I just watched this http://www.gametrailers.com/bonusround.php featuring two industry analysts. Here are some of the more interesting statements:
Pachter believes the the Xbox 360 pricedrop will result in a 25% to 40% boost in Xbox 360 hardware sales in the USA. He justifies this using the economic principle of price elasticity - suggesting that the percentage increase in sales will be 2x the rate of the price drop (in other words a 16% price drop on the $300 - $50 - core would result in a 32% increase in demand for the Core 360). It should be noted that everyone in this show seems to think the Core dropped to $250...not $280...
Pachter and Pidgeon believe all of the big three are messing up their online strategies.
- Live is too hardcore...says Pacther; but Pidgeon says Live could become Microsoft's best stream of revenue in gaming in time.
- Home feels like a 'lounge' and interest seems to have cooled off since GDC in the wake of more details...
- Nintendo's friend codes are awful and Nintendo could be passing up a lot of money on online.
Although the analysts and host (keightly) are unaware that GTA IV has actually been delayed, Pachter says that if the game is delayed, it impacts Sony more short term.
Pachter compares 360 to Victoria's Secret (where his wife apparently shops...) - offering one thing to a segment of the population very well, while Wii is the Gap (for those of you who never go outside, these are clothing stores). Victoria's Secret could offer clothes for toddlers, men, etc, but no one would think of the brand for those products. To do significantly better than Xbox (Pachter notes that for 360 to be selling just about as well as Xbox despite costing twice as much in the USA suggests Microsoft is making progress), Microsoft needs to find a way to reposition Xbox 360.
Pachter maintains that Nintendo will introduce a Wii HD in Fall 2009...but this time adds that it will likely hurt Xbox 360 since Wii will be able to everything 360 can. He goes on to say if Nintendo handles this correctly that Nintendo's momentum would become unassailable.
Pachter believes PS3 will have a great year in 2008 as a) Price goes down, b) PS2 users run out of stuff to play c) PS3 content increases, d) HD TV adoption/Blue Ray adoption increase. Until then, Pachter says, people are buying Wii as their first next-gen console since it is fun and cheap - with the intention to buy PS3 or 360 when they are ready for what they offer at a lower price. Not surprisingly, both analysts believe Sony is going to lag behind Nintendo and Microsoft in 2007.
Both analysts say that Nintendo is executing in a way that neither Sony or Microsoft is capable of - both in Wii's peripherals (Wii Balance Board), and in making old genres more fun and accessible to everyone. Pachter goes on to note that the Gamecube and Wii lineup in 2001-2002 to 2006-2007 is actually fairly similar - but the pricing and accessability give Nintendo huge advantages in perceived value and differentiation. Both analysts believe that Nintendo actually knows what it is doing and that Nintendo knows how to continue it's success - calling whoever calls the shots (whether Iwata, Miyamoto or someone else) in designing Nintendo's strategy "brilliant" and "visionary".
It is a pretty entertaining piece, I'd reccomend watching it.
So Pachter thinks that both the 360 and PS3 will be making progress? I really doubt that Pachter thinks that there is room in the market for all 3 consoles....he is just saying positive things about all three consoles and keeping his opinions to himself.
This is probably a smart idea.... I mean if he just went out and said that XXXXXX console is going to win it all, b/c I say so, he would look pretty dumb for doing that.