In at least a few ways, Nintendo is in unprecedented territory. The Switch is their first hybrid platform. It is currently their second-best selling platform ever, and it's a reasonable prediction that it could eclipse the DS.
Nintendo's radio silence (for now) for the rest of the year (besides Pikmin 4 and Pokemon DLC) and next year does suggest a Switch 2 is coming out at least by the end of Q1 2025. It's pretty likely Switch 2 could launch at any quarter in 2024 past Q1 (the end of the fiscal year).
But let's imagine Nintendo drags the Switch out even further. Do we have some historical precedence for this? Yes, we do. The Game Boy launched in Japan and NA in 1989 (most other regions followed in 1990). The Game Boy Color didn't launch until Q4 1998, and the Game Boy Advance didn't launch until the first half of 2001. I mentioned both of these platforms because there is still a debate whether or not the GBC is a midgen upgrade or a successor.
Nintendo wants Switch to have a long-life cycle, but whether or not that means a very long-life cycle before replacement is yet to be determined.
What would happen if Switch didn't get a successor until Q4 2026? What games and potential new iterations of the Switch could we see? And do you think it could be possible for Switch to have a Pro, 4K, or Deluxe branded version that launches at some point between Q2 2024 and Q4 2026 that is a Game Boy Color situation all over again? And then would it be possible to have a Switch 2 wait all the way until Q4 2028 or later?
There's no time like the present to bring up this discussion, because we could get new hardware announced early 2024 or sooner.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)
PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 67 million (was 60 million)
PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima