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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official December NPD 2008 Thread

mrstickball on 15 January 2009

Allow MrStickball to spin the Wii being off by 1m, and the fact that it may indeed be accurate...It *is* NPD, BTW.

1) VGC undertracked the Wii by almost ~1m last month, and then adjusted the numbers, and most likely used the new methodology. We've seen, very often, that adjustments by VGC almost never work - they end up being right in the end. Although the numbers should be adjusted down, let's remember that it's not because VGC is bad, just that the market is wacky.

2) As to the probability that such a blistering November could be followed by a 'poor' Christmas showing (in terms of a decrease of weekly sales): We hear each week how the American economy is in the tank, and I'd argue that those that are budget conscious - the average mainstream family - is probably cutting back. If this is the case, then the Wii would be the 1st place to go, I think. The 360 had the advantage of being cheaper + supply problems for the Arcade...It did phenominal given how much it's been getting beat by the Wii as of late.

Software is interesting. This was one of the more accurate months we've seen, which is great. Awesome to see Left 4 Dead to so well, and need about a 100k adjustment.

And for the Wii trends in SW being so massive: Let's remember consumer trending with the Wii. They've always been stronger during the holiday months of Nov-Dec (again) due to family purchasing. Even if HW may look 'bad', that doesn't mean you don't have a massive install base for the Wii that needs new games - which is why games like Wii Play, Fit, Kart and such did so well.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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celine on 15 January 2009
luisgvm said:
was any console down YOY? 

In December ? All the Sony systems but only slightly.

 



 “In the entertainment business, there are only heaven and hell, and nothing in between and as soon as our customers bore of our products, we will crash.”  Hiroshi Yamauchi

TAG:  Like a Yamauchi pimp slap delivered by Il Maelstrom; serving it up with style.

ameratsu on 15 January 2009

That Wii Play attach ratio is really something else. What could reasonably explain this? Maybe a lack of unbundled controllers? Regardless of what happened that's extremely impressive.



Demon's Souls Official Thread  | Currently playing: Left 4 Dead 2, LittleBigPlanet 2, Magicka

msnolp on 15 January 2009

impressive sale for xbox 360!!

super low ps3 sale.... ouch wow ouch



DMeisterJ on 15 January 2009
Hyruken said:
DMeisterJ said:
FishyJoe said:
Nintendo and Activision make up 80% of the top 10. While Left 4 dead did better than expected, EA still got left in the dust. Not having RB2 for the Wii ready was inexcusable.

Considering how good RB1 (and GH: WT) was selling on the Wii, it was stupid.

Also, GH: WT may have finally put the nail in the coffin of the Wii/3rd party argument.

@ hyruken

No it's not good, but you act like the drop was like fifty percent or something.  Don't sensationalize.  It's worrying, but not life-or-death like you're coming across.

As I said, stop sensationalizing.

 Dude no offence but 9% is a MASSIVE drop. If it happened at any other time of the year then what you say would be true. But it wasen't. It was at the time of the year where majority of people buying a console will buy one such is how the holidays work. Is it normal that a console in its 3rd holiday drops that far? Not if you compare it to history it is not.

Sensationalizing would be to say something like "PS3 is dead", that is not what i said nor what i implied. It is the knock on effect of that is what is worrying. As i said Sony will have no option now but to do 1 of 2 things, either accept that in US at least they will not get 1st place and now looks very unlikely will come 2nd. The gap is now 8.34M in US between the PS3 and the 360. Or do a price cut and hope sales pick up. If they do that they risk losing many more billions because as Joe mentioned PS3 sales for games are not even that great. The top PS3 game of the year barely made it onto the list and then still got killed sales wise by the 360 version. That sends out a msg as mentioned that going exclusive on PS3 could be a huge gamble to 3rd party devs. So the PS3 is not doomed, far from it. But MS have played Sony like a bunch of chumps. While Sony are trying to figure out what to do MS have snuck in on their old stronghold of europe and started to make that replicate the american sales. The question as i mentioned becomes how long can Sony let MS beat them week after week in EU and US before saying "this gen is lost"? They have some massive decisions to make. If these numbers were not 9% down, say they were something like 2% Up they would not be under the same pressure to act. The next few weeks will be vital for the PS3 in terms of compeating for 2nd place in US in my view.

I didn't read this.

But it's not that serious to have to write a long drawn out paragraph over a 9 percent drop. 

Chill.



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celine on 15 January 2009
frybread said:
Is this DS's best month ever?

It is the best month ever ( DS now held the record ). 

 



 “In the entertainment business, there are only heaven and hell, and nothing in between and as soon as our customers bore of our products, we will crash.”  Hiroshi Yamauchi

TAG:  Like a Yamauchi pimp slap delivered by Il Maelstrom; serving it up with style.

mrstickball on 15 January 2009
ameratsu said:
That Wii Play attach ratio is really something else. What could reasonably explain this? Maybe a lack of unbundled controllers? Regardless of what happened that's extremely impressive.

Entirely antecdotal, but when I went to a major US shopping mall (Easton in Columbus) employees were talking people that already owned Wiis into buying Wii Play since it was the 'cheapest' game they could get - as it included a controller.

 



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

TWRoO on 15 January 2009
alpha_dk said:
TWRoO said:
DMeisterJ said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
TheSource said:

I'm very suspicious of the Wii number given that December had five weeks and that November had four.

2.04m/4 weeks in Nov = 510k/week

2.15m/5 weeks in Dec = 430k/week

 

Does anyone really believe Nintendo would ship more in November weeks than in December weeks? If they just sent a massive allocation for November and hoped it would hold and sent a comparable allocation for December its a pretty terrible tactical decision.

November software:

 1. Gears of War 2 (Microsoft, Xbox 360) - 1.56 million
2. Call of Duty: World At War (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360) - 1.41 million
3. Wii Play (Nintendo, Wii) - 796,000
4. Wii Fit (Nintendo, Wii) - 697,000
5. Mario Kart (Nintendo, Wii) - 637,00
6. Call of Duty: World At War (Activision Blizzard, PS3) - 597,000 
7. Guitar Hero: World Tour (Activision Blizzard, Wii) - 475,000 
8. Left 4 Dead (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360) - 410,000
9. Resistance 2 (Sony, PlayStation 3) - 385,000
10. Wii Music (Nintendo, Wii) - 297,000

 

 

December software:

1. Wii Play w/ remote - Wii – Nintendo – 1.46 million
2. Call of Duty: World at War - Xbox 360 – Activision – 1.33 million*
3. Wii Fit w/ balance board – Wii – Nintendo – 999K
4. Mario Kart Wii w/ wheel – Wii – Nintendo – 979K
5. Guitar Hero: World Tour - Wii – Activision – 850K*
6. Gears of War 2 - Xbox 360 – Microsoft – 745K*
7. Left 4 Dead - Xbox 360 – Electronic Arts – 629K
8. Mario Kart - DS – Nintendo – 540K
9. Call of Duty: World at War - PS3 – Activision – 533K
10. Animal Crossing: City Folk - Wii – Nintendo – 497K*

 

Total for each

November: 7264K

December: 8562K

 

Pr week that is

November: 1816K

December: 1712K

 

So the top 10 software was actually lower in December than in November? Seems a bit fishy to me.

5 weeks versus 4 weeks, and lack of Black friday doesn't seem too fishy at all.

 

How long have you been here DMJ....December is the 5 week month. but that doesn't matter, he accounted for that by figuring out the weekly.

The other thing that is fishy by the way, is the huge rise in Wii Play sales, because Wii Play generally follows the hardware sales because new Wii owners buy it to get an extra controller.... so wtf is Wii Play doing almost doubling it's sales from Nov-Dec when the Wii barely rose.

If there was a supply issue with the Wii, fewer people would have bought Wii Play.

 

Last year, Wii Nov sales were approximately Wii December sales, and Wii Play Nov. sales were about half Wii Play Dec. sales.  As much as I hate to admit it, this does have historical precidence.  (Americas only used for the comparison)

What I can't remember is whether either month were 5-week months last year.  Is it the same every year? So was December 2007 a 5-week month?

Yes, the weeks are always the same.

Last year Wii was 981k in Nov, and 1,350k in Dec..... that's about a 45% increase... I don't have figures for Wii play from NPD.... but by VGC it doesn't quite double.

So last year, Wii went up 45% in December (from November)  and Wii Play up about 85%.

This year Wii went up 5% and Wii Play went up 83%

 



Khuutra on 15 January 2009
Brett said:
No adjustments this month guys, I'm happy with all of our figures. I believe the disparity in Wii sales is more of a cumulative thing over the year and maybe adjustments being made to ensure that year end totals line up.

Hey that's cool.



Magnific0 on 15 January 2009
Rab said:
Wii
December 2007: 1.35 million
December 2008: 2.15 million
+59%

360
December 2007: 1.26 million
December 2008: 1.44 million
+14%

PS3
December 2007: 797,600
December 2008: 726,000
-9%

@BengaBenga and other...ignorants replying to my previous post. Look at the numbers in red above...See them?

See the increase on 360 sales? does that look great to you when you're selling your system for as low as $199.99 on you THIRD YEAR (hint *sales peaking) ? LMAO to all of you. The PS3 kept the same exact price and it sold just as much. Hint: The key here is T-H-I-R-D  Y-E-A-R. and U-S-$ 2-0-0 P-R-I-C-E  P-O-I-N-T

Didn't you learn to swallow? aww, here's come the planeeeee.....now open WIDE.