Topic. I'm interested in knowing how the official announcement could prevent people from now until Switch 2's launch to pick up the OG hybrid. Let's hear some estimates.

Hardly at all, because there's little overlap between late adopters of an old console and early adopters of a new console. Games are still releasing at a consistent pace for the original Switch, so it's not going to be out of the news because of the successor's announcement.

Switch sales will of course be down year over year, but that's because that's the norm for an aging system.

Since the OLED makes up slightly over half of all Switch sales there will be at least some impact cause buying a model that expensive going forward would be a pretty silly move other than for people that would consider the Switch 2 being LCD a deal breaker but I doubt there's many people like that. The impact should intensify after the big early April direct but it'll still sell at least decently for the rest of January and throughout February and March though.

Yeah! I myself am hyped, but since I have access to a monster PC now I might even present me with the luxury of waiting for an OLED revision.

Deleted

I think it will have an impact because the Switch 1 is still fairly pricey, like it's not exactly a budget price.

Given that, you'd have to be pretty fucking stupid to buy a Switch 1 at this point (Lite model excluded). For $100 more maybe than what the OLED costs you'll be able to get a Switch 2 which will play Switch 1 software and maybe even enhance it on top of that you get access to the next 6+ years of Nintendo software content like the new Mario Kart game. And a bigger screen size too. 

Anyone who was thinking of getting a Switch 1 at this point would be well advised to just wait a few months for Switch 2.

Most end of lifecycle sales happen outside of the US, where $100 can turn into thousands after converting to local currency.

Yeah, everyone who could have gotten a Switch by now probably either already has or is informed enough to simply wait a bit more. Either way, like you said, there could be some impact, albeit minor. Maybe the long wait from now till the Direct is a time to (finally) announce price cut(s)?

Edit: this was originally supposed to be a quote, but it didn't work. I deleted the original one.

That's another aspect, some of those people will just wait for the OLED revision of the Switch 2 instead of getting a Switch OLED now. Though maybe its screen will be good enough for an LCD to be worth getting now for them.

Yeah thinking about it more even the original model would also be a foolish buy and arguably even more foolish than the OLED now since at least that will have the better screen going for it. Other than people where the higher cost would be a huge challenge and have been saving up for a Switch for a long time I don't get why anyone would buy a Switch now other than the Lite.

Depends on if the games get boosted performance or visuals on Switch 2.

If not, I can see the Switch 1 still selling well. They could do a price cut and that will help numbers too. If not Nintendo, retailers will likely do price cuts to clear out stock for the Switch 2.

If its the same performance and the Switch 2 cost more than the OLED, I can see older Switches still selling decently.