I just watched this http://www.gametrailers.com/bonusround.php featuring two industry analysts.  Here are some of the more interesting statements:

Pachter believes the the Xbox 360 pricedrop will result in a 25% to 40% boost in Xbox 360 hardware sales in the USA.  He justifies this using the economic principle of price elasticity - suggesting that the percentage increase in sales will be 2x the rate of the price drop (in other words a 16% price drop on the $300 - $50 - core would result in a 32% increase in demand for the Core 360).  It should be noted that everyone in this show seems to think the Core dropped to $250...not $280...

Pachter and Pidgeon believe all of the big three are messing up their online strategies.

- Live is too hardcore...says Pacther; but Pidgeon says Live could become Microsoft's best stream of revenue in gaming in time.

- Home feels like a 'lounge' and interest seems to have cooled off since GDC in the wake of more details...

- Nintendo's friend codes are awful and Nintendo could be passing up a lot of money on online.

Although the analysts and host (keightly) are unaware that GTA IV has actually been delayed, Pachter says that if the game is delayed, it impacts Sony more short term.

Pachter compares 360 to Victoria's Secret (where his wife apparently shops...) - offering one thing to a segment of the population very well, while Wii is the Gap (for those of you who never go outside, these are clothing stores).  Victoria's Secret could offer clothes for toddlers, men, etc, but no one would think of the brand for those products.  To do significantly better than Xbox (Pachter notes that for 360 to be selling just about as well as Xbox despite costing twice as much in the USA suggests Microsoft is making progress), Microsoft needs to find a way to reposition Xbox 360.

Pachter maintains that Nintendo will introduce a Wii HD in Fall 2009...but this time adds that it will likely hurt Xbox 360 since Wii will be able to everything 360 can.  He goes on to say if Nintendo handles this correctly that Nintendo's momentum would become unassailable.

Pachter believes PS3 will have a great year in 2008 as a) Price goes down, b) PS2 users run out of stuff to play c) PS3 content increases, d) HD TV adoption/Blue Ray adoption increase.  Until then, Pachter says, people are buying Wii as their first next-gen console since it is fun and cheap - with the intention to buy PS3 or 360 when they are ready for what they offer at a lower price.  Not surprisingly, both analysts believe Sony is going to lag behind Nintendo and Microsoft in 2007.

Both analysts say that Nintendo is executing in a way that neither Sony or Microsoft is capable of - both in Wii's peripherals (Wii Balance Board), and in making old genres more fun and accessible to everyone.  Pachter goes on to note that the Gamecube and Wii lineup in 2001-2002 to 2006-2007 is actually fairly similar - but the pricing and accessability give Nintendo huge advantages in perceived value and differentiation.  Both analysts believe that Nintendo actually knows what it is doing and that Nintendo knows how to continue it's success - calling whoever calls the shots (whether Iwata, Miyamoto or someone else) in designing Nintendo's strategy "brilliant" and "visionary".

It is a pretty entertaining piece, I'd reccomend watching it.

You know how there are musicians, and then there are rock stars? Some musicians look at some Rock Stars as sell-outs.

Patcher is a sell out. Instead of analyzing and predicting company value, he goes on and on about console wars so he can end up in magazines, on Internet shows, and CNBC.

Analyst, not fortune teller. And none of these sources seem to care that he is one of the worst Analysts.

The part I made bold bothers me most, because as an analyst, he should have been saying this back in October of 06 and not telling people about Nintendo's impending doom.

I hate Dr. Phil (the sellout of Mental Health Science), but he has a good line: "The best indicator of future behaviour is past behaviour." You can apply it to Patcher or to a Business.

Yeah I just can't see a Wii HD happening before 2010. But it is inevitable and WILL happen. Hopefully 360 had a good boost from the price cut.

I personally think Wii HD is a bad idea even in 09. HD is not going to be in a majority f households in the next 10 years. DTV's are going to be required to receive signals but DTV's aren't much more expensive than regular TV. HDTVs are too expensive for most people per inch, and the prices have pretty much leveled off (no longer dropping). I mean people aren't even clear on what HDTV is, we know because we are more technically minded than the average consumer.

I love HD gaming, but it won't be mass market till a median income consumer can buy an HDTV of comparable size to there current TV on one week's disposable income. I don't see that happening. For example on Walmart.com most 27" DTVs range from $200-290, the cheapest 26" HDTV is $378, the next cheapest one is $448. Too much for most of my employees/coworkers (most make between $250-400 a week after taxes), and too much for median income families who make $750/week for the whole household. HDTV is not viable when you have kids, bills, and and you and your spouse take home less than $800.

Me? I am single, I can buy useless/extravagant things like that :)

 Yeah much more likely around then, but I was referring to a worst case scenario.  

patcher was talking the whole time while the other guy just sat there and listened and nodding his head... why does patcher keep talking about Wii2 in a couple of years..

Actually you made a VERY good point there.

Did Sony release a PSOne "Antialiasing"version? No.

Or a PS2 "4-controller ports/better graphics" version? No.

Winning console doesn't needs to change it's main hardware, if it's winning now, why wouldn't win later? It's not like the other consoles change their hardware too to stay bleeding edge technology.

The only change I see on the Wii's future, is a smaller and slimmer (yes, more) version. 

Patcheter forecasts, 30%market share for microsoft

34% market share for wii

36% market share for ps3.

Ps3 dominate 08 no shiet, people pay him ?

"both analysts believe Sony is going to lag behind Nintendo and Microsoft in 2007"

Well both are idiots then, PS3/360 have been dead even World wide in 07

These guys suck, really they get payed ?

Anythings possible, I dont see microsoft in the lead, sony and nintendo are the only two I think may be high up there but chances are nintendo is going to lead.