Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii 50% and PS3 25% Guesstimations

 

          I remember that right as GTA4 was being released a lot of people were saying that the PS3 would reach 25% or pass the 360, before the Wii could reach 50%, if it ever reached 50%. It seemed to be the general consensus on here, but now the Wii is officially closer to 50% than the PS3 is to 25%. The Wii is just 2.4% away, while the PS3 is 2.7% away. At the time GTA4 was released, I believe the Wii was around 45.5% while the PS3 was at 22%, if I remember correctly. What a difference a few months makes. I was just wondering if, anybody's opinion on the timeframe in which those events would happen has changed, since then? If so, by how much?



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I think the Wii will reach it first. The 360 and PS3 are selling way to similar lately that I don't think PS3 is gonna gain ground in % as fast as the Wii is gonna keep going



Yeah! That's the way it looks, but I was curious when people think it will happen.



Well, if Wii reaches 50% (likely by February at the latest), the PS3 would have to equal 360 sales to hit 25% (50% non-Wii sales, divided by 2 consoles). That's not going to happen.

As it is, it seems highly unlikely, short of a massive price cut early in 2009, that the PS3 will catch the 360 before next fall (if even then). But by then the Wii might have 60% of console sales, which means PS3 and 360 will be dividing up 40% of the pie.

So I don't see the PS3 hittin 25% until the next generation begins.



Well, that's an interesting thought. I don't think too many people in the past, would have considered the idea of the PS3 not reaching 25% realistic, but it does look like it's a definite possibility now. That is, if both Ninty and MS are aggressive enough. With all of Sony's loses, they might be too budget constrained to be able to do a whole lot about it. Either way, I have to say, coming from the previous gen, this is already a major victory for both Ninty and MS.



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February for the Wii seems right... no idea about the ps3 though...
Hey random thought: If Sega hadn't dropped out of the race, what would be the name of their console?

I'm thinking... UltimateSegawsomesauceofwinFOREVER



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NintendoMonopoly said:
Well, that's an interesting thought. I don't think too many people in the past, would have considered the idea of the PS3 not reaching 25% realistic, but it does look like it's a definite possibility now. That is, if both Ninty and MS are aggressive enough. With all of Sony's loses, they might be too budget constrained to be able to do a whole lot about it. Either way, I have to say, coming from the previous gen, this is already a major victory for both Ninty and MS.

Rounding numbers a bit...

Nintendo's at 35 million, and making 2.5 million Wii's per month. It is easy to see how they can be at 60 million next year (12 months x 2.5 = gain of 30 million).

The 360 is at 22.2 million, the PS3 almost 16.5. So combined they're at nearly 39 million. In order to avoid falling under 50%, they would then need to sell, combined, a minimum of 21 million consoles.

In the last year, the 360 has sold just under 10 million, the PS3 just under 11. That keeps them on pace with the Wii, however, it also means the PS3 would only account for 28 million of 120 million consoles - or 23% (less if Nintendo sells all 30 million consoles, and/or increases production again).

Of course it is likely that the PS3 sales will increase somewhat due to a price cut and big name games, but there is no reason to believe those gains will be substantially out of proportion to increases on the 360 and Wii (which could cut price tomorrow and still make Nintendo a mint).

 



Take a look at my sig. I think I made my predictions for the Wii over a year ago.



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My Prediction: Wii will be achieve 48% market share by the end of 2008, and will achieve 50% by the end of june of 09. Prediction Failed.

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You can't compare market share percentages like that. Going from 25% to 50% is much easier than going from 50% to 75%. Going from 75% to 100% is impossible. It's all 25%, but since it isn't linear the placement matters.

OT: I do see the Wii hitting 50% first - mid Q2 2009 at the earliest. In fact, I'm not sure if the PS3 will ever get to 25%. Neither is guaranteed, but if we assume the Wii will get to 50% eventually, then the PS3 will need to outsell the 360 to reach 25%. That isn't happening until 2010, at the earliest.



@misterd

It looks like Nintendo has got lots flexibility as to what that can do financially, while Sony has really boxed themselves into a corner. I always thought their strategy seemed kind of crazy. It just seemed too hard for them to make back a reasonable amount of profit (in comparison to the $ and time spent) without anything other than complete domination. While Ninty's plan might have been a little too conservative at 1st. Though I completely understand why they were.

@Grey

I have to give you credit. It looks like you're going to be right on the money. I really need to get around to putting some predictions up. I'm soo lazy when comes that sort of stuff, but for me, my free time goes something like this...
Life>>>>Games>>>>Talking about games