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Forums - Sales Discussion - The PlayStation 5 shipped 25.0m units by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

The PlayStation 5 shipped 25.0m units by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 70 million 45 5.74%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 21 2.68%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 57 7.27%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 115 14.67%
 
100.0 - 109.9 million 226 28.83%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 138 17.60%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 90 11.48%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 30 3.83%
 
140.0 - 150.0 million 9 1.15%
 
More than 150 million 53 6.76%
 
Total:784

It's this time of the year again. The PS5 is closing in on being a full two years old, so let's see where everyone's expectations for its lifetime sales stand at the moment. While the PS5 managed to add only 11.6m to its total during the past year (shipments from October 1st 2021 to September 30th 2022), it's well-known that production shortages pushed down that number.

The ranges in the poll are the same ones for the third time, but that shouldn't be surprising when you consider how young the PS5 still is and how broad the originally set ranges have been.

...

Here are the results from the previous two polls. On both occasions the majority of the votes was distributed across the range of 90-130 million, but 2021 shows a higher average with the scale tipping from the most popular option originally being "a little less than the PS4" to "a little more than the PS4."

Your lifetime sales expectations for PlayStation 5?
Less than 70 million 101 8.27%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 48 3.93%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 97 7.94%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 136 11.14%
 
100.0 - 109.9 million 274 22.44%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 165 13.51%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 176 14.41%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 51 4.18%
 
140.0 - 150.0 million 34 2.78%
 
More than 150 million 139 11.38%
 
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The PlayStation 5 shipped 13.4m units by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?
Less than 70 million 46 5.21%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 26 2.94%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 57 6.46%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 91 10.31%
 
100.0 - 109.9 million 160 18.12%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 158 17.89%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 201 22.76%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 49 5.55%
 
140.0 - 150.0 million 29 3.28%
 
More than 150 million 66 7.47%
 
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Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

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...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

I think this will be the longest gen yet. And there will be a pro. So i expect this to be a good one for sony. At low end 140m. Could beat the ps2.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

I expect that PS5 will be able to make up some of the deficit fairly easily once production increases. However, once demand is no longer inflated by production limitations it will level out after a period of time and, overall, PS5 will be just shy of matching the PS4s numbers.

Edit: in other words, PS5 will have a fast increase and higher height than the PS4 did (i.e. higher than 20M) but this won't be maintained. 



So in that first thread from 2020 I ticked the 110-120 million poll option. I looked up my post using InternetArchive, and at the time I said my personal range was 107-117 million.

Unfortunately I couldn't find my post for the second, more recent thread. But I can see I ticked the 120-130 million box, so I'd obviously revised my estimate up slightly.

I think PS5 & Xbox Series will sell 175-185 million combined by the end of the generation. The question then becomes the split. Right now PS5 has 58.5% market share. I think the next few quarters it's going to increase that share quite significantly, before some of the increased market share is eaten into by Xbox Series in the middle and towards the end of the gen. For now I'll go with a 60:40 split, which would put PS5 at 105-111 million. I ticked the 110-120 option because I think the higher end is slightly more likely than the lower end.



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My usual vote for 100m - 109.9m ain't changing yet.



I voted 110-120m the first two times, but I think I'm upping it to 120-130m simply because I'm becoming increasingly convinced this generation will be at least a year longer than the usual 7 year cycle. With the slow start to the generation and the way graphical leaps are becoming less striking, I just don't see a PS6 releasing only 5 years from now.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2022 predictions:

  • Switch - 24m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

At this point, almost certainly 75-115m with the closer to the extremities being increasingly unlikely. I don’t think Sony has done anything to increase userbase of PlayStation 5 over Playstation 4, and it has more friction and fewer advantages when compared to the PS4. So, at best, it will maintain most of its ecosystem, but a range of 90-100m will be increasingly more likely. I’d say if it’s good fortune if PS5 goes above 100m, and bad fortune if it goes below 90m. Almost completely out of the question that it’s outside the 75m-115m range unless Sony has a mid-gen killer app, if they do something ridiculous and bomb, or if something happens with the competition to lower the friction. A year or so after Switch 2 is announced, friction will be skyrocket - assuming Nintendo doesn’t pull another N64, Gamecube, 3DS, or Wii U. If Nintendo launches a successful Switch 2 in May 2023, or autumn 2023, then heavy friction will be felt by holiday season 2024 or beginning of 2025 on PS5 sales quickening its sales decline. If Sony releases some surprise killer app, it could drive the curve out further, even cause a massive jump in sales similarly to how Animal Crossing took Switch to new levels during year 4.


I’ll just average it and say ~95m is the most probable range currently.

There, I made a serious answer for once :)

Last edited by Jumpin - on 07 November 2022

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

If the PS6 comes out in 2027 somewhat below the PS4, if it comes out 2028 somewhat above it.



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