Before I get banned, I'm not saying it absolutely will, but I think there is a good chance of it happening next week in Japan.
There are a few reasons, and things to consider for this prediction/commentary on Japanese sales:
Factors against the Wii:
- Down 20% YTD from last year (2.4m to 2.0m consoles)
- Lack of hardware-moving software
- Typical "dry period" for the Wii, and major hardware in Japan, from late August to October
Factors for the Xbox 360:
- Major IP releasing (Tri-Ace/Square's Infinite Undiscovery), as well as minor ones (Viva Pinata 2, Raiden IV)
- Pent-Up demand for sales, Post-ToV
- Major Price Drop (30%)
Because of these factors, I think it's very possible for it to be a one-off (if not the only time it'll ever) to pass the Wii for one week. Last year, the Wii was selling around 26,000-28,000 each week at this point. Factoring in the 20% YTD decrease in Wii sales in Japan, it could be selling between 20,000-22,000 units/wk by the time IU launches.
So, does anyone want to get on board with me to say that there's a good chance that the X360 will pass the Wii for 1 week, or am I the only crazy one to think it could happen? Last year, no one thought the X360 would pass the PS3 the week of Ace Combat 6, but it did (albeit slightly).
I think the X360 could sell as low as 13,000-14,000 on the week, but I also think that due to the utter lack of X360 consoles in Japan recently, that the X360 could also explode given the "perfect storm" - good software, cheap price, and lack of competition. No, I'm not saying there'll be a magic ressurrection of the X360 in Japan to where it does something absolutely insane, but I think it has the potential to keep the race for #2 at least interesting.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.