Forums - Sales Discussion - Pachter/Pidgeon on GameTrailers "Analyze this"

TheSource said:

I just watched this http://www.gametrailers.com/bonusround.php featuring two industry analysts.  Here are some of the more interesting statements:

Pachter believes the the Xbox 360 pricedrop will result in a 25% to 40% boost in Xbox 360 hardware sales in the USA.  He justifies this using the economic principle of price elasticity - suggesting that the percentage increase in sales will be 2x the rate of the price drop (in other words a 16% price drop on the $300 - $50 - core would result in a 32% increase in demand for the Core 360).  It should be noted that everyone in this show seems to think the Core dropped to $250...not $280...

Pachter and Pidgeon believe all of the big three are messing up their online strategies.

- Live is too hardcore...says Pacther; but Pidgeon says Live could become Microsoft's best stream of revenue in gaming in time.

- Home feels like a 'lounge' and interest seems to have cooled off since GDC in the wake of more details...

- Nintendo's friend codes are awful and Nintendo could be passing up a lot of money on online.

Although the analysts and host (keightly) are unaware that GTA IV has actually been delayed, Pachter says that if the game is delayed, it impacts Sony more short term.

Pachter compares 360 to Victoria's Secret (where his wife apparently shops...) - offering one thing to a segment of the population very well, while Wii is the Gap (for those of you who never go outside, these are clothing stores).  Victoria's Secret could offer clothes for toddlers, men, etc, but no one would think of the brand for those products.  To do significantly better than Xbox (Pachter notes that for 360 to be selling just about as well as Xbox despite costing twice as much in the USA suggests Microsoft is making progress), Microsoft needs to find a way to reposition Xbox 360.

Pachter maintains that Nintendo will introduce a Wii HD in Fall 2009...but this time adds that it will likely hurt Xbox 360 since Wii will be able to everything 360 can.  He goes on to say if Nintendo handles this correctly that Nintendo's momentum would become unassailable.

Pachter believes PS3 will have a great year in 2008 as a) Price goes down, b) PS2 users run out of stuff to play c) PS3 content increases, d) HD TV adoption/Blue Ray adoption increase.  Until then, Pachter says, people are buying Wii as their first next-gen console since it is fun and cheap - with the intention to buy PS3 or 360 when they are ready for what they offer at a lower price.  Not surprisingly, both analysts believe Sony is going to lag behind Nintendo and Microsoft in 2007.

Both analysts say that Nintendo is executing in a way that neither Sony or Microsoft is capable of - both in Wii's peripherals (Wii Balance Board), and in making old genres more fun and accessible to everyone.  Pachter goes on to note that the Gamecube and Wii lineup in 2001-2002 to 2006-2007 is actually fairly similar - but the pricing and accessability give Nintendo huge advantages in perceived value and differentiation.  Both analysts believe that Nintendo actually knows what it is doing and that Nintendo knows how to continue it's success - calling whoever calls the shots (whether Iwata, Miyamoto or someone else) in designing Nintendo's strategy "brilliant" and "visionary".

It is a pretty entertaining piece, I'd reccomend watching it.


So Pachter thinks that both the 360 and PS3 will be making progress?  I really doubt that Pachter thinks that there is room in the market for all 3 consoles....he is just saying positive things about all three consoles and keeping his opinions to himself.

This is probably a smart idea.... I mean if he just went out and said that XXXXXX console is going to win it all, b/c I say so, he would look pretty dumb for doing that.



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^ He looks dumb already by NOT saying so. Regardless, I think he'd say PS3 >_>




dallas said:

So Pachter thinks that both the 360 and PS3 will be making progress?  I really doubt that Pachter thinks that there is room in the market for all 3 consoles....he is just saying positive things about all three consoles and keeping his opinions to himself.

This is probably a smart idea.... I mean if he just went out and said that XXXXXX console is going to win it all, b/c I say so, he would look pretty dumb for doing that.


Except (of course) that Patcher already has made several claims that essentially state "XXXXXX console is going to win it all" ...

Initially Patcher stated in 2004 that the PSP was going to dominate and then in late 2005 he stated that by the end of 2006 the PSP was going to be in the lead; he believed that the PS3 was going to dominate this generation and then he changed his opinion that the PS3 would take the lead later in the generation.

The fact of the matter is that Patcher is strictly a financial analyst and has very little interest in gaming; much like many of the executives at third party publishers he has based his expectations on meaningless things like "Brand Awareness" and doesn't understand that people only care about the right product being offered at the right price. This is (really) no different from any other market, if Apple decided to offer the multi-touch screen on all iPods but this forced every one of their iPods to cost $600+ suddenly the Zune would take off.

 



Looks like a made a whole nother discusion. My bad. Let me elaborate on what I ment.

Sony will miss this Holiday season. I think we can all agree on that. There aren't many big mainstream titles coming that will push the console, while Wii Fit(Japan) Galaxys and Halo 3 all come out this year. What this will do is hurt Sonmy in the long run. As time goes on it will be harder and harder to bridge the gap. As more people buy the competition's consoles, that will increase intrest for those consoles, and push sales. If Sony has to wait till Christmas of 2008 to get a push, it won't be near as effective as it should be, or they want. Consumers by them will have made a choice. With more poeple they know owning 360s(at least in America) and Wiis, fewer people will care about the PS3. I feel their big titles and price cut will come too late.



Patcher is right by saying, that there's room in the market for all 3 console manufacturers... But only if they work as Nintendo. Keep themselves profitable and not base their strategies on a sales of 100M+.

I think that once Wii take the lead, it stays that way.

@Steven: It means that Patcher thinks that PS3 sells better in 08 than 360 or Wii, not that it would outsell their total.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

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Soriku said:
^ He looks dumb already by NOT saying so. Regardless, I think he'd say PS3 >_>

 ........






konnichiwa said:
Soriku said:
^ He looks dumb already by NOT saying so. Regardless, I think he'd say PS3 >_>

 ........


.........


Calling people dumb because of their opinion sjeezes how close minded can you be?

 Especially when you only can dream to be so succesfull as Patcher;. 






konnichiwa said:

Calling people dumb because of their opinion sjeezes how close minded can you be?

Especially when you only can dream to be so succesfull as Patcher;.


 Its soriku what do you expect, wiis defence force #1 tool.



C'mon, chill out everyone...

Analysts (like everyone) are entitled to their opinions.

@AllAll - avoid personal attacks please...

 



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