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The Official December NPD 2008 Thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official December NPD 2008 Thread

TWRoO said:
DMeisterJ said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
TheSource said:

I'm very suspicious of the Wii number given that December had five weeks and that November had four.

2.04m/4 weeks in Nov = 510k/week

2.15m/5 weeks in Dec = 430k/week

 

Does anyone really believe Nintendo would ship more in November weeks than in December weeks? If they just sent a massive allocation for November and hoped it would hold and sent a comparable allocation for December its a pretty terrible tactical decision.

November software:

 1. Gears of War 2 (Microsoft, Xbox 360) - 1.56 million
2. Call of Duty: World At War (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360) - 1.41 million
3. Wii Play (Nintendo, Wii) - 796,000
4. Wii Fit (Nintendo, Wii) - 697,000
5. Mario Kart (Nintendo, Wii) - 637,00
6. Call of Duty: World At War (Activision Blizzard, PS3) - 597,000 
7. Guitar Hero: World Tour (Activision Blizzard, Wii) - 475,000 
8. Left 4 Dead (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360) - 410,000
9. Resistance 2 (Sony, PlayStation 3) - 385,000
10. Wii Music (Nintendo, Wii) - 297,000

 

 

December software:

1. Wii Play w/ remote - Wii – Nintendo – 1.46 million
2. Call of Duty: World at War - Xbox 360 – Activision – 1.33 million*
3. Wii Fit w/ balance board – Wii – Nintendo – 999K
4. Mario Kart Wii w/ wheel – Wii – Nintendo – 979K
5. Guitar Hero: World Tour - Wii – Activision – 850K*
6. Gears of War 2 - Xbox 360 – Microsoft – 745K*
7. Left 4 Dead - Xbox 360 – Electronic Arts – 629K
8. Mario Kart - DS – Nintendo – 540K
9. Call of Duty: World at War - PS3 – Activision – 533K
10. Animal Crossing: City Folk - Wii – Nintendo – 497K*

 

Total for each

November: 7264K

December: 8562K

 

Pr week that is

November: 1816K

December: 1712K

 

So the top 10 software was actually lower in December than in November? Seems a bit fishy to me.

5 weeks versus 4 weeks, and lack of Black friday doesn't seem too fishy at all.

 

How long have you been here DMJ....December is the 5 week month. but that doesn't matter, he accounted for that by figuring out the weekly.

The other thing that is fishy by the way, is the huge rise in Wii Play sales, because Wii Play generally follows the hardware sales because new Wii owners buy it to get an extra controller.... so wtf is Wii Play doing almost doubling it's sales from Nov-Dec when the Wii barely rose.

If there was a supply issue with the Wii, fewer people would have bought Wii Play.

 

Last year, Wii Nov sales were approximately Wii December sales, and Wii Play Nov. sales were about half Wii Play Dec. sales.  As much as I hate to admit it, this does have historical precidence.  (Americas only used for the comparison)

What I can't remember is whether either month were 5-week months last year.  Is it the same every year? So was December 2007 a 5-week month?



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Is this DS's best month ever?



PC + Wii owners unite.  Our last-gen dying platforms have access to nearly every 90+ rated game this gen.  Building a PC that visually outperforms PS360 is cheap and easy.    Oct 7th 2010 predictions (made Dec 17th '08)
PC: 10^9
Wii: 10^8

Aj_habfan said:
Kenology said:
BengaBenga said:
TheSource said:

I'm very suspicious of the Wii number given that December had five weeks and that November had four.

2.04m/4 weeks in Nov = 510k/week

2.15m/5 weeks in Dec = 430k/week

 

Does anyone really believe Nintendo would ship more in November weeks than in December weeks? If they just sent a massive allocation for November and hoped it would hold and sent a comparable allocation for December its a pretty terrible tactical decision.

I'm usually not a sceptical man, but I'm with you here. I honestly can't believe these numbers are real Especially not considering VGC was very close to the rest of the consoles.

 

Yeah.  Something is just not right about this.

 

Simple. Either a shortage of Wii's, they overtracked last month, or the demand is down. Take your pick.

 

Over 2 million Wiis sold and a small increase from last month and you want to throw out "demand is down".  Yeah, you wish, Aj!  But yeah, either there was a shortage or NPD overtracked in November.  It'll all come out in the financial report wash.

 






megaman79 said:
FishyJoe said:
Nintendo and Activision make up 80% of the top 10. While Left 4 dead did better than expected, EA still got left in the dust. Not having RB2 for the Wii ready was inexcusable.

 

Its happening more often, almost like theres a Wii version delay conspiracy happening.

Well that conspiracy costed EA a lot of money. Guitar Hero sold amazing. That's a) lost revenue this holiday, b) Lost revenue in the future, since people will likely stick with the brand and c) Loss of marketshare vs Activision

Well done ignoring the Wii! Congratulations with the "betting on the wrong horse" award. It could be called a small mistake if Guitar Hero III didn't sell through the roof on Wii last year. This is pure stupidity.

 



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Welp. Wii was overtracked for hardware, according to NPD.

But holy Hell at the Wii software. That's staggering.



Looking at full year trends, things look a little nicer for Sony's platforms

2008:

Wii 10.15 million (+61%)
360 4.73 million (+2.3%)
PS3 3.54 million (+38%)
PS2 2.50 million ( - 37%)
NDS 9.95 million ( +17% )
PSP 3.83 million ( 0% )

2007:

Wii 6.29 million
360 4.62 million
PS2 3.97 million
PS3 2.56 million
NDS 8.50 million
PSP 3.82 million

--

PSP is flat YoY, so it's had 2 peak years in America?

PS3 has done really good for the last 12 months in America considering the lack of a price cut.

For as good as 360 did this month, YoY isn't too nice. This is peak year, no?

Wii and DS are monstorus!



frybread said:
Is this DS's best month ever?

If so, DS has broken PS2's monthly sales record.

PC + Wii owners unite.  Our last-gen dying platforms have access to nearly every 90+ rated game this gen.  Building a PC that visually outperforms PS360 is cheap and easy.    Oct 7th 2010 predictions (made Dec 17th '08)
PC: 10^9
Wii: 10^8

So this basically means that

1) Wii didn't outsell this holiday season in the US, OR
2) Nintendo didn't up the production as much as they said they would

Either way it's really disappointing.



DMeisterJ said:
FishyJoe said:
Nintendo and Activision make up 80% of the top 10. While Left 4 dead did better than expected, EA still got left in the dust. Not having RB2 for the Wii ready was inexcusable.

Considering how good RB1 (and GH: WT) was selling on the Wii, it was stupid.

Also, GH: WT may have finally put the nail in the coffin of the Wii/3rd party argument.

@ hyruken

No it's not good, but you act like the drop was like fifty percent or something.  Don't sensationalize.  It's worrying, but not life-or-death like you're coming across.

As I said, stop sensationalizing.

 

 Dude no offence but 9% is a MASSIVE drop. If it happened at any other time of the year then what you say would be true. But it wasen't. It was at the time of the year where majority of people buying a console will buy one such is how the holidays work. Is it normal that a console in its 3rd holiday drops that far? Not if you compare it to history it is not.

Sensationalizing would be to say something like "PS3 is dead", that is not what i said nor what i implied. It is the knock on effect of that is what is worrying. As i said Sony will have no option now but to do 1 of 2 things, either accept that in US at least they will not get 1st place and now looks very unlikely will come 2nd. The gap is now 8.34M in US between the PS3 and the 360. Or do a price cut and hope sales pick up. If they do that they risk losing many more billions because as Joe mentioned PS3 sales for games are not even that great. The top PS3 game of the year barely made it onto the list and then still got killed sales wise by the 360 version. That sends out a msg as mentioned that going exclusive on PS3 could be a huge gamble to 3rd party devs. So the PS3 is not doomed, far from it. But MS have played Sony like a bunch of chumps. While Sony are trying to figure out what to do MS have snuck in on their old stronghold of europe and started to make that replicate the american sales. The question as i mentioned becomes how long can Sony let MS beat them week after week in EU and US before saying "this gen is lost"? They have some massive decisions to make. If these numbers were not 9% down, say they were something like 2% Up they would not be under the same pressure to act. The next few weeks will be vital for the PS3 in terms of compeating for 2nd place in US in my view.