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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - If Nintendo waits a long time for a Switch successor, what do you think will happen?

In at least a few ways, Nintendo is in unprecedented territory. The Switch is their first hybrid platform. It is currently their second-best selling platform ever, and it's a reasonable prediction that it could eclipse the DS.

Nintendo's radio silence (for now) for the rest of the year (besides Pikmin 4 and Pokemon DLC) and next year does suggest a Switch 2 is coming out at least by the end of Q1 2025. It's pretty likely Switch 2 could launch at any quarter in 2024 past Q1 (the end of the fiscal year). 

But let's imagine Nintendo drags the Switch out even further. Do we have some historical precedence for this? Yes, we do. The Game Boy launched in Japan and NA in 1989 (most other regions followed in 1990). The Game Boy Color didn't launch until Q4 1998, and the Game Boy Advance didn't launch until the first half of 2001. I mentioned both of these platforms because there is still a debate whether or not the GBC is a midgen upgrade or a successor.

Nintendo wants Switch to have a long-life cycle, but whether or not that means a very long-life cycle before replacement is yet to be determined. 

What would happen if Switch didn't get a successor until Q4 2026? What games and potential new iterations of the Switch could we see? And do you think it could be possible for Switch to have a Pro, 4K, or Deluxe branded version that launches at some point between Q2 2024 and Q4 2026 that is a Game Boy Color situation all over again? And then would it be possible to have a Switch 2 wait all the way until Q4 2028 or later? 

There's no time like the present to bring up this discussion, because we could get new hardware announced early 2024 or sooner. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 67 million (was 60 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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Nintendo is fairly consistent with directs. For the last couple years they've had a direct in February detailing the first half of the year (with one or two announcements that might bleed into the second half). They have a focused direct or two in between, as well as an indie showcase in April or May. In June they have a direct that shows games for the last half of the year. Almost every direct they've had outside of 2020 has done this the order is a little jumbled in 2018 as well).

The only thing that is indicating a replacement is imminent is the age of the Switch. But the game line up currently is not a good indicator as it can change at any moment.

Now if they DONT have a June direct and they also don't show anything in August/September...then I'll agree with you. But, right now, it's par for the course



Let's see what happens end of this month of early to mid July for a direct. If nothing then Nintendo is phasing out the Switch and ready to announce a successor within the next 6-9 months.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

What would happen is Nintendo would see a massive decline in revenue from hardware and software sales falling drastically. By the end of 2024 the Switch's momentum will be slowing rapidly so 2026 would be an abysmal business decision.



Probably cloud gaming. It already feels (IE I haven't made an excel sheet) that they are missing out on a ton of third party games. And the others they are getting are "cloud" versions. So that would continue.

The game boy color wait for it.. brought color. The difference between black and white and color was huge. From 1080 to 4k? Not really. It is nice for some big games, but nothing Nintendo is doing.

The rest I'm not sure anyone would mind. They would still release first party games. People would still buy them hand over fist.
It would just come down to third parties deciding if it was the time/money/effort to port a game to system that old/under powered.



You are bound to love Earthbound.

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Norion said:

What would happen is Nintendo would see a massive decline in revenue from hardware and software sales falling drastically. By the end of 2024 the Switch's momentum will be slowing rapidly so 2026 would be an abysmal business decision.

Given what we know for now, it seems like a bad decision. If Nintendo doesn't release a late-stage Pro and have at least 1-2 more heavyhitters, the Switch would likely be down to 5-7 million a year by 2026 when a successor would launch. And considering how successful Switch has been, that's lower than Nintendo would want.

I didn't mention some of the other circumstances of the Game Boy in the OP. Nintendo didn't plan to ride out the Game Boy until 1998 with the Color and 2001 with the Advance. Those were a result of circumstance, namely that a Game Boy successor with similar specs to the GBA was shelved in the mid-90s due to cost. Virtual Boy launched and died from 1995-1996. If it succeeded, it probably would've leeched some resources away from the Game Boy, even if it wasn't a successor like the DS was to the GBA (despite initially being called a "third pillar"). And of course, Pokemon gave new wind to the rapidly aging Game Boy. Enough to keep it afloat a little longer and come out with the Color. And lastly, there were multiple home consoles alongside the Game Boy during its life. 

The Switch has none of the circumstances I mentioned above. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 67 million (was 60 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Pretty sure the pro was planned and dev kits were sent out but due to Covid and other factors those plans were canceled and dev kits were sent back. Pro aint happening now.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

Wman1996 said:
Norion said:

What would happen is Nintendo would see a massive decline in revenue from hardware and software sales falling drastically. By the end of 2024 the Switch's momentum will be slowing rapidly so 2026 would be an abysmal business decision.

Given what we know for now, it seems like a bad decision. If Nintendo doesn't release a late-stage Pro and have at least 1-2 more heavyhitters, the Switch would likely be down to 5-7 million a year by 2026 when a successor would launch. And considering how successful Switch has been, that's lower than Nintendo would want.

I didn't mention some of the other circumstances of the Game Boy in the OP. Nintendo didn't plan to ride out the Game Boy until 1998 with the Color and 2001 with the Advance. Those were a result of circumstance, namely that a Game Boy successor with similar specs to the GBA was shelved in the mid-90s due to cost. Virtual Boy launched and died from 1995-1996. If it succeeded, it probably would've leeched some resources away from the Game Boy, even if it wasn't a successor like the DS was to the GBA (despite initially being called a "third pillar"). And of course, Pokemon gave new wind to the rapidly aging Game Boy. Enough to keep it afloat a little longer and come out with the Color. And lastly, there were multiple home consoles alongside the Game Boy during its life. 

The Switch has none of the circumstances I mentioned above. 

Yeah I've seen people bring up the idea of the Switch lasting a very long time due to how long the Game Boy but that had pretty specific circumstances. Based on the current trajectory 2024 is the clear ideal time and will only not happen if Nintendo messes up and needs some extra time to get Switch 2 software ready.



I'm still sticking with my earliest prediction of the whole thing where the successor of the Switch will launch in the first quarter of 2025 because software will be most needed to repeat something similar to the Switch cycle.

2024 will definitely feel the driest but it'll be understandable.
Although I'm not saying that a late 2024 release can't happen.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

I do think it's likely Nintendo to somewhat follow the trajectory of the GB line, given their parallels in handheld functionality and strong sales. Plus they've still yet to release a true Switch 1.5/Pro or whatever, as the OLED's improvements are fairly small and don't relate to the actual hardware. So I think we'd likely see the Switch Pro in 2024 or even 2025 as a stopgap that can help carry it a few more years. I really think Nintendo intends to stretch out the lifespan of the Switch a decade (which is possible as long as the library continues to be strong - there's already a flood of games on the console). So I think it's very possible we won't see Switch 2 until early 2027.



 

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