GOD! Why are some people so unwilling to get with Sony's program. They have a set life cycle of 10yrs. This is very much similar to their PS2 life plan. The PS2 has achieved sales numbers only dreamed of and it has achieved them in LESS than 10 years. To make a legitimate hypothesis on the outcome of this race why would I not use the data from last gen? It only makes sense to. We know certain variables differ but in the end we are in the very same predicament. Sony will be on top yet again by the end of this cycle and not becuz it is anyone's favorite, but because Sony has prooven their point time and time again.
Doubters get over it....
This pretty much spells out why people are unwilling. Customers determine console time span viability. Companies like Sony have been around pushing products for shorter life times. Mostly in portable electronics. this tactic has succeeded. When Sony proved it's long generation selling power with PS1 and PS2 they did so under certain circumstances. They grabbed the market share majority by best serving the customers wants. They did so marvelously that they managed to increase the age range and increase gaming sales. Sony has managed to do this twice. Nintendo has managed to also do this with the NES and SNES. In both companies history the machines lasted decent amount of time because they had the largest market share. Comming back to the consumer is the real driving force of the consoles life.
When it comes down to it Sony did a bad job starting the PS3. They don't have the market. They probably won't have the market the same way again this generation. Is the PS3 really going to be the same machine all 10 years. When the Wii2 comes out it will once again try to redifine values. This means that twice in a row sales will be astronimcal against a console that has held onto the old values that sell to a niche market. They will have plenty of sales by the end sure, but in that time Nintendo will have lapsed them twice. Nintendo 2 mahcines 100+ Million Sony 1 machine 100+ Million. What really better in the long run? This also doesn't take into account that the Wii not by design will also run a long time as the PS2 does.
So do we ignore history, trend, circumstances. Or do we go with what and who sais they want things to be? Anyways I doubt anything I wrote will have impact on you opinion, but it's there anyway.