Wii Fit Plus should simply replace Wii Fit, plus a few million in bonus sales for supplementation, so it should be easier to extrapolate what it can do.

Interesting analysis, Pineapple.

I agree with all that Wii Fit + is the only one that may not make it to 10 million by the end of the FY.

I think it can manage the 10 million shipped, but not 10 million sold.

Recall that the Wii in Q1 2009 sold nearly 4.5 million. I doubt the Wii in 2010 will be able to match this, affecting software sales.

It makes me sick to think how successful nintendo has been re-releasing the gamecube with motion controls,I really thought it was a fad at 1st and that there ship has sailed.They have a real crappy software library of cookie cutter games and yet the damn thing won't loose steam.Who is still buying these consoles?The wii is pure crap with shovel ware to boot.Die Nintendo Die,but please sell miyamoto and the Zelda franchise to ubisoft before you do.

Awww someone needs a hug! Don't worry I won't let go even if it starts to hurt!

Fine post as always, Oyv. I was evidently too lazy to compare Wii Fit to Wii Fit+, hence my pesimissm. At the same time though, I have to recall that Wii Fit was severely supply-constrained, while it seems easy enough to pick up Plus.

I haven't fully thought out the implications of that though: does it mean that Plus will continue to see better-than-Fit-sales? Or does this prevent pent-up demand, and thus mean that its long term sales will decline? I know of at least one poster on this site who kept reiterating the latter claim for all of the Wii's big games (and the Wii itself, for that matter). I didn't buy it then, and I don't buy it now, but in truth I have no way to definitively strike down his thesis. All I have is a mountain of circumstancial data that argues otherwise.

I might have been over-estimating Wii Fit Plus here. It has few things going for it that Wii Fit didn't, and it has quite a few facts going against it.

Essentially, the only advantage Wii Fit Plus has over Wii Fit, is that it has a larger installbase. However, this is greatly outweighed by

- An increase in competition on the machine. Wii Fit had nearly only Mario Kart Wii to compete with. Wii Fit Plus has Mario Kart Wii (although weakened through time), New Super Mario Bros. Wii and Wii Sports Resort. That's definitely tougher competition.

- The Wii isn't selling any more software. None of the major machines are, and thus, the advantage of a larger installbase isn't an advantage at all.

- Momentum. Wii Fit built its own momentum, and carried that out. Wii Fit Plus started out on a used momentum, something which is incredibly hard to improve upon.

All in all, I think you and c0rd are correct - I over-estimated Wii Fit Plus a bit, by comparing it to Wii Fit. 10 million shipped by the end of the financial year seems likely, 10 million sold might be a bit too much.

So NPD revealed that as of the end of November, Wii Fit+ sales in the U.S. stood at 1.1. million, 679,000 of which were in November. Resort shifted 720,000 units that month as well. NSMBWii figures are at 2 million as of yesterday.

I think you're right Oyv; if Wii Fit Plus continues to show these legs, it'll ship 10 million worldwide by April. And what better game to develop legs than Wii Fit?

Remember people, for Iwata shipped = sold. He's not talking about selling to end customers, but retailers (he was talking to investors, after all).

Only Nintendo can make these predictions -- and then make them come true.
My guess is that Wii Fit + may not make it. Then again, who knows what the holidays are bringing. (Last minute cheap gift for someone with a balance board -- WF+).

Mike from Morgantown