Gleeks possess the same preteen fervor that fueled those other movies, but I could be proven wrong.


I do not think that Apes will hold on IMO. Actually a movie that I did not know was even out "The Help" has won both Thursday and Friday of this week!


I would suggest that everyone goes to see 30 Minutes or Less if you are looking for a raunchy R rated comedy that is pretty funny.


From walking into each theater last night I saw that Glee, Final Destination, and 30 minutes or less all had about the same amount of attendees at them.

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