No one would want to play sports with Natal. It will be a failure like Wii Sports.

Several things obviously wrong with OP:

a) Splinter Cell Conviction is not certified AAA.

b) Natal won't be ready in June; debatable whether titles like Madden will be able to incorporate Natal by the time of their release.

c) Gears 3 won't arrive next year; Microsoft would never have a Halo and Gears drop in the same holiday season.

But Splinter cell is shaping up to be AAA

Don't knock it until it's proven it's not. By 360 game buying 360 owners not disgruntled PS3 fans.

One problem I found with the OP.
August Madden. Sure will be big in America but what does the World get for the 360 in that month?

Try thinking about putting Natal in Guitar Hero 6 but still using the controller, and the the band member your controlling (either the the drummer or the guitarist) mimics the movements you make whilst your playin. This way you arent playing an air-guitar and it adds a bit of Natal into the game.

I know some people will say this is pointless/useless but its a way to get it in

And instead of Xbox Sports or something along those lines, they need Fuzion Frenzy 3 as a Natal launch title. Most of those mini-game would be the best way to kick-off Natal

Dont be surprised if Alan Wake outsells God of War Droid.

Also Splinter Cell Conviction will move Milions and its AAA for sure , all Splinter Cell have been - Check MetaCritic poor Droids.

BioWaRe did good in putting Mass Effect 2 in January because Conviction would smash it , Alan Wake will sell good but not as good those 2.

No doubt Fable III and Halo Reach will be Monster SALES and if Gears of War 3 comes ou it will be a BeAsT aswell , the problem is that 3rd Parties will be angry at Microsoft if that happens... Also RalliSport Challenge 3 coming in 2010 ? That would smash evey single Racing Game in 2010 <3 Or Maybe Even PGR5 ... Natal Triple A Games like MILO are allways Welcome but i doubt it will came in 2010 because i hink LionHead is fully Concentrated in Fable 3 ... Maybe BiGPark is already Working with NATAL and of course RaRe.

About CrackDown 2 - The 1st Sold 1.7 milions due to Halo 3 BETA so i think Microsoft will just do the same this time around , including a BETA on CrackDown 2 of a Game (Maybe Gears of War 3) if they want the game to Sells over 2 milions they better do that.

Again this is more of a wish list rather than a realistic forecast of what is to come in 2010. I'm sure a lot of these things will come eventually but reading through your list it just got absurd I read down. You go from posting actual release dates in the beginning of the year to "Gears of War 3".

Wow people are sure not considering the possibilities of Natal. It'l be the little things that make it worth while. For example, if you had GH Natal, the user could still input via the normal peripherals, but they could add in the ability to have your avatar (YOU) on stage rocking out move for move just like you are IRL - why not, right? Personally I think it'd be something that'd set Xbox 360's GH/RB games apart from the others; especially since it would be optional and not required. Games like Madden would be harder, but I could see a maddenesque game that involved some jumping, running-man, catching, or passing at some point. Nifty to some degree, but you know, even with Wii you only use the motion aspects so far but damn... it sure does help add to the entertainment value of games that otherwise would uh... suck. All that said, OP forgot Bioshock 2 (3 weeks after ME2!)